Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
741 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Have made the most significant revisions to pops and weather for
the next 24 to 30 hours as models have generally delayed onset of
the next round of precip. Additionally, the overall model
consensus attempts to suggest a break in the activity mid morning
into the early afternoon, but timing and coverage through the day
continues to be difficult to pin down. This overnight activity
continues to be a concern for severe storm development,
particularly with the risk of damaging winds and possible
tornadoes. Stay alert to weather watches and warnings overnight
and through Sunday.

The early Sunday activity should be most significant from a line
from LaGrange to Macon to Swainsboro, and SPC has a moderate risk
of severe storms through this area. Any area south of the I-20
corridor can expected the highest probability of severe storms.
Again, the main concerns would be winds greater than 70 mph,
strong (potentially long-track) tornadoes, and large hail (greater
than golf ball). Areas north of I-20 could still see severe
storms, and north Georgia still has a slight to enhanced risk of
severe storms.

There remains an elevated flash flood threat through Sunday. With
the latest observed 24-hour rainfall totals in the 2-4 inch rain,
and with an additional 1 to 3 inches possible through Sunday,
localized flash flooding is possible in low lying or flood prone
areas. Additionally, rises along creeks and rivers can be
expected. At this time a Flash Flood Watch has not been issued,
but will continue to monitor the latest models to determine if one
is necessary.

Another round of thunderstorms is expected to linger through
Sunday afternoon and evening, with a transition to more of a heavy
rain and hail threat, with lesser chances of tornadoes and
damaging winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 335 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

..Another round or two of strong to severe storms possible early
Sunday through the afternoon...

Strong storms with some embedded tornadoes continue to march east
across central GA at this hour.  Anticipate much of the thunderstorm
activity to be east of the area by 3/4pm with only residual
showers/embedded thunder through the rest of the afternoon across
eastern GA. We will likely see a lull in activity later this
afternoon through the evening hours as the initial shortwave lifts
to the NE. This is all in association with a potent mid/upper level
system approaching from the west. Anticipate this next mid level
impulse to cross early Sunday morning and another Sunday mid-day.
This will lead to another round of showers/thunderstorms Sunday
early morning through mid-morning, with the secondary shortwave
helping to initiate storms in the afternoon into the early evening
hours. Anticipate these storms will have large hail, heavy rain,
strong winds and isolated tornadoes. Feel the best chance of
seeing severe will be across central/southeast GA as the
instability and shear looks most impressive across that region for
Sunday. Given the ample amount of rain seen today, we will
monitor the hydro side Sunday as more storms move in. More
widespread flooding could be a concern on Sunday, but confidence
on overall convection coverage is limited at this time.

Forecast storm total through the remainder of this event looks to be
another 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts, especially to across
southeast/central Georgia. We are not planning on issuing any
flood/flash flood watches at this time.

Mild temperatures through Sunday with temps cooling a bit Sunday
overnight.

26

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 147 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2017/

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

Models in better agreement at the start of the period with the
closed upper low vicinity of the TN valley. The low moves across
the Appalachians into Monday. Extensive wrap around associated
with this cold core low should give a chance of showers across the
forecast area on Monday...mainly northeast Monday night. Ridging
dominates the southeast on Tuesday but another short wave brings
moisture and a chance of showers back Wednesday into Thursday. The
short wave looks like it will move east of the area by Thursday
night. However moisture on the back side of this wave will push
into TN and move rapidly eastward. Models suggest this moisture
will stay mainly north of the forecast area...but there could be
enough cold air advection to bring a few snow showers to the far
northeast. A slight chance has been included in that area for
Thursday night. Friday looks dry. Temperatures will be on a
cooling trend by late next week.

41

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Conditions have started to degrade this evening, with generally
MVFR across the area, and some patchy areas of IFR. Expect another
round of convection to move into the state from the southwest/west
06-09z, with the strongest storms generally in the 09-15z
timeframe. After a lull period mid morning into the afternoon,
have included a PROB30 for additional convection for generally
19-23z. Winds will generally be SW to SE, gradually all shifting
to the SW after 08-09z. Winds will be 10kt or less, except for
gusty winds in/near convection. Restricted visibilities and low
cigs will persist into Sunday, with little improvement through the
morning. VFR possible after 00z, before degrading again Sunday
night.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          56  70  48  58 /  80  90  80  40
Atlanta         57  68  48  56 / 100  90  70  30
Blairsville     51  63  45  51 /  80  90  80  60
Cartersville    55  67  47  54 / 100  90  70  40
Columbus        60  71  49  57 /  60  80  50  20
Gainesville     56  67  48  56 /  80  90  80  40
Macon           59  73  49  59 / 100  80  60  30
Rome            54  66  47  54 / 100  80  70  40
Peachtree City  55  69  47  56 / 100  80  70  30
Vidalia         62  76  51  62 / 100  90  70  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...31

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
643 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1020 AM     TSTM WND DMG     COLUMBUS                32.46N  84.99W
01/21/2017                   MUSCOGEE           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN LAUREL HILLS TOWARDS CGS AIRPORT

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700154

GEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
648 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TORNADO          4 WSW FRIENDSHIP        33.05N  83.09W
01/21/2017                   BALDWIN            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG DEEPSTEP
            ROAD... CLOSE TO THE HANCOCK COUNTY LINE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700155

GEO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
906 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE OLD TOWN          32.88N  82.30W
01/21/2017                   JEFFERSON          GA   PUBLIC

            CLEAR PATH OF TREES FALLEN NEAR GA HWY 78 AND
            IMMEDIATELY EAST OF GA 17

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1700156

KING

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