River Flood Warning 72, NWS Kansas City, MO

288 
WGUS83 KEAX 191945
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
245 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017



...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...
Missouri...

  Stranger Creek at Easton affecting Atchison and Leavenworth 
  Counties.

  Stranger Creek near Tonganoxie affecting Leavenworth County.

  Wakenda Creek at Carrollton affecting Carroll County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Missouri...

  Blackwater River at Valley City affecting Johnson and Pettis 
  Counties.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

MOC101-159-201945-
/O.CON.KEAX.FL.W.0074.170520T1256Z-170522T1443Z/
/VLYM7.2.ER.170520T1256Z.170521T0000Z.170521T1443Z.NO/
245 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Blackwater River at Valley City.
* from Saturday morning to Monday morning.
* At  2:00 PM Friday the stage was 9.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 27.5 feet by Saturday evening. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by late Sunday morning.
* At 25.0 feet...County Highway E near Valley City and Highway 23 
  near the Perry State Wildlife Area are under water.
* At 22.0 feet...Woodlands and farm fields along the river begin to 
  flood.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Blackwater River
  Valley City     22    9.8   Fri 02 PM   27.5 Saturday evening
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3894 9342 3882 9361 3882 9368 3891 9361 3899 9348

  

$$

KSC005-103-201944-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-170522T0354Z/
/ESTK1.2.ER.170519T1623Z.170520T1200Z.170521T0354Z.NO/
245 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Stranger Creek at Easton.
* until Sunday evening.
* At  1:30 PM Friday the stage was 17.6 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.5 feet by 
  Saturday morning. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday 
  before midnight.
* At 19.5 feet...Highway 192 just east of Easton is closed due to 
  swift current of water over the road.
* At 18.0 feet...1st street in Easton and 231st street north and 
  south of Easton begin to flood.
* At 17.0 feet...Water enters low-lying fields south of Easton.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Stranger Creek
  Easton          17   17.6   Fri 01 PM   19.5 Saturday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3947 9519 3948 9511 3920 9500 3918 9511

  

$$

KSC103-201944-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0072.170520T0553Z-170522T0215Z/
/TNGK1.1.ER.170520T0553Z.170520T1200Z.170521T0215Z.UU/
245 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Stranger Creek near Tonganoxie.
* from late tonight to Sunday evening.
* At  1:30 PM Friday the stage was 12.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Saturday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 24.6 feet by Saturday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Saturday before midnight.
* At 23.0 feet...Low-lying farmland along the creek floods.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Stranger Creek
  Tonganoxie      23   12.1   Fri 01 PM   24.6 Saturday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3918 9511 3920 9500 3901 9496 3900 9508

  

$$

MOC033-201944-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0084.170520T1718Z-170522T2248Z/
/CAXM7.2.ER.170520T1718Z.170521T0600Z.170521T2248Z.UU/
245 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Wakenda Creek at Carrollton.
* from Saturday afternoon to Monday afternoon.
* At  2:00 PM Friday the stage was 5.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Saturday afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 19.6 feet by early Sunday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Sunday afternoon.
* At 19.1 feet...Water reaches the bottom of the South Main Street 
  bridge over Wakenda Creek.
* At 16.0 feet...Flooding of low-lying undeveloped areas along the 
  creek begins.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Wakenda Creek
  Carrollton      16    5.2   Fri 02 PM   19.6 early Sunday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3939 9356 3937 9328 3930 9328 3932 9359

  

$$

400 
WGUS83 KEAX 200207
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
907 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...

  Stranger Creek at Easton affecting Atchison and Leavenworth 
  Counties.

  Stranger Creek near Tonganoxie affecting Leavenworth County.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

KSC005-103-210207-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-170522T0630Z/
/ESTK1.2.ER.170519T1623Z.170520T1800Z.170521T0630Z.NO/
907 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Stranger Creek at Easton.
* until late Sunday night.
* At  8:30 PM Friday the stage was 18.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.5 feet by 
  early Saturday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  early Sunday morning.
* At 19.5 feet...Highway 192 just east of Easton is closed due to 
  swift current of water over the road.
* At 18.0 feet...1st street in Easton and 231st street north and 
  south of Easton begin to flood.
* At 17.0 feet...Water enters low-lying fields south of Easton.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Stranger Creek
  Easton          17   18.2   Fri 08 PM   19.5 Saturday afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3947 9519 3948 9511 3920 9500 3918 9511

  

$$

KSC103-210206-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0072.170520T1139Z-170522T0630Z/
/TNGK1.1.ER.170520T1139Z.170520T1800Z.170521T0630Z.UU/
907 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Stranger Creek near Tonganoxie.
* from Saturday morning to late Sunday night.
* At  8:30 PM Friday the stage was 14.1 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Saturday morning and continue 
  to rise to near 24.7 feet by early Saturday afternoon. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by early Sunday morning.
* At 23.0 feet...Low-lying farmland along the creek floods.

