Alert archive / Missouri / Special Weather Statements in 2017

Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

July 12, 2017Grundy County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this special weather statement at Jul 12, 2017, 11:10 PM CDT for Grundy County, Missouri. It was in force for 50 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2017, 11:10 PM CDT (04:10 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2017, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 50 min
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO

County Grundy County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 154 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:12 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 12, 6:23 PM CDT, 4 hours 47 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 6:23 PM CDT, 4 hours 47 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
623 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 252 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

Another round of hot and very humid conditions this afternoon with
heat index values widespread in the 103 to 107 range, and even
approaching 110 in downtown KC. The one exception is far northern
Missouri where remnant clouds from earlier rain showers has kept
temperatures in the 80s. While this makes it unlikely these areas
will reach heat advisory criteria, humidity remains fairly
oppressive in that area and just a quick clearing could get heat
index values near 100, so will go ahead and let the advisory ride
for now.

Convection is developing just north of Omaha this afternoon along
a cold front, and this activity will spread and expand into much
of southern Iowa and parts of northern Missouri overnight as the
front progresses southward and interacts with an intensifying low
level jet. This interaction could bring areas of heavy rain,
although for now the higher chances look to be just north of the
Missouri/Iowa border. Will keep an eye on far northern Missouri
where flooding was a big issue a couple of weeks ago, but they've
had plenty of time to dry out since then so it will still take 2
or 3 inches of rainfall before flash flooding starts to become a
concern.

The front will make continued southward progress on Thursday and
should reach the I-70 corridor by early evening. The big question
is if any clouds and showers from overnight activity linger into
the late morning and early afternoon and how far south they
spread. If skies remain mostly sunny, then compressional heating
and moisture pooling ahead of the front could easily boost heat
index values close to 105 especially for counties either side of
the Missouri River. While this would be particularly problematic
being the 4th consecutive day of excessive heat, there's a decent
chance that clouds could linger for much of the day across these
areas and keep temperatures in the upper 80s/lower 90s as opposed
to middle 90s. Therefore will not issue another heat advisory for
now, but later shifts will have to monitor cloud/precip trends
overnight.

Another round of showers and storms is likely to quickly develop
along the front as it approaches the I-70 corridor during the late
afternoon and evening hours Thursday. Strong instability could be
supportive of very heavy rain, copious lightning, and perhaps some
hail and gusty winds although weak shear should keep these storms
fairly unorganized. While locally heavy rain will be a concern,
the lack of a pronounced LLJ and steady southward progression of
the frontal boundary should cut back on the potential for training
storms and widespread heavy rainfall.

Some showers and storms could linger into Friday before high
pressure builds in from the north and clears things out. This will
provide a couple of cooler days Fri and Sat with highs in the 80s
and dewpoints in the 60s before a return to ridging brings
temperatures back into the 90s by next week. Wouldn't be surprised
to see some upper 90s by Tuesday or Wednesday especially with
dewpoints progged to be a bit lower than they are this week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

Storms developed along a boundary from northeastern KS through
northwestern MO. These may affect the KSTJ terminal before they
dissipate later this evening. Additional storms are possible
through the overnight across far northern MO. A similar scenario
may unfold late tomorrow afternoon further south along the I-70
corridor. An extremely unstable air mass will be in place with a
boundary draped across the area. Outside of restrictions from
thunderstorms, VFR conditions are expected through the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MOZ002>008-011>017-
     020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 12, 5:07 AM CDT, 18 hours 3 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
507 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
507 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Hazardous heat is expected again today, with heat index values
ranging from the lower to mid 100s. Storms in northern Missouri later
today through tonight could become strong to possibly severe.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Could see additional thunderstorms on Thursday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 12, 8:10 PM CDT, 3 hours before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
810 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

MOZ016-017-024-130200-
Adair MO-Linn MO-Sullivan MO-
810 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ADAIR...NORTHERN
LINN AND SOUTHERN SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 810 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Galt, or 10 miles southwest of Milan, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Milan, Green City, Greencastle, Browning, Purdin, Humphreys, Osgood,
Reger, Green Castle, New Boston and Winigan.

