Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
334 PM EDT Mon May 29 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in Effect for Portions of North
and Central Georgia until 9 PM EDT...

As expected, with ample instability in place, thunderstorms are
quickly developing, primarily in association with an impulse moving
from eastern Alabama into western Georgia. Thunderstorm coverage
will continue to increase, especially ahead of this disturbance as
it traverses the CWA through this evening. SBCAPE values have
already reached in excess of 2000-2500 J/kg which will contribute to
thunderstorm intensification and the increasing possibility of some
severe thunderstorms. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat
in the strongest storms with steep low level lapse rates and
plentiful moisture. While some hail is possible, less impressive mid-
level lapse rates will tend to reduce the large hail threat a bit.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will gradually diminish
overnight after sunset as daytime heating is lost and the
aforementioned impulse moves eastward.

The cold/stationary front currently residing to our northwest will
continue to slowly sag into to our area on Tuesday. The proximity of
this boundary as well as continuing southwest flow aloft will
contribute to additional scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday afternoon. Deep layer shear will not be a factor tomorrow as
it is today, so while showers and thunderstorms can again be
expected on Tuesday, threat for strong/severe thunderstorms will be
low.

RW

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Models are coming into better agreement for the late week system.
Confidence is increasing on showers/tstorms and have therefore
increased probabilities. No other major changes planned. Previous
Long Term discussion follows...

17

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
The long term remains unsettled with basically a west or
southwest flow aloft across the southern states...and low pressure
continuing across the Great Lakes. A moist air mass is expected
to persist and a series of short waves will cross the area through
the period. Breaks in the precipitation will be hard to time. So
the overall pattern remains similar with chance or slight chance
pops each period. GFS/ECMWF hint at a surface front pushing into
GA Wednesday night into Thursday with somewhat drier air but not
confident enough on this to make any big pop changes.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update... Scattered thunderstorms will be in proximity to TAF
sites through this evening with locally gusty winds and MVFR
ceilings/IFR vsbys in and near thunderstorms. Outside of
thunderstorms primarily VFR conditions can be anticipated this
evening. MVFR ceilings are possible by Tuesday morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are again expected by Tuesday afternoon.
Winds will be westerly through the period.

CONFIDENCE... Medium confidence on ceilings Tuesday morning.
High confidence other elements.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  81  64  85 /  60  40  20  20
Atlanta         67  79  65  83 /  60  40  20  20
Blairsville     60  78  58  78 /  60  30  20  30
Cartersville    65  80  62  83 /  60  40  20  20
Columbus        70  84  67  86 /  30  40  20  20
Gainesville     65  79  64  82 /  60  40  20  20
Macon           68  85  66  86 /  30  40  20  20
Rome            65  82  61  84 /  60  40  20  30
Peachtree City  66  80  63  83 /  50  40  20  20
Vidalia         72  89  70  89 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 PM EDT this evening for the
following zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...
Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...
Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...DeKalb...Douglas...Fayette...
Forsyth...Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...
Harris...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...
Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Macon...Madison...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North
Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...
Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...
Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...
Warren...Washington...Webster...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
434 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-300845-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
434 AM EDT Mon May 29 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

A few thunderstorms may become severe mainly this afternoon and
evening.

A frontal boundary will approach north Georgia today...giving
increased chances for showers and thunderstorms. Afternoon heating
will help to support a few strong to severe thunderstorms with
damaging wind gusts and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

A moist and unstable air mass will remain over north and central
Georgia through the period. There will be a chance of showers and
thunderstorms each day...a few storms possibly severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

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