Severe Thunderstorm Warning 123, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
348 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
Severe weather is expected across much of Georgia today. Be ready
to execute your severe weather plan in case a Severe Thunderstorm
Warning or Tornado Warning is issued for your location. Keep a
way to receive weather warnings nearby - such as a NOAA weather
radio or your smart phone. Please stay weather aware today, and
stay safe out there.

A very vigorous storm system will impact the CWFA today. There
could be several rounds of severe thunderstorms today, so don't
let your guard down if you experience relatively quiet conditions
for a period of time. The first round of severe weather is
currently impacting portions of southern Alabama and the Florida
panhandle. This activity is associated with a northward moving
warm front. This warm front is expected to move into SW GA early
this morning and keep moving to near the I-20 corridor by
daybreak. South of the warm front, the airmass is very unstable
and lapse rates are very steep for this time of the morning.
Reports of up to half dollar sized hail have been reported across
portions of SE AL. With this first round of thunderstorms, expect
the primary modes of severe weather to be large hail (up to 2
inches possible) and damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 MPH. An
isolated tornado cannot be ruled out either, as the front will
provide an excellent source of low level shear.

The warm front may end up settling somewhere in the vicinity of
the northern 'burbs of Atlanta by mid morning. This means that
most of the CWFA will be in the warm sector for the afternoon. The
atmosphere should have enough time to recuperate from the morning
storms, and become very unstable during the peak heating of the
afternoon - especially if the clouds begin to break. All the
ingredients for severe weather will be present: strong mid and
upper level forcing, strong surface instability, plenty of deep
level shear, a 40-50kt 850mb jet, etc. This will be the time that
discreet cells ahead of the front are expected to develop and
supercells will be likely. (Prime time for tornado development.)

The actual cold front isn't expected to move through until later
in the evening and into the overnight hours. The actual front will
provide enough focus for additional storms well into the evening
and overnight. However, the atmosphere *may* be worked over enough
by the time the front moves through that the coverage and
*possibly* severity of the storms may decrease. However, not
entirely confident on this situation - so continue to stay weather
aware even after the sun sets.

There is plenty of much cooler air behind this system and
Thursday's will be a (relatively) cold and windy day. A Wind
Advisory will likely be needed, but don't want to over complicate
the headlines for today.

NListemaa

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
Extended period largely overshadowed by short term severe threat.
Following the aforementioned system, wrap around moisture will
linger over the northeast Georgia mountains through Friday morning,
with the potential for some mixed precip as temperatures drop into
the low to mid 30s. For now, have limited the p-type to rain or
snow, and will need to revisit this in subsequent forecast packages.
Not expecting any accumulations at this time. Will also need to
consider issuing a Freeze Warning for this area given the expected
low temperatures.

Below normal temperatures expected Friday will slowly warm through
the weekend, with highs in the 60s on Saturday and the mid to upper
70s on Sunday with sunny skies. High pressure will hold through the
weekend and into next week, with the next system approaching late
Tuesday - a tad slower than the previous model runs. GFS and ECMWF
differ in timing by 6-12 hours, with the better activity currently
timed for Wednesday. For now have limited pops to good chance.
Temperatures will generally stay in the mid 70s to near 80 through
next week.

31

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Widespread QPF amounts of 1.5 to 2.25 inches still look to be
handled well across middle Georgia today. Flash Flood Guidance
suggests that the area can handle these rainfall amounts, even if
they were to fall in a one to three hour time frame. WPC does have
the area outlooked for a slight risk of flash flooding, and isolated
flash flooding cannot be ruled out, particularly as storms train
over the same area, or where localized rainfall amounts are higher.
Site specific headwater forecasts are largely keeping river gage
locations at or below action stage following the precipitation
today. Modeled precipitable water values remain near seasonal
maximums, and expect high rainfall rates from efficient storms. Have
opted to issue a Flash Flood Watch mainly along the Interstate 20
corridor for the heaviest QPF axis.

&&

AVIATION... 06Z Update... Main changes to the TAF this cycle were
to tweak the timing for the early morning shra/tsra and change
the prob group to a tempo. Several rounds of shra/tsra expected
for the afternoon. Will likely have to tweak the prevailing tsra
wording at later updates.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence all elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          73  50  57  41 /  80  60  20   5
Atlanta         73  48  56  42 /  80  60  20   5
Blairsville     67  44  49  34 /  70  60  40  30
Cartersville    75  48  55  41 /  70  60  30  10
Columbus        78  51  63  45 /  80  60  10   0
Gainesville     71  47  53  40 /  80  60  30  10
Macon           78  51  62  43 /  80  70  10   0
Rome            77  48  56  41 /  70  60  30   5
Peachtree City  74  49  58  41 /  80  60  20   0
Vidalia         82  54  64  45 /  80  70  10   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through late
tonight for the following zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bibb...
Butts...Carroll...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...
DeKalb...Douglas...Fayette...Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett...
Hancock...Haralson...Harris...Heard...Henry...Jackson...Jasper...
Jones...Lamar...Madison...Meriwether...Monroe...Morgan...
Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...
Paulding...Pike...Polk...Putnam...Rockdale...South Fulton...
Spalding...Talbot...Taliaferro...Troup...Upson...Walton...
Warren...Wilkes.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 9 AM EDT this morning for the
following zones: Chattahoochee...Harris...Macon...Marion...
Meriwether...Muscogee...Pike...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...
Talbot...Taylor...Troup...Upson...Webster.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...NListemaa