LAT...LON 4004 9281 4004 9285 3988 9285 3992 9336
      4010 9337 4021 9335 4029 9276
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 279DEG 22KT 4011 9328

Welsh

Local storm report, Jul 12, 8:25 PM CDT, 2 hours 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
825 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GALLATIN                39.91N 93.96W
07/12/2017                   DAVIESS            MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES KNOCKED DOWN IN TOWN.

&&

CUTTER

Local storm report, Jul 12, 8:31 PM CDT, 2 hours 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
831 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KIRKSVILLE              40.19N 92.58W
07/12/2017                   ADAIR              MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT AND PHOTO OF TREE BROKEN. RECEIVED ON
            FB.

&&

CUTTER

Special weather statement, Jul 12, 9:03 PM CDT, 2 hours 7 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
903 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

MOZ016-017-130230-
Adair MO-Sullivan MO-
903 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADAIR AND EAST CENTRAL SULLIVAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 903 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greencastle, or 13 miles west of Kirksville, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kirksville, Novinger, Greencastle and Green Castle.

LAT...LON 4015 9245 4008 9283 4026 9292 4035 9277
      4034 9257
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 244DEG 27KT 4020 9283

Welsh

Local storm report, Jul 12, 9:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
939 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE CHILLICOTHE       39.80N 93.54W
07/12/2017                   LIVINGSTON         MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON TO A BOX TRAILER.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

Special weather statement, Jul 12, 11:10 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1110 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

MOZ005-014-015-130500-
Grundy MO-Daviess MO-Harrison MO-
1110 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS...
NORTHWESTERN GRUNDY AND SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT...

At 1110 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gilman City, or near Bethany, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gilman City and Brimson.

LAT...LON 4014 9402 4027 9396 4025 9362 4001 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 286DEG 28KT 4020 9393

Welsh

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 8:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Daviess, Grundy, Livingston	28 min
Jul 12, 8:09 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Adair	51 min
Jul 12, 8:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Sullivan	50 min
Jul 12, 8:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Adair, Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Macon, Sullivan	35 min
Jul 12, 8:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Caldwell, Grundy, Livingston	31 min
Jul 12, 8:45 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Sullivan	3 hr
Jul 12, 8:54 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Adair	3 hr
Jul 12, 9:03 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Adair	27 min
Jul 12, 11:53 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Linn	37 min
Jul 12, 11:57 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Adair, Grundy, Linn, Livingston, Putnam, Sullivan	6 hr
Jul 13, 12:11 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Grundy	34 min
Jul 13, 12:30 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Adair, Daviess, Grundy, Harrison, Linn, Sullivan	6 hr
Jul 13, 1:05 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry, Harrison	5 hr
Jul 13, 2:26 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	EAX	Caldwell, Chariton, Daviess, Linn, Livingston, Macon and 1 more	4 hr
Jul 13, 5:50 AM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Adair, Caldwell, Chariton, Daviess, DeKalb, Gentry and 10 more	12 hr
Jul 13, 7:10 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, Gentry	41 hr
Jul 13, 7:10 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Linn, Livingston	67 hr
Jul 13, 7:10 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton, Linn, Livingston	4 days
Jul 13, 8:22 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, Livingston	60 hr
Jul 13, 8:22 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Carroll, Chariton	4 days
Jul 13, 11:00 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	EAX	Atchison, Holt	28 hr
Jul 13, 5:45 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	EAX	Daviess, Gentry, Grundy, Harrison, Linn, Livingston and 1 more	24 hr
Jul 13, 6:06 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Jackson	24 min
Jul 13, 6:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Johnson	35 min
Jul 13, 6:40 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	EAX	Cass	35 min
Jul 13, 6:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Linn, Miami	29 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Missouri, 2017 Every special weather statement in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.