Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
632 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017

.AVIATION.../00Z Update/
Scattered convection continues across the region moving E/SE around
the western side of the upper level low. This trend will continue
with numerous outflow boundaries creating variable winds and allowing
for new convection to develop. Should see a decrease after sunset in
the coverage and intensity of convection, but a repeat is expected
in NW flow on Monday. With timing and location issues will go with
vicinity for the start and ending time frame of this forecast. Later
forecast can pinpoint the windshifts and onset of convection.
Currently VFR across the area and expect this trend to continue thru
the forecast period. Could see a period of MVFR cigs after 09Z and
thru 15Z, but for now maintained VFR. Winds will be variable, but
mostly northerly around 5 knots tonight and N/NW 7-10 knots after
15Z. Winds in or near any convection will be much stronger.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
The ITCZ-like atmosphere continues across TX/LA today with scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some with intense downpours and gusty
winds, and outflow boundaries and differential heating providing the
lift for new convection. While overall PoPs are moderate for any
given location, driving 100 miles around the area would likely cause
drivers to turn on the wipers at least once. More important is
drivers Turn Around and Don't Drown if approaching any location
where water is rushing across the road. The storms should wane this
evening with the loss of diurnal heating, but like last night, the
Low Level Jet might support isolated storms around throughout the
night.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The longwave trough that has locked-in a seasonally-cool and wet
period the last few days will begin to move east and get absorbed in
a large trough centered over the Great Lakes. This will result in reduced
chances for rain areawide on Monday, and rain chances only for the
coastal plains east of I-35 on Tuesday. Weak subtropical ridging will
bring a return to dry weather and seasonal temperatures from
Wednesday onward, but the longer ranges of the GFS and ECMWF
indicate the ridge will not become established over the Desert
Southwest as it usually does this time of year.

In fact, a high amplitude trough-ridge-trough pattern will progress
across the northern two-thirds of the U.S. during the week of June
11th -- with a roller coaster of conditions at many locations. South
Central Texas is on the southern periphery of this pattern, so the
sensible weather for us should be near normal temperatures with only
isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  88  70  89  69 /  50  60  20  10  10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  87  70  88  68 /  50  60  20  10  10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  88  69  88  68 /  50  60  20  10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            67  85  68  87  67 /  40  50  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           71  94  71  92  72 /  20  -   10  -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  86  69  88  67 /  40  60  20  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             69  91  69  90  68 /  50  40  10  10  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  88  69  89  68 /  50  60  20  10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  87  70  88  70 /  50  60  30  20  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       71  89  71  90  70 /  50  50  20  10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           71  90  71  90  70 /  50  50  20  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Mesoscale/Aviation...10
Synoptic/Grids...Allen
Public Service/Data Collection...30

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
223 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-051930-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
223 PM CDT Sun Jun 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon And Tonight.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue today and tonight.
Locally heavy rain causing minor flooding is possible along with
isolated strong storms producing damaging wind gusts and large
hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Chances of showers and thunderstorms continue Monday and Tuesday.
Isolated strong storms with hail and gusty winds as well as
locally heavy rain causing minor flooding are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
707 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

TXZ194-050045-
Lee TX-
707 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEE COUNTY UNTIL 745
PM CDT...

At 707 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Giddings, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Giddings, Lincoln and Loebau.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3017 9679 3011 9685 3007 9695 3028 9703
      3036 9684 3023 9674 3020 9674
TIME...MOT...LOC 0007Z 333DEG 14KT 3026 9690

ALLEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
710 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

TXZ186-189-050100-
Kerr TX-Kendall TX-
710 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KERR AND
NORTHWESTERN KENDALL COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 710 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kerrville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kerrville, Comfort, Center Point, Cypress Creek and Kerrville State
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3005 9875 2979 9895 3006 9921 3014 9902
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 327DEG 22KT 3007 9906

MSL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
717 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

TXZ190-191-206-050100-
Comal TX-Blanco TX-Hays TX-
717 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL HAYS...SOUTH CENTRAL
BLANCO AND NORTHEASTERN COMAL COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

At 717 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Twin Sisters, or near Blanco, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wimberley, Blanco, Canyon Lake, Twin Sisters, Fischer and
Startzville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3004 9847 3014 9838 2997 9810 2982 9827
TIME...MOT...LOC 0017Z 306DEG 23KT 3003 9837

ALLEN

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
749 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

TXZ186-187-189-050130-
Kerr TX-Bandera TX-Kendall TX-
749 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN BANDERA...SOUTHEASTERN
KERR AND KENDALL COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 748 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Comfort, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Boerne, Comfort, Walnut Grove, Lakehills, Kendalia, Bandera Falls,
Sisterdale, Kreutzberg, Pipe Creek, Welfare, Nelson City, Waring,
Cascade Caverns and Crown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2994 9843 2972 9875 2972 9878 2967 9883
      2959 9894 2988 9909 3009 9885
TIME...MOT...LOC 0048Z 313DEG 16KT 2995 9893

MSL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
815 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

TXZ187-189-204-205-050200-
Bexar TX-Medina TX-Bandera TX-Kendall TX-
815 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL MEDINA...
SOUTHEASTERN BANDERA...SOUTHWESTERN KENDALL AND NORTHWESTERN BEXAR
COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 815 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Boerne, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Antonio, Boerne, Castroville, San Antonio Int Ap, Leon Valley,
Helotes, Fair Oaks Ranch, Shavano Park, Hollywood Park, Lacoste,
Cross Mountain, Walnut Grove, The Dominion, Kreutzberg, Sea World,
Cliff, Timberwood Park, Leon Springs, Lakehills and Castle Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2928 9885 2976 9894 2991 9875 2980 9858
      2974 9864 2975 9862 2974 9861 2975 9860
      2974 9858 2976 9855 2974 9853 2974 9849
      2964 9834 2962 9834 2961 9833
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 328DEG 24KT 2977 9882

MSL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
824 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

TXZ187-204-050215-
Medina TX-Bandera TX-
824 PM CDT SUN JUN 4 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MEDINA AND CENTRAL
BANDERA COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM CDT...

At 824 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Medina, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Hondo, Bandera, Tarpley, D'Hanis, Mico and Lakehills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2984 9943 2991 9930 2990 9927 2973 9905
      2949 9889 2925 9929
TIME...MOT...LOC 0124Z 328DEG 24KT 2976 9928

MSL