Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
202 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1055 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017/

UPDATE...

Warm front continues moving north with widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity along and north of the boundary. As the
area I-20 and southward is now in the warm sector, the threat for
more widespread severe weather will increase through the remainder
of the day. Some breaks in cloud cover in central Georgia are
providing for increased instability. Expect supercells currently
in Alabama to continue their track into our CWA as well as
additional convective development. With increasing instability in
the warm sector, impressive shear, and lapse rates around 7 C/km
the threat for tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds will
continue to increase. Threat will remain until cold front begins
sweeping through the area this evening. Flash flood risk also
remains, especially within the Flash Flood Watch which was
extended slightly farther north and includes a good portion of
north and central Georgia.

RW

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 739 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017/

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 348 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Severe weather is expected across much of Georgia today. Be ready
to execute your severe weather plan in case a Severe Thunderstorm
Warning or Tornado Warning is issued for your location. Keep a
way to receive weather warnings nearby - such as a NOAA weather
radio or your smart phone. Please stay weather aware today, and
stay safe out there.

A very vigorous storm system will impact the CWFA today. There
could be several rounds of severe thunderstorms today, so don't
let your guard down if you experience relatively quiet conditions
for a period of time. The first round of severe weather is
currently impacting portions of southern Alabama and the Florida
panhandle. This activity is associated with a northward moving
warm front. This warm front is expected to move into SW GA early
this morning and keep moving to near the I-20 corridor by
daybreak. South of the warm front, the airmass is very unstable
and lapse rates are very steep for this time of the morning.
Reports of up to half dollar sized hail have been reported across
portions of SE AL. With this first round of thunderstorms, expect
the primary modes of severe weather to be large hail (up to 2
inches possible) and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either, as the front will
provide an excellent source of low level shear.

The warm front may end up settling somewhere in the vicinity of
the northern 'burbs of Atlanta by mid morning. This means that
most of the CWFA will be in the warm sector for the afternoon. The
atmosphere should have enough time to recuperate from the morning
storms, and become very unstable during the peak heating of the
afternoon - especially if the clouds begin to break. All the
ingredients for severe weather will be present: strong mid and
upper level forcing, strong surface instability, plenty of deep
level shear, a 40-50kt 850mb jet, etc. This will be the time that
discreet cells ahead of the front are expected to develop and
supercells will be likely. (Prime time for tornado development.)

The actual cold front isn't expected to move through until later
in the evening and into the overnight hours. The actual front will
provide enough focus for additional storms well into the evening
and overnight. However, the atmosphere *may* be worked over enough
by the time the front moves through that the coverage and
*possibly* severity of the storms may decrease. However, not
entirely confident on this situation - so continue to stay weather
aware even after the sun sets.

There is plenty of much cooler air behind this system and
Thursday's will be a (relatively) cold and windy day. A Wind
Advisory will likely be needed, but don't want to over complicate
the headlines for today.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Extended period largely overshadowed by short term severe threat.
Following the aforementioned system, wrap around moisture will
linger over the northeast Georgia mountains through Friday morning,
with the potential for some mixed precip as temperatures drop into
the low to mid 30s. For now, have limited the p-type to rain or
snow, and will need to revisit this in subsequent forecast packages.
Not expecting any accumulations at this time. Will also need to
consider issuing a Freeze Warning for this area given the expected
low temperatures.

Below normal temperatures expected Friday will slowly warm through
the weekend, with highs in the 60s on Saturday and the mid to upper
70s on Sunday with sunny skies. High pressure will hold through the
weekend and into next week, with the next system approaching late
Tuesday - a tad slower than the previous model runs. GFS and ECMWF
differ in timing by 6-12 hours, with the better activity currently
timed for Wednesday. For now have limited pops to good chance.
Temperatures will generally stay in the mid 70s to near 80 through
next week.

