Severe Thunderstorm Warning 318, NWS Atlanta, GA

688 
WWUS52 KFFC 302133
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
533 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

GAC271-302200-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0318.000000T0000Z-170830T2200Z/
Telfair GA-
533 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN TELFAIR COUNTY...

At 533 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Red Bluff, or
14 miles northeast of Fitzgerald, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Jacksonville, Horse Creek Wma and China Hill. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If you see wind damage...hail or flooding...wait until the storm has
passed...and then call the National Weather Service toll free
at 1 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 6 6 or tweet us your report at NWSATLANTA.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 8303 3180 8308 3181 8309 3181 8310
      3189 8309 3193 8279 3184 8279 3182 8284
      3178 8286 3178 8289 3179 8290 3178 8292
      3179 8298 3178 8299
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 277DEG 16KT 3181 8305 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
340 PM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Ample moisture return being lifted isentropically against a
lingering CAD wedge has resulted in widespread showers for the
northern majority of the CWA. There is also a cluster of strong to
possibly severe bowing segments of convection in the more unstable
southern tier of central GA perhaps aided by an extension of a
mesolow behind the main precip shield. Overall trend should be a
gradual eroding of the wedge as a warm front lifts northward.
Thunderstorm potential should increase slightly northward to at
least give an isolated elevated threat to the north by overnight,
though expecting just general thunder threat. Expecting QPF through
tonight to be on the order of 0.5-1 inch. See updated hydrology
section below for overall details through Saturday.

The majority of the CWA should be in the warm sector for Thursday so
have chance thunder area-wide with categorical to likely shower
chances remaining in the NW majority where multiple impulses should
traverse in the flow ahead of the main Harvey remnant circulation.
There should be enough enhanced low level helicity and conditional
instability at least in the NW CWA to support a slight chance for
severe development, primarily supporting a few isolated tornadoes.
SPC updated the Day 2 outlook to have a larger Marginal Risk
extending NW of a Columbus to Athens line and a Slight Risk NW of
the Atlanta metro.

Temps, while limited again to below normal for Thursday should be a
bit warmer than what was realized today given the aforementioned
wedge erosion.

Baker

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

No big changes have been made to the long term. GFS/ECMWF both
bring the remains of Harvey into the OH Valley by Saturday. Best
QPF amounts still on track for the northern third through
Saturday. Drier air should be moving into the northern counties
through the weekend...so pops have been reduced for the north
into the first of the week. Previous discussion is included below.

41

&&

/Previous/
LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...
/Issued 403 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017/

The start of the long term looks to have the remains of Harvey
about to exit n MS and cross TN, Thursday night and Friday. This
will favor n and e GA with the highest rain chances. This will
also put the far nw forecast area, roughly Carroll to Fannin
counties and n and w, with a marginal risk for tornadoes Thursday
night.

As Harvey continues to move ne after Friday, rain chances will
diminish into Saturday. Otherwise GFS and European models struggle
will moisture return Sunday and Monday that will mainly affect
central Ga with small rain chances. More significant moisture return
is forecast on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front.

Forecast temperatures are running around normal, to up to 5 degrees
below normal, this long term period.

BDL

&&

HYDROLOGY...

While some portions of west central Georgia have seen 0.75 to 1.25
inches of rainfall so far, a persistent moist/wet environment will
last into the weekend allowing for multiple rounds of precipitation
mainly across the NW majority of the area.  Additional rainfall
totals through Saturday will range from 1 to 1.5 inches for most
areas, with the far north getting up to 2.5 inches. At this time,
given the recent lull in precip activity over the last one to two
weeks, the area should be able to handle this amount of rainfall
over the three day period without issue. That being said, rain may
be heavy at times, and heavy showers or thunderstorms training over
the same area could produce localized (flash) flooding. Stay tuned
to changes in the forecast.

