Alert archive / Georgia / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

May 23, 2017Crisp County, Georgia

NWS Atlanta, GA issued this special weather statement at May 23, 2017, 12:07 PM EDT for Crisp County, Georgia. It was in force for 23 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
May 23, 2017, 12:07 PM EDT (16:07 UTC)
Expired
May 23, 2017, 12:30 PM EDT
In force
23 min
Issued by
NWS Atlanta, GA
Wind
40

County Crisp County, GA

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 97 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Tallahassee Rgnl, FL (KTLH), launched 12:00Z, 4.1 hours before the alert went out and 175 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2017-05-23Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 205 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Tallahassee Rgnl, FL at 12:00Z on 2017-05-23The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 91 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
205 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-36 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
885 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
91 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
185 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
1.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 23, 7:30 AM EDT, 4 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 23, 7:30 AM EDT, 4 hours 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
730 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 351 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017/

..Flash Flood Watch Continues Through Wednesday...

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Regional surface analysis shows main low pressure system is over
southern Louisiana but several waves exist along boundary
including current weak trough that extends through the Atlanta
metro. Thus far with first shortwave that has moved
through...rainfall rates have remained manageable but continue to
see embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms that put out a
quick half an inch.

This all sets the stage for additional rounds of potential heavy
precip...the next of which looks to be associated with stronger
shortwave arriving toward 12Z. The NAM12 continues to indicate a
very strong 850mb jet feature with this activity in excess of 50
kts for the southern tier. Thinking this is probably in excess of
what is realized and GFS 40 kt representation looks more on
target. Regardless...this should allow for embedded heavier
showers and storms...especially along and south of I85 with 2 inch
rainfall totals common. Within this average basin average will
likely be pockets of 3 to as high as 4 inches which is why we will
be expanding the current flash flood watch to include all of our
SE portions.

With potential for meso lows to track across the southern CWA and
0-1km helicity increasing to 300 to 400 m2/s2...there is a threat
of severe storms with winds and isolated tornadoes the main
concerns. As low passes east of the area...should see some
opportunity for the atmosphere to settle down and allow for drier
conditions. Not ready to go as dry as some of the models but can
certainly go with some chance pops at this point for Tue
afternoon.

Final push for the short term comes overnight with main shortwave
moving into the area with widespread storms once again. Nam12 has
yet another strong jet for the southern tier with impressive 60
kts at 850mb which again is likely overdone but does represent to
potential dynamics associated with this system. Mid level temps
continue to cool allowing for lapse rates approaching 7 and a
decidedly more convectively favorable environment. Low level
helicity will once again have no trouble reaching 100 to 200 m2/s2
up to 1km and tornado threat will be present once again through
mid morning Wed.

Should be decidedly drier behind this wave but with mid level
temps plummeting to -21C...certainly cannot rule out a final band
of storms pushing through Wed afternoon as NAM tries to indicate.
Although lack of instability will preclude large hail
likely...larger amounts of smaller hail looks like a good bet.

Deese

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

Much of the area will be on the backside of deep moisture plume and
associated cold front by Wednesday night with anomalously cold upper
level low approaching from the northwest. Breezy and much cooler
conditions will prevail into Thursday with clouds and scattered
showers across north Georgia. Lapse rates appear steep enough to
support a few embedded thunderstorms, again mainly north of I-20.
Small hail will be possible with any storms. By late Thursday into
Thursday night, drier air will work across the area and any
showers/storms will diminish.

Temperatures will gradually moderate closer to normal Friday into
the weekend as an upper level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico builds
slowly north. Battle between the GOM ridge and a strong upper trough
digging across the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest occurs over the
weekend creating an increasingly zonal flow across the area,
especially north GA. Moisture will begin to increase as this occurs
with chances for rain picking up late Saturday into Sunday. Medium
range models appear to deepen longwave trough across the eastern
CONUS thus resulting in an extended period of rain setting up once
again - Sunday into Monday - across the Southeast region. However,
this is 5 to 6 days out and things will likely change.

DJN.83

.AVIATION... 12Z UPDATE...

Yet another very challenging cig forecast for the next 24 to 36
hours with a series of weak areas of low pressure moving across
the terminals. Cigs thus far have shown considerable variance but overall
trend to IFR and LIFR with continued SHRA. Models holding onto
low cigs a little longer and will follow suit in keeping til 16Z.
Winds will be tricky as well with the vicinity of low but should
stay mostly light SW at this point. Another round of predominant
SHRA overnight with prob30 for TSRA through Wed morning.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
Medium on IFR/LIFR duration.
High on remaining elements.