31

HYDROLOGY...
Widespread QPF amounts of 1.5 to 2.25 inches still look to be
handled well across middle Georgia today. Flash Flood Guidance
suggests that the area can handle these rainfall amounts, even if
they were to fall in a one to three hour time frame. WPC does have
the area outlooked for a slight risk of flash flooding, and isolated
flash flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly as storms train
over the same area, or where localized rainfall amounts are higher.
Site specific headwater forecasts are largely keeping river gage
locations at or below action stage following the precipitation
today. Modeled precipitable water values remain near seasonal
maximums, and expect high rainfall rates from efficient storms. Have
opted to issue a Flash Flood Watch mainly along the Interstate 20
corridor for the heaviest QPF axis.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Through this afternoon, expect rounds of shower and thunderstorm
activity to affect TAF sites. Expect at least a brief general
break in activity late afternoon at Atlanta area sites before
additional convection over Alabama potentially affects TAF sites
late this evening. Expect MVFR ceilings and occasional IFR
visibility in and near convection. Variable to southeasterly winds
initially at ATL area sites should trend to southwest late
afternoon. Overnight winds will become westerly and gusty behind a
cold front and remain westerly and gusty on Thursday.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium confidence on all elements through this evening.
High confidence on winds tonight into Thursday.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  50  57  41 /  80  60  20   5
Atlanta         73  48  56  42 /  80  60  20   5
Blairsville     67  44  49  34 /  70  60  40  30
Cartersville    75  48  55  41 /  70  60  30  10
Columbus        78  51  63  45 /  80  60  10   0
Gainesville     71  47  53  40 /  80  60  30  10
Macon           78  51  62  43 /  80  70  10   0
Rome            77  48  56  41 /  70  60  30   5
Peachtree City  74  49  58  41 /  80  60  20   0
Vidalia         82  54  64  45 /  80  70  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for the following zones:
Baldwin...Banks...Barrow...Bartow...Bibb...Butts...Carroll...
Cherokee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...
DeKalb...Douglas...Fayette...Forsyth...Glascock...Greene...
Gwinnett...Hall...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...
Jackson...Jasper...Jones...Lamar...Madison...Meriwether...
Monroe...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...
Oglethorpe...Paulding...Pike...Polk...Putnam...Rockdale...South
Fulton...Spalding...Talbot...Taliaferro...Troup...Upson...
Walton...Warren...Wilkes.

Tornado Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee...
Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...
Hancock...Harris...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...
Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Peach...Pike...Pulaski...
Putnam...Schley...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...
Twiggs...Upson...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...
Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
656 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
656 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today into
tonight. Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, large hail to 2" in
size or greater, and several tornadoes will be main hazards. A
few of the tornadoes could be strong and have long tracks on the
ground, causing extensive damage. Heavy rain can also be expected
with minor flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Strong and gusty winds can be expected on Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time Friday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is requested for today through this evening
across north and central Georgia. Spotters are also encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
149 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

GAZ039-051830-
Wilkes GA-
149 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILKES COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 149 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Newtown, or near
Washington...moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Washington, Tignall, Rayle, Jacksons Crossroads, Mallorysville,
Newtown, Delhi, Norman, Danburg, Celeste, Metasville and Floral Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3366 8289 3378 8299 3380 8298 3398 8274
      3399 8266 3398 8265 3386 8261 3387 8258
      3387 8257 3384 8258 3383 8260 3372 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 1749Z 252DEG 38KT 3380 8278

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
203 PM EDT WED APR 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             PENFIELD                33.67N  83.18W
04/05/2017  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN PENFIELD GA

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700499

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
212 PM EDT WED APR 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HAIL             VALLEYWOOD CORNERS      33.47N  84.59W
04/05/2017  E1.25 INCH       FAYETTE            GA   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN TYRONE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700500

KING

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
248 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

GAZ106-108-051930-
Crisp GA-Wilcox GA-
248 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN CRISP AND SOUTHWESTERN
WILCOX COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 248 PM EDT...National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm over Warwick, or 13 miles southwest of Cordele...
moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind and enhanced risk of a brief tornado.

  IMPACT...While winds should result in minor damage to tree limbs
           and blowing around of light...unsecured objects...this
           storm has also exhibited localized rotation. A brief
           tornado could quickly form.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Arabi, Double Run, Fort Early, Owensboro and Raines.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately.

LAT...LON 3181 8383 3183 8384 3182 8385 3184 8386
      3185 8394 3186 8394 3186 8393 3188 8393
      3191 8392 3189 8343 3185 8340 3185 8361
      3180 8361 3180 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 260DEG 51KT 3184 8395

WIND...50MPH