Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
632 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.AVIATION.../00Z Update/
Scattered convection continues across the region moving E/SE around
the western side of the upper level low. This trend will continue
with numerous outflow boundaries creating variable winds and allowing
for new convection to develop. Should see a decrease after sunset in
the coverage and intensity of convection, but a repeat is expected
in NW flow on Monday. With timing and location issues will go with
vicinity for the start and ending time frame of this forecast. Later
forecast can pinpoint the windshifts and onset of convection.
Currently VFR across the area and expect this trend to continue thru
the forecast period. Could see a period of MVFR cigs after 09Z and
thru 15Z, but for now maintained VFR. Winds will be variable, but
mostly northerly around 5 knots tonight and N/NW 7-10 knots after
15Z. Winds in or near any convection will be much stronger.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
The ITCZ-like atmosphere continues across TX/LA today with scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some with intense downpours and gusty
winds, and outflow boundaries and differential heating providing the
lift for new convection. While overall PoPs are moderate for any
given location, driving 100 miles around the area would likely cause
drivers to turn on the wipers at least once. More important is
drivers Turn Around and Don't Drown if approaching any location
where water is rushing across the road. The storms should wane this
evening with the loss of diurnal heating, but like last night, the
Low Level Jet might support isolated storms around throughout the
night.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The longwave trough that has locked-in a seasonally-cool and wet
period the last few days will begin to move east and get absorbed in
a large trough centered over the Great Lakes. This will result in reduced
chances for rain areawide on Monday, and rain chances only for the
coastal plains east of I-35 on Tuesday. Weak subtropical ridging will
bring a return to dry weather and seasonal temperatures from
Wednesday onward, but the longer ranges of the GFS and ECMWF
indicate the ridge will not become established over the Desert
Southwest as it usually does this time of year.

In fact, a high amplitude trough-ridge-trough pattern will progress
across the northern two-thirds of the U.S. during the week of June
11th -- with a roller coaster of conditions at many locations. South
Central Texas is on the southern periphery of this pattern, so the
sensible weather for us should be near normal temperatures with only
isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  88  70  89  69 /  50  60  20  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  87  70  88  68 /  50  60  20  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  88  69  88  68 /  50  60  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            67  85  68  87  67 /  40  50  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  94  71  92  72 /  20  -   10  -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  86  69  88  67 /  40  60  20  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             69  91  69  90  68 /  50  40  10  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  88  69  89  68 /  50  60  20  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  87  70  88  70 /  50  60  30  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  89  71  90  70 /  50  50  20  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           71  90  71  90  70 /  50  50  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...Allen
Public Service/Data Collection...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
223 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-051930-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
223 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue today and tonight.
Locally heavy rain causing minor flooding is possible along with
isolated strong storms producing damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue Monday and Tuesday.
Isolated strong storms with hail and gusty winds as well as
locally heavy rain causing minor flooding are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1046 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1024 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NW DEVINE             29.19N 98.97W
06/04/2017  E60 MPH          MEDINA             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HIGH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS NEAR HWY 173
            AND FM1343 DURING TRAVEL TO DEVINE.

&&

SBS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1048 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

TXZ203-218-219-050430-
Frio TX-Uvalde TX-Zavala TX-
1048 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN UVALDE...EASTERN
ZAVALA AND WESTERN FRIO COUNTIES UNTIL 1130 PM CDT...

At 1047 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Batesville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Batesville, Divot, Bluff and Frio Town.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2920 9968 2926 9944 2921 9941 2909 9941
      2909 9933 2873 9911 2866 9957
TIME...MOT...LOC 0347Z 335DEG 23KT 2909 9954

MSL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1053 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

TXZ184>187-203-050445-
Uvalde TX-Kerr TX-Edwards TX-Real TX-Bandera TX-
1053 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN BANDERA...NORTHERN
KERR...NORTH CENTRAL UVALDE...EASTERN EDWARDS AND REAL COUNTIES UNTIL
1145 PM CDT...

At 1053 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 17
miles east of Rocksprings, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kerrville, Leakey, Vanderpool, Hunt, Ingram, Camp Wood, Tuff,
Barksdale, Rio Frio, Vance, Kerr Wildlife Management Area, Waltonia,
Garner State Park, Reagan Wells, Lost Maples State Park, Us-
83 Near The Kerr-
Kimble County Line, Prade Ranch and Devils Sinkhole State Natural
Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3000 9907 2945 9992 3010 10022 3029 9981
      3029 9969
TIME...MOT...LOC 0353Z 329DEG 36KT 3007 9993

MSL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1055 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

TXZ219-220-050445-
Frio TX-Atascosa TX-
1055 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FRIO AND WESTERN
ATASCOSA COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT...

At 1054 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Big Foot, or 9 miles south of Devine, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jourdanton, Charlotte, Moore, Goldfinch, Big Foot, Bigfoot, Schattel,
Iuka, Kyote, Davis, Dobrowolski, Amphion, Rossville, Hindes and Three
Oaks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2903 9905 2909 9893 2909 9881 2916 9880
      2920 9873 2886 9847 2866 9882
TIME...MOT...LOC 0354Z 318DEG 19KT 2902 9887

ALLEN