&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Stranger Creek
  Tonganoxie      23   14.1   Fri 08 PM   24.7 Saturday afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3918 9511 3920 9500 3901 9496 3900 9508

  

$$

227 
WGUS83 KEAX 201523
FLSEAX
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1023 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Kansas...

  Stranger Creek near Tonganoxie affecting Leavenworth County.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Kansas...

  Stranger Creek at Easton affecting Atchison and Leavenworth 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive through flowing water. Nearly half of all flood 
fatalities are vehicle related. As little as 6 inches of water may 
cause you to lose control of your vehicle. Two feet of water will 
carry most vehicles away.This product along with additional weather 
and stream information is available at www.weather.gov/kc/.

&&

KSC005-103-210530-
/O.EXT.KEAX.FL.W.0071.000000T0000Z-170521T0530Z/
/ESTK1.2.ER.170519T1623Z.170520T1800Z.170521T0530Z.NO/
1023 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Stranger Creek at Easton.
* until late tonight.
* At  9:30 AM Saturday the stage was 19.2 feet.
* Flood stage is 17.0 feet.
* Moderate flooding is occurring and Moderate flooding is forecast to continue.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 19.4 feet by this
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage tonight.
* At 19.5 feet...Highway 192 just east of Easton is closed due to 
  swift current of water over the road.
* At 18.0 feet...1st street in Easton and 231st street north and 
  south of Easton begin to flood.
* At 17.0 feet...Water enters low-lying fields south of Easton.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Stranger Creek
  Easton          17   19.2   Sat 09 AM   19.4 this afternoon
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3947 9519 3948 9511 3920 9500 3918 9511

  

$$

KSC103-201553-
/O.CAN.KEAX.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TNGK1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1023 AM CDT Sat May 20 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Stranger Creek near Tonganoxie.
* At  9:30 AM Saturday the stage was 16.8 feet.
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage with a value of 
  18.4 feet Sunday morning.


&& 
                       Latest                   
Location          FS   Stage  Day/Time    Forecast

Stranger Creek
  Tonganoxie      23   16.8   Sat 09 AM   18.4 Sunday morning
     
&&
  
LAT...LON 3918 9511 3920 9500 3901 9496 3900 9508

  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
647 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 354 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

An extremely complicated forecast going forward today as well-
advertised upper low spins across the Four Corners region. Early
morning convection continues to move through central and southern
Missouri this hour, with upstream radar and satellite trends
noting next round of developing activity now located across
central and eastern Oklahoma. Main questions going forward today
involve atmospheric recovery following this morning's activity,
and whether shear profiles will be able to support severe
convection by the time next round moves in later this
morning/early afternoon. Additionally, last night's rainfall of
1-3" has primed soil conditions for excessive runoff later
today/tonight should heavy rains develop, which obviously is
leading to heighten flash flood concerns across the fcst area.
All told, a challenging and potentially impactful fcst for the Lwr
Missouri Vly over the next 24 hrs.

Early morning activity should continue to exit stage right through
the predawn hours with a few hours of dry wx anticipated through
the mid/late morning. After this, high-res models show next round
of convection lifting north from south-central Kansas by early
afternoon as the next lead shortwave lifts northeast from the
Southern Plains with time. This feature will begin interacting
with a stalled frontal boundary that remains draped across the
forecast region this morning, mainly just north of the I-70
corridor. The combination of increased DPVA aloft along with
continued low-level frontal convergence should lead to a further
blossoming of convection through the afternoon and into the
evening. Despite the presence of these combined forcing
mechanisms, degree of destabilization remains in question this
morning (persistent cloud cover) along with concerns for deep
layer shear as numerous BUFKIT forecast soundings reveal a very
chaotic wind field pattern through the lowest 10-15 kft. As a
result, convection as it moves north will likely be a messy linear
type complex, with marginally severe hail and occasionally strong
wind gusts the main threats.

