Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
652 PM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 258 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

A low-amplitude embedded shortwave within northwest flow aloft is
approaching central Nebraska as of the early afternoon Friday. This
feature will continue to move atop a stationary frontal boundary
draped over central Nebraska and should provide ample lift to
initiate convection along the boundary heading into the mid-
afternoon. An enhanced CU field is currently developing across
southwestern Nebraska and should continue to expand northeast with
diurnal heating. While the boundary itself will more or less
maintain its current position, steering flow will propagate storms
to the southeast this evening, which will begin to enter northwest
Missouri around sunset. These storms will be maintained by
persistent moisture, sufficient mid-level flow across northern
Missouri, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and a very unstable
environment as MLCAPE values exceed 4000 J/Kg. Modest shear may
support rotating updrafts, capable of producing large hail north of
Highway 36. Additionally, damaging winds are possible considering
potentially tall updrafts and heightened DCAPE values across the
area. Finally, an isolated tornado risk is also possible across
northwest Missouri early on in the evening hours, when storms are
at their peak. These storms are expected to weaken as the cold
pool runs ahead of the line of storms, though sufficient moisture
will maintain storm chances throughout much of the CWA as the line
progress into southern Missouri by Saturday morning. Also a
concern is with the potential for localized flash flooding across
northwest Missouri to central Missouri, within any training
storms over marginally concerning antecedent conditions from
Thursday night precip.

By Saturday, storms should have cleared to the south of the area and
subsidence in the wake of early morning storms will clear lingering
cloud cover, helping to destabilize the environment through the
afternoon. Multiple concerns will surface for Saturday, the first
being with heat indices exceeding 105 degrees for the southern CWA
as a thermal ridge builds into the area. Have expanded the Heat
Advisory slightly, and may need to continue to extend slightly
further north depending on developing trends. Caution will need to
be taken during the afternoon hours considering weekend activities
during a prolonged period of temperatures in the low to mid 90s. The
second concern is with the potential for additional severe weather
across much of the area Saturday evening into the overnight hours.
The upstream frontal boundary will finally gain enough momentum to
push through the CWA courtesy of a deepening upper-level trough
expected to push through the Northern and Central Plains by Saturday
evening. Given the close proximity of the enhanced upper-level flow,
a highly unstable environment, and sufficient convergence along the
frontal boundary, widespread thunderstorms are expected to push
through northern Missouri by the mid afternoon and will extend well
into the evening and overnight hours as the front pushes through the
area. Large hail and damaging winds will remain the primary hazards
along the frontal boundary.

Will then see a reprieve from the active weather and heat beginning
Sunday in the wake of the cold front as temperatures only rise into
the lower 80s by Sunday afternoon. This trend will continue through
Monday before storm chances and increasing temperatures return to
the area by the mid-week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 650 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

VFR conditions will start the night, though a forward propagating
line of thunderstorms is expected to sweep southeast across the
state line terminals late tonight. Current timing has the line of
storms arriving as early as 04Z, and likely lingering through 08Z
or 09Z. CIGs will likely be in the MVFR category, though
confidence on specific values is a bit low. Anticipate needed
updates to the TAFs this evening as the storms approach.
Otherwise, there might be some low level wind shear out there due
to a strong low level jet along and behind the line of expected
storms. And lastly, have basic timing for a frontal boundary
settling into the KC region tomorrow afternoon, which might bring
convection; though I have left any mention for Saturday afternoon
out of the TAF at this time.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ025-057-060-
     103>105.

MO...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Saturday for MOZ021-022-
     028>031-037>039-043>046-053-054.

&&

Discussion...Welsh
Aviation...Cutter

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
357 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-170900-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
357 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Strong to severe storms are expected late this afternoon and evening
 across much of northeastern Kansas and northwest Missouri. Large
 hail and damaging winds will be the primary threats with this
 activity. The strongest activity is expected along and north of the
 highway 36 corridor.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 Strong to severe storms will also be possible Saturday afternoon and
 evening, with large hail and damaging winds again remaining the
 primary concerns.

 Dangerously hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices as
 high as 104 to 109 degrees Saturday afternoon. Caution should be
 taken by those with planned outdoor activities.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1046 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROSENDALE               40.04N 94.82W
06/16/2017  E65 MPH          ANDREW             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            60 TO 70 MPH WINDS REPORTED IN ROSENDALE PER
            EMD.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1051 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1051 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SE COUNTRY CLUB VILLA 39.81N 94.80W
06/16/2017                   BUCHANAN           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE ACROSS COOK RD EAST OF I-29.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1055 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     TSTM WND GST     SAINT JOSEPH AIRPORT    39.77N 94.91W
06/16/2017  M76 MPH          BUCHANAN           MO   ASOS

            66 KNOTS REPORTED AT STJ.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1059 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1053 PM     TSTM WND GST     GILMAN CITY             40.14N 93.87W
06/16/2017  E70 MPH          HARRISON           MO   PUBLIC

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1100 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1056 PM     TSTM WND GST     SPICKARD                40.24N 93.59W
06/16/2017  E58 MPH          GRUNDY             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            ESTIMATED 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS PER
            FIREFIGHTER.

&&

LG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1102 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SAINT JOSEPH            39.77N 94.85W
06/16/2017                   BUCHANAN           MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE
            CITY.

&&

LG