Deese

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  64  75  56 / 100  40  80  30
Atlanta         76  65  75  56 / 100  60  80  30
Blairsville     71  58  69  51 /  90  50  80  40
Cartersville    78  63  74  54 /  80  70  80  40
Columbus        80  67  78  58 / 100  80  80  30
Gainesville     73  63  72  56 / 100  50  80  40
Macon           77  67  78  57 / 100  60  80  40
Rome            77  62  74  54 /  70  70  80  40
Peachtree City  76  64  76  55 / 100  70  80  30
Vidalia         81  69  78  62 /  90  70  80  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for the following
zones: Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...
Carroll...Chattahoochee...Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...
Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...
Emanuel...Fayette...Forsyth...Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett...
Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Houston...
Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...
Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...
Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...
Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...
Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...
Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...Deese
Hazardous weather outlook, May 23, 10:40 AM EDT, 1 hour 27 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1040 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-241445-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1040 AM EDT Tue May 23 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA THROUGH 6 PM
THIS EVENING...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND ALL OF CENTRAL
GA THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

Increased instability and wind shear for this afternoon into
evening will allow for isolated tornado potential across portions
of central Georgia...mainly along and south of a Columbus to Macon
to Jeffersonville line. A Tornado Watch has been issued
accordingly until 6 PM this evening. There is also a threat for
some strong winds and severe potential. Along with the
severe/tornado threat, heavy rainfall will allow for the continued
flooding potential...with higher confidence along and south of
Interstate 20.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

A small break in widespread storm coverage is expected through
this evening before additional thunderstorms develop overnight
and continue through Wednesday afternoon. Some strong to isolated
severe thunderstorms will be possible with damaging winds, hail,
and heavy rainfall being the primary threats although isolated
tornadoes will also be possible. Total rainfall amounts forecast
through Wednesday will average 1 to 3 inches with some isolated 4
inch totals...especially across portions of Central Georgia.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged
to submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 23, 11:38 AM EDT, 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1138 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

GAZ108>110-231615-
Telfair GA-Wilcox GA-Dodge GA-
1138 AM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN TELFAIR...EASTERN
WILCOX AND SOUTHWESTERN DODGE COUNTIES UNTIL 1215 PM EDT...

At 1137 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Rebecca, or 13 miles
northeast of Ashburn...moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Abbeville, Rochelle, Rhine, Temperance, Browning, Double Run, Antioch
Church and Owensboro.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3183 8315 3185 8318 3184 8323 3185 8339
      3185 8359 3208 8329 3200 8312 3184 8311
      3182 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 1537Z 242DEG 30KT 3182 8347

WIND...40MPH
Special weather statement, May 23, 12:07 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1207 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

GAZ104>106-231630-
Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Sumter GA-
1207 PM EDT TUE MAY 23 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRISP...SOUTHERN DOOLY
AND SOUTHEASTERN SUMTER COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

At 1207 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Chokee, or 14 miles
northeast of Leesburg...moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cordele, Vienna, Leslie, De Soto, Desoto, Cobb, East Crisp, Georgia
Veterans Memorial St Pk, Richwood and Raines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3186 8393 3190 8393 3191 8392 3192 8412
      3193 8413 3215 8379 3202 8367 3193 8367
      3185 8394
TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 242DEG 29KT 3189 8401

WIND...40MPH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Atlanta, GA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 22, 8:18 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCEmanuel27 min
May 23, 5:18 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCMontgomery, Toombs27 min
May 23, 5:52 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCHarris, Talbot23 min
May 23, 11:38 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCWilcox37 min
May 23, 12:28 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCDooly32 min
May 23, 12:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCCrisp, Dooly, Pulaski, Wilcox36 min
May 23, 1:09 PM EDTTornado Warning Tornado observedFFCCrisp, Dooly, Sumter36 min
May 23, 1:30 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCMontgomery30 min
May 23, 1:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCCrisp30 min
May 23, 1:41 PM EDTTornado WarningFFCDooly34 min
May 23, 1:42 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCMontgomery, Toombs36 min
May 23, 1:47 PM EDTTornado WarningFFCCrisp, Wilcox28 min
May 23, 2:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCWilcox29 min
May 23, 2:25 PM EDTTornado WarningFFCDodge, Telfair, Wilcox17 min
May 23, 2:41 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCTelfair34 min
May 23, 3:00 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCMontgomery, Telfair, Wheeler30 min
May 23, 6:36 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCFloyd24 min
May 23, 6:59 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCFloyd31 min
May 23, 7:18 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningFFCFloyd6 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Georgia, 2017Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.