Red Flag Warning 10, NWS El Paso, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
201 PM MDT Mon Apr 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching upper level system will produce strong winds across
the region overnight and through the day Tuesday. Some patches of
blowing dust will be possible Tuesday with temps dropping back to
slightly below normal through midweek. Dry and warmer conditions
will follow for the rest of the week. After Tuesday, winds should
not be a big issue until the upcoming weekend when another
approaching storm will bring an increase in overall wind speeds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A developing long wave trough currently dropping into northwestern
Arizona will be responsible for a somewhat extended period of
stronger winds across the area as it traverses New Mexico
overnight and into west Texas Tuesday. Currently lee cyclogenesis
is occurring over northeast New Mexico which has helped to tighten
the surface gradient. This combined with deep mixing to around 600
mb is resulting in a rather breezy afternoon across the region
today.

Wind speeds will stay up some overnight, especially across
mountain tops and along east slope locations as 700 mb winds near
50 knots will cross the region as the base of the trough moves
through. Higher elevations of the Sacramentos will likely see wind
warning criteria before daybreak with advisory level winds
developing east of the Franklin and Organ mountains by midnight.

Boundary layer winds look to stay elevated in the wake of the
trough Tuesday with speeds across all but the western Gila
approaching advisory criteria. In general we should see less dust
with this northwest trajectory, but recent events have revealed
plenty of dust releases from the playas surrounding Lordsburg.
Therefore some patchy blowing dust has been included for areas
downwind of these locations as the day heats up Tuesday.

Everything should begin to settle down shortly after sunset
Tuesday with slightly cooler than normal temps settling in for
midweek. Ridging will follow for the rest of the week resulting in
a quick warm up and mostly lighter winds across the region. Over
the weekend temps will stay up, but the approach of another upper
trough will result in an increase in afternoon winds by Saturday
and possibly another rather windy day come Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 04/00Z-05/00Z...
P6SM SKC-SCT250 through period. West winds will remain 15-25G35KTS
through 12Z with eastern slopes possibly a little higher.  Upper
trough will move through region around 12Z with W to NW winds of 20-
30G45KTS expected through end of period. Some local areas may
experience 1-3SM BLDU after 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper trough will move through the region around sunrise.  Expect
winds to remain at least breezy through the night with a period of
very windy conditions possible during the day Tuesday, especially
over Sacs. Very dry low level air with dew points into the single
digits will lower relative humidities under 10 percent which will
create critical fire weather conditions and a Red Flag Warning has
been issued. A ridge will build in behind the overnight system with
temperatures warming into the 80s by Thursday for the lowlands.  Dry
air will remain in place so single digit relative humidities will
likely continue, but the winds will be much less of a concern
through Friday before starting to increase for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 57  74  46  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           51  74  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              47  72  40  67 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              49  71  37  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              32  46  28  47 /   0  10   0   0
Truth or Consequences   48  68  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             42  63  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  45  71  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               43  69  37  71 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      57  73  46  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               44  77  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            52  79  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              51  68  41  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  52  77  43  71 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            51  73  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          52  72  42  68 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           43  71  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   45  73  41  68 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                50  74  44  70 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               51  73  41  69 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 38  59  30  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               36  58  31  59 /   0  10   0   0
Timberon                36  57  29  55 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 35  61  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               43  69  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               45  69  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            30  65  24  69 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  40  65  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   38  71  32  75 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              40  67  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 44  66  35  65 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  45  72  41  72 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 44  73  39  71 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          45  75  41  70 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              43  69  41  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ111>113.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for
     NMZ413.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ402>412-417.

     High Wind Warning from 3 AM to 7 PM MDT Tuesday for NMZ414>416.

TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Tuesday for TXZ055-056.

     Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for
     TXZ419.

     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for TXZ420>424.

&&

27-Laney/26-Grzywacz

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
612 AM MDT Mon Apr 3 2017

NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-041215-
Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range-
Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley-
Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel-
Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-
Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes-
Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-
Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin-
West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-
Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-
East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa-
Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County-
Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin-
Southern Hudspeth Highlands-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties-
Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County-
612 AM MDT Mon Apr 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central
New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time. We will see breezy
to windy conditions this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

We will see stronger winds on Tuesday which could lead to
hazardous driving conditions and lower visibilities because of
areas of blowing dust. We will see calmer conditions for the rest
of the week and then on Sunday we could see another round of
strong winds and blowing dust.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.