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Increased moisture and precip chances along with MVFR/IFR
cigs/vsbys for much of fcst period. Chance for LIFR cigs in early
morning, though thinking should stay higher in 600-800 ft range
then gradual improvement after about 15z tomorrow (could scatter
to VFR level by afternoon). Precip chance should persist for most
sites with initial TS threat for southern sites this afternoon,
then greater chance farther north by 18z tomorrow. Winds ESE 7-10
kts (slightly lower magnitudes overnight) becoming for SSE by 15z
tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium on overall cig trends and precip timing overnight.
High on all else.

Baker

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          67  82  70  83 /  50  70  70  70
Atlanta         69  81  71  82 /  70  70  70  60
Blairsville     64  74  65  75 /  80  90  80  70
Cartersville    68  81  71  81 /  80  80  90  60
Columbus        73  86  74  87 /  50  70  50  50
Gainesville     67  78  70  80 /  70  80  70  70
Macon           70  87  72  86 /  40  60  50  60
Rome            69  81  70  81 /  80  80  90  60
Peachtree City  69  83  71  83 /  60  70  70  60
Vidalia         72  92  73  89 /  30  50  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Baker

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1056 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311500-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1056 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon mainly across
southern portions of central Georgia. Overnight the isolated
threat could spread farther north, though nothing strong to severe
is expected. The main hazards will be occasional lightning and
locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

There will be a chance of thunderstorms on Thursday. There is a
marginal risk for brief tornados over far northwest Georgia,
along and northwest of a line from Carroll to Fannin counties.
Otherwise, the main hazards will be Occasional lightning and heavy
rainfall.

There will be a chance of thunderstorms across the area on Friday,
across mainly central Georgia Saturday through Monday, and across
the area on Tuesday. The main hazards will be occasional lightning
and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
204 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

GAZ089-090-102-301830-
Chattahoochee GA-Stewart GA-Muscogee GA-
204 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CHATTAHOOCHEE...
STEWART AND SOUTHERN MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 203 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Seale to near Suttons Corner...and moving east at
30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Lumpkin, Richland, Fort Benning/lawson Army Air Fld, Charles, Sand
Hill, Westville, Battle Park, Jamestown/south Fort Benning, Troutman,
Omaha, Sanford, Custer Road Terrace, Louvale and Providence Canyon
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3192 8491 3195 8496 3198 8496 3197 8504
      3199 8507 3209 8504 3213 8506 3218 8501
      3220 8496 3222 8498 3222 8493 3225 8492
      3226 8489 3230 8494 3233 8501 3238 8497
      3239 8499 3243 8488 3203 8465 3192 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 1803Z 258DEG 26KT 3224 8517 3164 8483

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
231 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

GAZ090>092-102>104-301915-
Schley GA-Chattahoochee GA-Stewart GA-Sumter GA-Marion GA-Webster GA-
231 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN SCHLEY...
SOUTHEASTERN CHATTAHOOCHEE...STEWART...SUMTER...SOUTHERN MARION AND
WEBSTER COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 231 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from near Florence Marina State Park to near Brooksville to
near Red Store Crossroads...and moving east at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Americus, Lumpkin, Buena Vista, Preston, Richland, Plains, Leslie, De
Soto, Weston, Desoto, Sumter, Putnam, Brantley, Lamar, Seminole,
Westville, Croxton Crossroads, Brooklyn, Huntington and Renfroe.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3197 8444 3192 8446 3192 8491 3195 8496
      3198 8496 3199 8507 3209 8504 3213 8506
      3238 8455 3201 8405 3191 8398 3192 8434
      3187 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 248DEG 28KT 3210 8500 3183 8463 3141 8434

WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
322 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

GAZ104-301945-
Sumter GA-
322 PM EDT WED AUG 30 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 345
PM EDT...

At 322 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Huntington, or 9 miles
south of Americus...moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Leslie, De Soto, Desoto, Cobb, Lamar, Methvins and Huntington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3192 8423 3192 8424 3218 8404 3217 8403
      3215 8403 3213 8401 3212 8401 3209 8398
      3207 8399 3206 8398 3205 8398 3205 8397
      3202 8395 3199 8395 3193 8392 3191 8392
TIME...MOT...LOC 1922Z 232DEG 30KT 3195 8418

WIND...50MPH