Severe Thunderstorm Warning 60, NWS Kansas City, MO

234 
WWUS53 KEAX 170315
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1015 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

MOC087-170324-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-170517T0345Z/
Holt MO-
1015 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN HOLT COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4058 9577 4058 9521 4033 9518 4026 9555
      4030 9556 4032 9561 4031 9566 4034 9562
      4041 9566 4046 9564 4046 9568 4048 9570
      4054 9565 4056 9568 4052 9571 4052 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 248DEG 53KT 4060 9555 4039 9550 4022 9567 

$$

MOC005-170345-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-170517T0345Z/
Atchison MO-
1015 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR ATCHISON COUNTY...

At 1014 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Hamburg to Rockport to Shubert, moving east at 60
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Tarkio, Rock Port, Fairfax, Rockport, Westboro, Watson, Blanchard,
Indian Cave State Park and Phelps City.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 101 and 123.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9577 4058 9521 4033 9518 4026 9555
      4030 9556 4032 9561 4031 9566 4034 9562
      4041 9566 4046 9564 4046 9568 4048 9570
      4054 9565 4056 9568 4052 9571 4052 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 248DEG 53KT 4060 9555 4039 9550 4022 9567 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Blair

296 
WWUS53 KEAX 170329
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1029 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

MOC005-170345-
/O.CON.KEAX.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-170517T0345Z/
Atchison MO-
1029 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR EASTERN ATCHISON COUNTY...

At 1028 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Coin to near Tarkio to near Fairfax, moving east
at 60 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Tarkio, Westboro and Blanchard. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4058 9551 4058 9521 4036 9518 4032 9537
TIME...MOT...LOC 0328Z 248DEG 53KT 4067 9532 4046 9527 4029 9544 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Blair

587 
WWUS53 KEAX 170333
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1033 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

MOC005-170343-
/O.CAN.KEAX.SV.W.0060.000000T0000Z-170517T0345Z/
Atchison MO-
1033 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN ATCHISON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4058 9551 4058 9521 4036 9518 4032 9537
TIME...MOT...LOC 0331Z 248DEG 53KT 4069 9525 4048 9520 4031 9537 

$$

Blair

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
650 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 338 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

Very active weather pattern shaping up from the Lower Missouri
Valley in the coming days as upstream satellite trends show two
potent upper-level disturbances across the Western U.S. this
afternoon. The first of these features currently spinning across
the Desert Southwest will continue tracking east overnight before
ejecting into the Central Plains Wednesday morning. Out ahead of
this however, increased synoptic scale lift resulting from several
lead shortwave impulses along with sufficient boundary layer
moisture and steep lapse rates will support robust convective
development upstream along the dryline in western Kansas and
Oklahoma this afternoon. With time, this activity is expected to
organize into a MCS, before tracking northeast into our area,
primarily after the 03z time frame. Latest high-res model guidance
continues to show a bowing appearance in the simulated
reflectivity fields, which combined with the forward propagation,
suggest strong winds in excess of 50 kts will be the primary
threats across far northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. This
initial round should exit into southern Iowa shortly after 06z,
with NAM and NAMNest solutions strongly suggesting a secondary
round moving east from central Kansas during the predawn hours.
Latest high res guidance suggests this activity will be weakening
as it approaches, however cannot rule out some isolated severe
potential further south than the initial round during the predawn
hours. Again the bowing appearance suggests strong winds as being
the primary concern if this predawn activity achieves severe
limits.

Moving forward to the daylight hours on Wednesday, latest
deterministic guidance continues to highlight a strong synoptic
signal for severe storm development along the eastward moving
dryline/Pacific cold front by Wednesday afternoon. Fcst soundings
from the Metro and points east are nothing short of impressive
from a severe wx perspective, with large looping hodographs seen
on both BUFKIT and AWIPS forecast profiles. A few details:

1) Aforementioned upper trough will take on a strong negative-
tilt by late morning/early afternoon directly off to our west,
suggesting max DPVA and synoptic-scale lift will be centered
directly over our region by afternoon.

2) Latest models suggest plenty of instability will be present,
with both NAM and GFS suggest MLCAPE levels on the order of
1000-1500 J/kg.

3) Very strong wind fields will exist aloft, as a midlevel speed
max of close to 100 kts rotates into the region along the
underbelly of the previously mentioned, negatively-tilted trough.

All told, the synoptic scale is more than supportive for supercell
(possibly low-topped w/ELs around 30 kft) Wednesday afternoon
with shear profiles off the charts. Quick look at CIPS historical
analogs reveals several high-end tornado days for the top returned
cases, which adds concern to tomorrow's convective potential. At
this point, the main caveat remains whether overnight convection
contaminates the environment for tomorrow, however little airmass
modification is expected after both rounds of convection later
tonight and early Wednesday morning. Regardless, its rare to see
such a strong signal synoptically speaking, with further support
provided from past historical guidance.

Tomorrow's activity should translate east by early evening with
mainly dry conditions expected on the backside of the initial wave
Wednesday night into Thursday. Precip chances start to increase
Thursday night and Friday as the wave currently seen over the
Pacific Northwest this afternoon gradually starts to work east
from the Central Rockies by week's end. Again, severe chances look
to return with this activity, but those details will be looked at
more closely as the event timing nears. Rain chances continue
right into the weekend as the wave slowly meanders its way across
the area with dry weather returning Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

Expecting winds to persist through the night in the 20 to 30 kt
range with isolated stronger gusts. Winds will pick up through the
day and remain rather gusty through the rest of the forecast
period. A couple rounds of thunderstorms will be possible, but the
better chances will likely remain north and east of the terminals,
with KSTJ having the best chance for seeing a few thunderstorms.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...32
Aviation...Leighton

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
307 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-172015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
307 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

 Storms are possible late this evening through the overnight hours.
 A few could become strong to severe, especially across far western
 and northwestern portions of the outlook area. The main threat with
 any storms tonight is strong straight line winds.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Another round of storms is possible Wednesday afternoon, a few of
 which could produce strong winds or small hail. Thunderstorm
 chances will continue through the rest of the week.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
938 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

MOZ001-170300-
Atchison MO-
938 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ATCHISON COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

At 937 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Talmage, or 33 miles west of Tarkio, moving northeast at 55 mph.
Nebraska City reported a wind gust of 52 mph at 935 PM.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Watson.

This includes Interstate 29 between mile markers 117 and 123.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4058 9526 4057 9526 4046 9568 4047 9570
      4049 9568 4051 9569 4052 9566 4055 9566
      4056 9568 4052 9571 4052 9575 4053 9577
      4058 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0237Z 245DEG 48KT 4048 9602

Blair