Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1140 PM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 252 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

Another round of hot and very humid conditions this afternoon with
heat index values widespread in the 103 to 107 range, and even
approaching 110 in downtown KC. The one exception is far northern
Missouri where remnant clouds from earlier rain showers has kept
temperatures in the 80s. While this makes it unlikely these areas
will reach heat advisory criteria, humidity remains fairly
oppressive in that area and just a quick clearing could get heat
index values near 100, so will go ahead and let the advisory ride
for now.

Convection is developing just north of Omaha this afternoon along
a cold front, and this activity will spread and expand into much
of southern Iowa and parts of northern Missouri overnight as the
front progresses southward and interacts with an intensifying low
level jet. This interaction could bring areas of heavy rain,
although for now the higher chances look to be just north of the
Missouri/Iowa border. Will keep an eye on far northern Missouri
where flooding was a big issue a couple of weeks ago, but they've
had plenty of time to dry out since then so it will still take 2
or 3 inches of rainfall before flash flooding starts to become a
concern.

The front will make continued southward progress on Thursday and
should reach the I-70 corridor by early evening. The big question
is if any clouds and showers from overnight activity linger into
the late morning and early afternoon and how far south they
spread. If skies remain mostly sunny, then compressional heating
and moisture pooling ahead of the front could easily boost heat
index values close to 105 especially for counties either side of
the Missouri River. While this would be particularly problematic
being the 4th consecutive day of excessive heat, there's a decent
chance that clouds could linger for much of the day across these
areas and keep temperatures in the upper 80s/lower 90s as opposed
to middle 90s. Therefore will not issue another heat advisory for
now, but later shifts will have to monitor cloud/precip trends
overnight.

Another round of showers and storms is likely to quickly develop
along the front as it approaches the I-70 corridor during the late
afternoon and evening hours Thursday. Strong instability could be
supportive of very heavy rain, copious lightning, and perhaps some
hail and gusty winds although weak shear should keep these storms
fairly unorganized. While locally heavy rain will be a concern,
the lack of a pronounced LLJ and steady southward progression of
the frontal boundary should cut back on the potential for training
storms and widespread heavy rainfall.

Some showers and storms could linger into Friday before high
pressure builds in from the north and clears things out. This will
provide a couple of cooler days Fri and Sat with highs in the 80s
and dewpoints in the 60s before a return to ridging brings
temperatures back into the 90s by next week. Wouldn't be surprised
to see some upper 90s by Tuesday or Wednesday especially with
dewpoints progged to be a bit lower than they are this week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

Storms this evening should remain across northern MO overnight
into tomorrow morning. Another round of storms may develop along
the I-70 corridor tomorrow afternoon/evening. Have maintain the
VCTS group to account for this. Outside of visibility and/or
ceiling restrictions from thunderstorms, VFR conditions are
expected.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Hawblitzel
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
507 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-131015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
507 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Hazardous heat is expected again today, with heat index values
ranging from the lower to mid 100s. Storms in northern Missouri later
today through tonight could become strong to possibly severe.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Could see additional thunderstorms on Thursday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
831 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     TSTM WND DMG     KIRKSVILLE              40.19N 92.58W
07/12/2017                   ADAIR              MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT AND PHOTO OF TREE BROKEN. RECEIVED ON
            FB.

&&

CUTTER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
903 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

MOZ016-017-130230-
Adair MO-Sullivan MO-
903 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADAIR AND EAST CENTRAL SULLIVAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 903 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Greencastle, or 13 miles west of Kirksville, moving northeast at 30
mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kirksville, Novinger, Greencastle and Green Castle.

LAT...LON 4015 9245 4008 9283 4026 9292 4035 9277
      4034 9257
TIME...MOT...LOC 0203Z 244DEG 27KT 4020 9283

Welsh

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
939 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ENE CHILLICOTHE       39.80N 93.54W
07/12/2017                   LIVINGSTON         MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE WAS BLOWN DOWN ON TO A BOX TRAILER.
            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1110 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

MOZ005-014-015-130500-
Grundy MO-Daviess MO-Harrison MO-
1110 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS...
NORTHWESTERN GRUNDY AND SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT...

At 1110 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gilman City, or near Bethany, moving east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gilman City and Brimson.

LAT...LON 4014 9402 4027 9396 4025 9362 4001 9376
TIME...MOT...LOC 0410Z 286DEG 28KT 4020 9393

Welsh

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

MOZ015-023>025-032-130530-
Grundy MO-Macon MO-Chariton MO-Livingston MO-Linn MO-
1153 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CHARITON...LINN...
SOUTHEASTERN GRUNDY...WEST CENTRAL MACON AND EASTERN LIVINGSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1153 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Linneus, or 14 miles northwest of Brookfield, moving south at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Brookfield, Marceline, Bucklin, Meadville, Laclede, Linneus,
Wheeling, Chula, New Cambria, Purdin, Avalon and Saint Catherine.

LAT...LON 3973 9272 3964 9348 4000 9350 4004 9292
TIME...MOT...LOC 0453Z 338DEG 35KT 3995 9326

Welsh

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1211 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2017

MOZ005-014-015-023-130545-
Grundy MO-Daviess MO-Livingston MO-Harrison MO-
1211 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DAVIESS...GRUNDY...
SOUTHEASTERN HARRISON AND NORTHWESTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245
AM CDT...

At 1210 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gilman City, or near Bethany, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trenton, Jamesport, Gilman City, Spickard, Coffey, Tindall and
Brimson.

LAT...LON 4030 9376 4027 9376 4027 9363 4021 9338
      3986 9369 4011 9403 4031 9382
TIME...MOT...LOC 0510Z 306DEG 39KT 4021 9393

Welsh