Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
754 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017

.UPDATE...

Added some patchy dense fog mention for next couple hours and
issued associated Special Weather Statement for a portion of north
GA given how obs have trended recently in the wake of some
enhanced low level moisture and early morning cooling (mainly just
north of Atlanta over to Athens area). Updated 12z Aviation
section also below.

Baker

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 326 AM EDT Sat May 13 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
Tricky pop fcst continues ahead of dampening upper shortwave and
broad translated sfc low. Some convection has been focused this
morning in portions of north GA where low level convergence near a
quasi-stationary/warm front has aided lift...though could see
scattered showers or thunderstorms form almost anywhere in the CWA
with increased PVA ahead of the trough axis. Progged instability
axis becomes more confined to central GA by midday/afternoon.
Thinking we could again see some strong storms or even a few
severe later today but more confined to SE central GA where the
greater CAPE could be attained. Shear parameters aren't impressive
and any marginal deep layer shear stays farther south and east,
but decent mid level lapse rates could aid updrafts and a few
cells could result in some large hail with cooling temps aloft.
Thinking greatest chance for any strong/severe would be near Macon
and farther south/east.

Upper wave axis gets east of the CWA by this evening, allowing for
scattering/clearing and transition to NW flow aloft and upper ridge
building in. Pleasant Sunday on tap accordingly with mostly sunny
and afternoon dewpoints in the low 50s for many locations. Resultant
daytime highs should stay close to slightly above climo norms in the
low to mid 80s for most of the CWA.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
A fairly quiet pattern for the long term with dry weather
expected through Wednesday as high pressure surface and aloft
dominate our weather. As the upper ridge drifts east...surface
high pressure moves into the western atlantic with a low level
southerly flow developing starting Tuesday. This will lead to
mainly small pops for n and portions of central Ga for Thursday
and Friday for some diurnal showers and storms...tending to favor
the ne mountains.

Also with the low level flow becoming southerly on Tuesday and the
rest of the long term...smoke from the large wildfire in se GA
will move over the forecast area and could eventually make it to
the ATL metro area.

Temperatures will warm to well above normal for highs and lows this
period starting with Monday highs.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Mainly MVFR or high end IFR cigs this morning (some LIFR near
KAHN). Main region of showers and TS moving across southern sites
initially, otherwise should see some spotty showers before low
pressure system pushes eastward today. Some VCSH could linger into
the afternoon before all said and done. Winds either SW or light
and VRB then northern sites possibly going NE from about 13-18z,
then NW with some low end gusts in the afternoon and potential to
go NE again after about 04z tonight. Expect gradual improvement of
cigs and scattering today (SKC overnight).

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Low to medium on early cig trend and precip coverage.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          76  56  83  59 /  60  10   0   0
Atlanta         76  59  82  63 /  60   5   0   0
Blairsville     72  48  79  52 /  30   5   0   0
Cartersville    76  53  83  57 /  40   0   0   0
Columbus        79  62  85  62 /  60   5   5   0
Gainesville     74  56  81  60 /  50   5   0   0
Macon           80  60  85  58 /  60  10   0   0
Rome            77  53  83  56 /  30   0   0   0
Peachtree City  77  56  83  57 /  60   5   0   0
Vidalia         83  64  85  62 /  60  20   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...Baker

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