Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
732 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
The potential for severe thunderstorms across portions of the CWFA
remains high today.

A warm front across the Florida panhandle will begin to shift
northward this morning across the southern portion of the CWFA.
Meanwhile, an area of surface low pressure will move out of the
Lower Mississippi River Valley into the Carolinas. In the mid
levels, negatively tilted trough with strong energy in its base will
move through the southeast states through this evening.

The ingredients for severe weather are still present today. However,
not entirely too confident on what effect the advancing rain shield
across central AL will have on the development of thunderstorms
today across far north GA. The HRRR looks to have initialized this
area of widespread showers, with a few strong thunderstorms, very
well this morning as opposed to the locally run wrf/arw. Have
noticed over the last few hours, the eastward advancement of this
rain shield has slowed a bit, and the HRRR does keep most of this
elevated convection out of the CWFA through 11Z-12Z. In addition,
over the past few hi-res model runs, the northern edge of the line
seems to have weakened a bit. This seems reasonable, especially if
the elevated precip begins to spread eastward this morning after 12Z
across northern GA (north of the metro). Even if the northern
portion of the line weakens a bit, strong/isolated severe storms
will still be possible (far north).

However, areas south should experience a bit more surface
instability with the potential for more heating...under a bit less
cloud cover. Convection will have access to good CAPE with values
around 2000 J/KG. Upper/mid level jet dynamics will also come into
play, along with steep lapse rates. The HRRR and our locally run hi-
res models have also been very consistent in the last few runs with
developing discrete convection out ahead of the main system during
the late morning/afternoon in vicinity of the warm front. In fact,
models are progging somewhat steeper lapse rates in the warm sector,
so in addition to the wind threat, large hail will also be a factor.

Wrapping this all up...the potential for severe storms across the
CWFA remains high today. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
severe weather mode. However, large hail cannot be ruled out,
especially in any discrete cells that pop up ahead of the main
system. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible. With high
atmospheric moisture content, convection will be efficient rainfall
producers. Locally heavy rainfall will be likely.

Models do indicate that convection will continue to be possible
after the main system moves through, just on a smaller scale. This
makes sense as the 500mb trough axis/shortwave energy may help fire
some scattered shra/iso tsra. Have lingered some chance/slight
chance pops into the overnight hours.

Yay for Tuesday! Conditions will be dry, with temperatures still
running above normal for this time of year.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Another round of wet and stormy weather is in the cards Wednesday
into Wednesday night. This due to a strong cold front forecast to
move across the area Wednesday night and associated with a sharp
upper level trough moving across the mid U.S. The airmass becomes
unstable quickly on Wednesday ahead of the front as warm moist
air moves over the area. Low level wind shear increases as well
in the 30-45 kt range. This will lead to an Enhanced risk of
severe storms. Storm potential will end quickly Wednesday night
with the cold front passing. The only concern then will be shower
chances from wrap-around moisture in the upper level trough
Thursday into Friday. Temperatures could get cold enough for a
rain/snow shower mix for the higher elevations of the mountains
late Thursday night/early Friday.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry as high pressure moves across the area.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal until the cold front
moves through Wednesday night then temperatures will cool off to below
normal until about Sunday. Friday and Saturday mornings will be
the coolest with lows in the 30s and 40s.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
A few showers are possible out ahead of the main line of
thunderstorms. The strongest storms should impact ATL around 16Z
and quickly move east. A few showers may linger through the late
afternoon ours. A wind shift to the west is expected behind the
strong storms and winds should be gusty most of the day.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence precip timing. Medium confidence remaining
elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  59  82  57 /  90  40   0  10
Atlanta         75  59  81  60 /  90  40   0  30
Blairsville     67  53  75  51 / 100  40   5  10
Cartersville    72  57  80  57 / 100  40   0  20
Columbus        77  60  83  62 /  90  40   5  30
Gainesville     71  57  79  57 /  90  40   0  10
Macon           81  60  84  59 /  80  50   5  20
Rome            73  56  80  56 / 100  40   0  20
Peachtree City  76  57  82  57 /  90  40   0  30
Vidalia         83  64  85  64 /  80  60  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
445 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-041000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
445 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected over north and central Georgia...starting late morning
into the evening hours. Damaging winds, Large Hail, a Few Tornadoes
and Frequent Lightning will be the main Hazards. Heavy rain can
also be expected with Flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is an Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Damaging winds, Large Hail, a Few Tornadoes and
Frequent Lightning will be the main Hazards. Heavy rain can also
be expected with Flooding possible.

Rather strong and gusty winds can be expected on Thursday.

Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time on Tuesday
and Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for mid to late morning today.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
440 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-031400-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Fannin-Gilmer-Union-Towns-
Chattooga-Gordon-Pickens-Dawson-Lumpkin-White-Floyd-Bartow-
Cherokee-Forsyth-Hall-Banks-Jackson-Madison-Polk-Paulding-Cobb-
North Fulton-Gwinnett-Barrow-Clarke-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Wilkes-
Haralson-Carroll-Douglas-South Fulton-DeKalb-Rockdale-Walton-
Newton-Morgan-Greene-Taliaferro-Heard-Coweta-Fayette-Clayton-
Spalding-Henry-Butts-Jasper-Putnam-Hancock-Warren-Troup-
Meriwether-Pike-Upson-Lamar-Monroe-Jones-Baldwin-Washington-
Glascock-Jefferson-Harris-Talbot-Taylor-Crawford-Bibb-Twiggs-
Wilkinson-Johnson-Emanuel-Muscogee-Chattahoochee-Marion-Schley-
Macon-Peach-Houston-Bleckley-Laurens-Treutlen-Stewart-Webster-
Sumter-Dooly-Crisp-Pulaski-Wilcox-Dodge-Telfair-Wheeler-
Montgomery-Toombs-
440 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...Scattered to Numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are
   expected later today into tonight...

Hazards...

Damaging winds...A line of severe storms could have damaging
winds of 60 to 80 mph. This will down trees and powerlines in the
storms path and precautions should be made now to secure any
light outdoor objects like lawn furniture.

A Few Tornadoes will also be possible.

Large Hail as large as an inch and a half will be possible with
these storms as well.

Please take this time ahead of the storms to review your severe
weather plan and make sure your NOAA weather radio is operational.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
950 AM EDT MON APR 3 2017

GAZ096-107-109-031415-
Bleckley GA-Dodge GA-Pulaski GA-
950 AM EDT MON APR 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BLECKLEY...WESTERN DODGE AND
EASTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM EDT...

At 950 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Ocmulgee Banks, or 10
miles west of Eastman...moving north at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Cochran, Eastman, Hawkinsville, Chester, Union, Dubois, Coley
Station, Gresston, Plainfield, Empire, Yonkers, Mobley Crossing,
Roddy, Baileys Park, Ocmulgee Banks, Finleyson, Royal, Wallace, Paulk
and Hartford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3204 8331 3208 8330 3209 8331 3209 8332
      3210 8332 3210 8336 3213 8336 3213 8341
      3212 8344 3212 8348 3214 8353 3250 8341
      3250 8340 3252 8336 3236 8310 3230 8307
      3201 8323
TIME...MOT...LOC 1350Z 202DEG 37KT 3215 8335

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH