Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Watch
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1100 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
The potential for severe thunderstorms across portions of the CWFA
remains high today.

A warm front across the Florida panhandle will begin to shift
northward this morning across the southern portion of the CWFA.
Meanwhile, an area of surface low pressure will move out of the
Lower Mississippi River Valley into the Carolinas. In the mid
levels, negatively tilted trough with strong energy in its base will
move through the southeast states through this evening.

The ingredients for severe weather are still present today. However,
not entirely too confident on what effect the advancing rain shield
across central AL will have on the development of thunderstorms
today across far north GA. The HRRR looks to have initialized this
area of widespread showers, with a few strong thunderstorms, very
well this morning as opposed to the locally run wrf/arw. Have
noticed over the last few hours, the eastward advancement of this
rain shield has slowed a bit, and the HRRR does keep most of this
elevated convection out of the CWFA through 11Z-12Z. In addition,
over the past few hi-res model runs, the northern edge of the line
seems to have weakened a bit. This seems reasonable, especially if
the elevated precip begins to spread eastward this morning after 12Z
across northern GA (north of the metro). Even if the northern
portion of the line weakens a bit, strong/isolated severe storms
will still be possible (far north).

However, areas south should experience a bit more surface
instability with the potential for more heating...under a bit less
cloud cover. Convection will have access to good CAPE with values
around 2000 J/KG. Upper/mid level jet dynamics will also come into
play, along with steep lapse rates. The HRRR and our locally run hi-
res models have also been very consistent in the last few runs with
developing discrete convection out ahead of the main system during
the late morning/afternoon in vicinity of the warm front. In fact,
models are progging somewhat steeper lapse rates in the warm sector,
so in addition to the wind threat, large hail will also be a factor.

Wrapping this all up...the potential for severe storms across the
CWFA remains high today. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary
severe weather mode. However, large hail cannot be ruled out,
especially in any discrete cells that pop up ahead of the main
system. Isolated tornadoes will also be possible. With high
atmospheric moisture content, convection will be efficient rainfall
producers. Locally heavy rainfall will be likely.

Models do indicate that convection will continue to be possible
after the main system moves through, just on a smaller scale. This
makes sense as the 500mb trough axis/shortwave energy may help fire
some scattered shra/iso tsra. Have lingered some chance/slight
chance pops into the overnight hours.

Yay for Tuesday! Conditions will be dry, with temperatures still
running above normal for this time of year.

NListemaa

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Another round of wet and stormy weather is in the cards Wednesday
into Wednesday night. This due to a strong cold front forecast to
move across the area Wednesday night and associated with a sharp
upper level trough moving across the mid U.S. The airmass becomes
unstable quickly on Wednesday ahead of the front as warm moist
air moves over the area. Low level wind shear increases as well
in the 30-45 kt range. This will lead to an Enhanced risk of
severe storms. Storm potential will end quickly Wednesday night
with the cold front passing. The only concern then will be shower
chances from wrap-around moisture in the upper level trough
Thursday into Friday. Temperatures could get cold enough for a
rain/snow shower mix for the higher elevations of the mountains
late Thursday night/early Friday.

Saturday and Sunday will be dry as high pressure moves across the area.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal until the cold front
moves through Wednesday night then temperatures will cool off to below
normal until about Sunday. Friday and Saturday mornings will be
the coolest with lows in the 30s and 40s.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
A few showers are possible out ahead of the main line of
thunderstorms. The strongest storms should impact ATL around 16Z
and quickly move east. A few showers may linger through the late
afternoon ours. A wind shift to the west is expected behind the
strong storms and winds should be gusty most of the day.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
High confidence precip timing. Medium confidence remaining
elements.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          75  59  82  57 /  90  40   0  10
Atlanta         75  59  81  60 /  90  40   0  30
Blairsville     67  53  75  51 / 100  40   5  10
Cartersville    72  57  80  57 / 100  40   0  20
Columbus        77  60  83  62 /  90  40   5  30
Gainesville     71  57  79  57 /  90  40   0  10
Macon           81  60  84  59 /  80  50   5  20
Rome            73  56  80  56 / 100  40   0  20
Peachtree City  76  57  82  57 /  90  40   0  30
Vidalia         83  64  85  64 /  80  60  10  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for the
following zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...
Carroll...Chattahoochee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...
Crawford...Crisp...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...
Fayette...Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett...Hancock...Harris...
Heard...Henry...Houston...Jackson...Jasper...Jefferson...
Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Madison...Marion...
Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...
North Fulton...Oconee...Oglethorpe...Peach...Pike...Pulaski...
Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...
Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...
Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
445 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-041000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
445 AM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected over north and central Georgia...starting late morning
into the evening hours. Damaging winds, Large Hail, a Few Tornadoes
and Frequent Lightning will be the main Hazards. Heavy rain can
also be expected with Flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

There is an Enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday into
Wednesday night. Damaging winds, Large Hail, a Few Tornadoes and
Frequent Lightning will be the main Hazards. Heavy rain can also
be expected with Flooding possible.

Rather strong and gusty winds can be expected on Thursday.

Otherwise, no hazardous weather is expected at this time on Tuesday
and Friday through Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for mid to late morning today.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1134 AM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1123 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE BEASLEY GAP       34.35N  84.58W
04/03/2017                   CHEROKEE           GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF REINHARDT
            COLLEGE PARKWAY AND SALACOA ROAD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700391

KING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1148 AM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1059 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W CARROLLTON          33.58N  85.09W
04/03/2017                   CARROLL            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE REPORTED DOWN ALONG ALABAMA STREET IN CARROLLTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700392

KING

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EDT MON APR 3 2017

GAZ039-031630-
Wilkes GA-
1148 AM EDT MON APR 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WILKES COUNTY UNTIL 1230 PM
EDT...

At 1148 AM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Ficklin, or near
Washington...moving northeast at 55 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...nickel sized hail and frequent cloud
           to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Washington, Tignall, Rayle, Ficklin, Mallorysville, Delhi, Lundberg,
Norman, Metasville, Floral Hill, Aonia, Newtown, Danburg, Rocky Creek
Fire Dept. and Celeste.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3360 8266 3360 8269 3362 8269 3362 8271
      3361 8271 3361 8274 3371 8294 3397 8278
      3399 8272 3399 8265 3386 8261 3387 8258
      3387 8257 3383 8260 3376 8255
TIME...MOT...LOC 1548Z 208DEG 49KT 3367 8280

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1159 AM EDT MON APR 3 2017

GAZ046-053>057-067>070-078-079-031630-
Harris GA-Fayette GA-Lamar GA-Rockdale GA-Clayton GA-Upson GA-
Coweta GA-Spalding GA-Meriwether GA-Talbot GA-Pike GA-Henry GA-
1159 AM EDT MON APR 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HARRIS...FAYETTE...
WESTERN LAMAR...SOUTHWESTERN ROCKDALE...CLAYTON...UPSON...
SOUTHEASTERN COWETA...SPALDING...EASTERN MERIWETHER...NORTHERN
TALBOT...PIKE AND HENRY COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 PM EDT...

At 1158 AM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Sandy Creek to near Waverly Hall...and moving
east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail...frequent
           cloud to ground lightning and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Griffin, McDonough, Fayetteville, Thomaston, Barnesville, Jonesboro,
Zebulon, Peachtree City, Stockbridge, Riverdale, Hampton, Morrow,
Lovejoy, Locust Grove, Manchester, Senoia, Woodbury, Waverly Hall,
Milner and Brooks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect. Continue to monitor
NOAA Weather Radio...weather.gov or orther media outlets for further
statements or possible warnings on these storms.

LAT...LON 3354 8451 3364 8415 3362 8411 3366 8409
      3367 8406 3275 8422 3269 8475
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 255DEG 30KT 3353 8451 3272 8468

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1208 PM EDT MON APR 3 2017

GAZ008-009-014>016-022-023-033-034-031645-
Hall GA-Dawson GA-North Fulton GA-Union GA-Towns GA-Forsyth GA-
Gwinnett GA-White GA-Lumpkin GA-
1208 PM EDT MON APR 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HALL...SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON...
NORTH FULTON...SOUTHEASTERN UNION...SOUTHEASTERN TOWNS...FORSYTH...
NORTHERN GWINNETT...WHITE AND LUMPKIN COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

At 1208 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Black Gap Shelter to near Hightower to
Dunwoody...and moving northeast at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Gainesville, Cumming, Dahlonega, Cleveland, Dawsonville, Johns Creek,
Duluth, Sugar Hill, Suwanee, Buford, Norcross, Braselton, Flowery
Branch, Oakwood, Lula, Berkeley Lake, Clermont, Helen, Gillsville and
Rest Haven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3488 8366 3482 8365 3480 8368 3474 8362
      3465 8366 3455 8362 3451 8367 3443 8362
      3436 8367 3430 8362 3413 8382 3405 8385
      3393 8426 3431 8412 3472 8407 3495 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 230DEG 51KT 3461 8415 3428 8419 3395 8432

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1213 PM EDT MON APR 3 2017

GAZ034-035-045>047-055-031645-
Walton GA-Rockdale GA-Barrow GA-Clayton GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
1213 PM EDT MON APR 3 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WALTON...ROCKDALE...
SOUTHWESTERN BARROW...NORTHEASTERN CLAYTON...DEKALB AND GWINNETT
COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

At 1212 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms extended from
Berkeley Lake to Pine Lake to Ellenwood...and moving northeast at 50
mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lawrenceville, Conyers, Forest Park, Snellville, Lilburn, Loganville,
Norcross, Doraville, Clarkston, Auburn, Morrow, Stone Mountain,
Dacula, Avondale Estates, Grayson, Lake City, Lithonia, Walnut Grove,
Pine Lake and Carl.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3394 8375 3376 8385 3373 8389 3374 8391
      3372 8392 3364 8418 3365 8422 3363 8424
      3365 8425 3365 8428 3364 8428 3363 8426
      3362 8427 3359 8436 3374 8428 3393 8426
      3407 8380
TIME...MOT...LOC 1612Z 245DEG 51KT 3397 8421 3378 8421 3362 8429

WIND...40MPH