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
656 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061100-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
656 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected today into
tonight. Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph, large hail to 2" in
size or greater, and several tornadoes will be main hazards. A
few of the tornadoes could be strong and have long tracks on the
ground, causing extensive damage. Heavy rain can also be expected
with minor flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

Strong and gusty winds can be expected on Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time Friday through Monday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is requested for today through this evening
across north and central Georgia. Spotters are also encouraged to
submit reports of severe weather through the web by going to
weather.gov/atlanta.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
518 AM EDT WED APR 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HAIL             HILTON HEIGHTS          32.49N  84.94W
04/05/2017  E0.88 INCH       MUSCOGEE           GA   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700486

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
539 AM EDT WED APR 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HAIL             OGLETREE WOODS          32.52N  84.95W
04/05/2017  E0.75 INCH       MUSCOGEE           GA   PUBLIC

            STORM REPORT OF PENNY SIZED HAIL ALONG ARMOUR RD IN
            COLUMBUS

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700487

THIEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
603 AM EDT WED APR 5 2017

GAZ102-103-051030-
Stewart GA-Webster GA-
603 AM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN STEWART AND WEBSTER
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 AM EDT...

At 603 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Union, or 10 miles
east of Georgetown...moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph...nickel sized hail and frequent
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Lightning is one of nature's
           leading killers. If you can hear thunder...you are close
           enough to be struck by lightning.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lumpkin, Preston, Richland, Weston, Seminole, Troutman, Kimbrough,
Sanford, Westville, Church Hill, Centerpoint and Dumas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency.

LAT...LON 3192 8480 3193 8480 3192 8481 3192 8491
      3195 8496 3198 8496 3198 8498 3223 8462
      3219 8459 3219 8457 3218 8456 3217 8454
      3213 8453 3213 8443 3203 8444 3192 8466
      3193 8468 3192 8469
TIME...MOT...LOC 1003Z 234DEG 49KT 3190 8492

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
640 AM EDT WED APR 5 2017

GAZ102-103-051115-
Stewart GA-Webster GA-
640 AM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN STEWART AND SOUTHERN
WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM EDT...

At 640 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Wades, or near
Cuthbert...moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Preston, Weston, Troutman, Centerpoint, Dumas, Leveretts and
Chambliss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3192 8467 3193 8468 3192 8469 3192 8482
      3210 8443 3193 8444 3192 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 1040Z 246DEG 39KT 3185 8475

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
702 AM EDT WED APR 5 2017

GAZ019-030-041-051200-
Polk GA-Haralson GA-Floyd GA-
702 AM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR POLK...HARALSON AND SOUTHERN
FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM EDT...

At 702 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Borden Springs to Edwardsville...and moving
northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Rome, Cedartown, Buchanan, Bremen, Tallapoosa, Cave Spring, Waco,
Fish Creek, Etna, Lindale, Eubank Lake, Esom Hill, Antioch, Armuchee,
Seney and Felton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3445 8514 3379 8506 3365 8529 3365 8534
      3410 8542
TIME...MOT...LOC 1102Z 218DEG 30KT 3391 8551 3370 8548

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
712 AM EDT WED APR 5 2017

GAZ092-103-104-051200-
Schley GA-Sumter GA-Webster GA-
712 AM EDT WED APR 5 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN SCHLEY...SUMTER AND
WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 800 AM EDT...

At 712 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Dumas, or over
Preston...moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Americus, Preston, Plains, Leslie, Andersonville, De Soto, Desoto,
Weston, Sumter, Lamar, Croxton Crossroads, New Era, La Crosse,
Huntington, Leveretts, Friendship, Maddox, Bumphead, Centerpoint and
Dumas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3197 8444 3193 8444 3192 8446 3192 8458
      3205 8464 3214 8447 3213 8443 3216 8443
      3226 8422 3223 8422 3223 8415 3194 8400
      3191 8431 3192 8434 3191 8434 3191 8438
TIME...MOT...LOC 1112Z 243DEG 32KT 3203 8452

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH