Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
754 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017

.UPDATE...

Added some patchy dense fog mention for next couple hours and
issued associated Special Weather Statement for a portion of north
GA given how obs have trended recently in the wake of some
enhanced low level moisture and early morning cooling (mainly just
north of Atlanta over to Athens area). Updated 12z Aviation
section also below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Tricky pop fcst continues ahead of dampening upper shortwave and
broad translated sfc low. Some convection has been focused this
morning in portions of north GA where low level convergence near a
quasi-stationary/warm front has aided lift...though could see
scattered showers or thunderstorms form almost anywhere in the CWA
with increased PVA ahead of the trough axis. Progged instability
axis becomes more confined to central GA by midday/afternoon.
Thinking we could again see some strong storms or even a few
severe later today but more confined to SE central GA where the
greater CAPE could be attained. Shear parameters aren't impressive
and any marginal deep layer shear stays farther south and east,
but decent mid level lapse rates could aid updrafts and a few
cells could result in some large hail with cooling temps aloft.
Thinking greatest chance for any strong/severe would be near Macon
and farther south/east.

Upper wave axis gets east of the CWA by this evening, allowing for
scattering/clearing and transition to NW flow aloft and upper ridge
building in. Pleasant Sunday on tap accordingly with mostly sunny
and afternoon dewpoints in the low 50s for many locations. Resultant
daytime highs should stay close to slightly above climo norms in the
low to mid 80s for most of the CWA.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
A fairly quiet pattern for the long term with dry weather
expected through Wednesday as high pressure surface and aloft
dominate our weather. As the upper ridge drifts east...surface
high pressure moves into the western atlantic with a low level
southerly flow developing starting Tuesday. This will lead to
mainly small pops for n and portions of central Ga for Thursday
and Friday for some diurnal showers and storms...tending to favor
the ne mountains.

Also with the low level flow becoming southerly on Tuesday and the
rest of the long term...smoke from the large wildfire in se GA
will move over the forecast area and could eventually make it to
the ATL metro area.

Temperatures will warm to well above normal for highs and lows this
period starting with Monday highs.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Mainly MVFR or high end IFR cigs this morning (some LIFR near
KAHN). Main region of showers and TS moving across southern sites
initially, otherwise should see some spotty showers before low
pressure system pushes eastward today. Some VCSH could linger into
the afternoon before all said and done. Winds either SW or light
and VRB then northern sites possibly going NE from about 13-18z,
then NW with some low end gusts in the afternoon and potential to
go NE again after about 04z tonight. Expect gradual improvement of
cigs and scattering today (SKC overnight).

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low to medium on early cig trend and precip coverage.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          76  56  83  59 /  60  10   0   0
Atlanta         76  59  82  63 /  60   5   0   0
Blairsville     72  48  79  52 /  30   5   0   0
Cartersville    76  53  83  57 /  40   0   0   0
Columbus        79  62  85  62 /  60   5   5   0
Gainesville     74  56  81  60 /  50   5   0   0
Macon           80  60  85  58 /  60  10   0   0
Rome            77  53  83  56 /  30   0   0   0
Peachtree City  77  56  83  57 /  60   5   0   0
Vidalia         83  64  85  62 /  60  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
435 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-141000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
435 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of
central Georgia mainly south and east of Macon, today.
The main hazards will be Strong Gusty Winds, Hail, Frequent
Lightning and Brief Heavy Rain.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible north and west
of Macon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

No hazardous weather is expected Sunday through Wednesday.
There is a chance for thunderstorms over portions of north and
central Georgia Thursday and Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested but spotters are encouraged to
submit storm reports through the web by going to weather.gov/atlanta.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1029 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2017

GAZ095-096-107-131500-
Houston GA-Bleckley GA-Pulaski GA-
1029 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN HOUSTON...BLECKLEY
AND NORTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 AM EDT...

At 1028 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Ocmulgee Public
Fishing Area, or 7 miles west of Cochran...moving east at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Frequent cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Lightning is one of nature's leading killers. If you can
           hear thunder...you are close enough to be struck by
           lightning. Heavy rain may cause temporary street flooding
           especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cochran, Hawkinsville, Coley Station, Mobley Crossing, Baileys Park,
Magnolia, Royal, Ocmulgee Public Fishing Area, Paulk, Goldsboro,
Rebie, Cary, Pulaski State Prison, Porter and Empire.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.  Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3247 8358 3249 8349 3246 8350 3246 8349
      3249 8341 3251 8340 3250 8340 3252 8336
      3255 8321 3247 8316 3244 8316 3245 8318
      3234 8330 3232 8329 3229 8332 3229 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 1428Z 262DEG 21KT 3239 8348