Overall severe threat (if it materializes) should begin to wane
by evening as further stabilization occurs. By this point, severe
threat should be transitioning to a hydro threat as PWAT values of
2-3 standard deviations above normal continue to surge into the
region along the heels of a strengthening low-level jet which
should impinge upon the aforementioned stalled frontal boundary.
Current WPC QPF forecast calls for 2-3" for additional rainfall
through Saturday morning, however these totals may be even higher
if any training is able to get going overnight. Heaviest axis of
rain will likely be along the highway 50 and I-70 corridors with
the soils primed for possible flash flooding. WPC's excessive
rainfall forecast places much of our area in a Moderate Risk, and
we certainly cannot argue based on this morning's model solutions.
In any event, the flash flood watch remains in effect through 12z
Saturday. In addition to the flash flood threat, expect to see
rises on area rivers and streams as well, with river point
flooding looking probable.

Rains should gradually come to an end through the day on Saturday
as cool high pressure settles into the Plains/Lower Missouri Vly.
This should lead to a dry conclusion of the weekend with below
normal temperatures making a return to the area. Next chance for
rain arrives as early as Monday as the next front moves through
the area. Quick look at latest models suggests severe cannot be
ruled out with this activity, so the active weather pattern looks
to continue right into next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

IFR cigs prevailing this morning at area terminals as high
boundary layer moisture remains pooled along a stalled frontal
boundary. Fcst soundings suggest the IFR threat will prevail for
several hours this morning before enough mixing occurs by late
morning and early afternoon to result in modest improvements to
low-end MVFR. Further north at STJ, expect longer duration IFR
before some improvement occurs later this afternoon. Next band of
shwrs/storms expected to arrive by mid/late afternoon with another
round anticipated after 00z. With any convective activity, expect
periodic MVFR/IFR conditions with steady rain sliding east after
the 09z time frame.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for MOZ011>014-
     020>023-028>031-037>039-043>045-053-054.

&&

Discussion...32
Aviation...32

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
512 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-201015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
512 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday evening through
 early Saturday morning. A few storms could become strong to severe.
 Additional heavy rain amounts are possible too which may lead to
 flash floding.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
640 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             1 W GARDNER             38.81N 94.95W
05/18/2017  M0.25 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ENOUGH TO COVER THE DECK

0818 PM     HAIL             3 SSW RENO              39.00N 95.13W
05/18/2017  M0.75 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            AT 238TH AND K-32

0831 PM     HAIL             S EFFINGHAM             39.52N 95.40W
05/18/2017  E1.50 INCH       ATCHISON           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0835 PM     HAIL             4 NNW OLATHE            38.94N 94.85W
05/18/2017  M1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

0836 PM     HAIL             2 SSE DE SOTO           38.96N 94.96W
05/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0845 PM     HAIL             4 E DE SOTO             38.98N 94.87W
05/18/2017  M1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0848 PM     HAIL             JARBALO                 39.20N 95.07W
05/18/2017  E0.75 INCH       LEAVENWORTH        KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0850 PM     HAIL             5 S BONNER SPRINGS      38.99N 94.88W
05/18/2017  E1.75 INCH       JOHNSON            KS   PUBLIC

            VIA PHOTO ON SOCIAL MEDIA AT 79TH AND MIZE IN WESTERN
            SHAWNEE

0859 PM     HAIL             BONNER SPRINGS          39.06N 94.88W
05/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       WYANDOTTE          KS   PUBLIC

0900 PM     HAIL             4 N EDWARDSVILLE        39.14N 94.81W
05/18/2017  E1.75 INCH       WYANDOTTE          KS   PUBLIC

0907 PM     HAIL             PAOLA                   38.58N 94.87W
05/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       MIAMI              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0915 PM     HAIL             2 NNW MAYWOOD           39.16N 94.82W
05/18/2017  E1.25 INCH       WYANDOTTE          KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            COVERING THE GROUND

0920 PM     HAIL             3 WNW EDWARDSVILLE      39.09N 94.87W
05/18/2017  M2.50 INCH       WYANDOTTE          KS   PUBLIC

0922 PM     HAIL             5 WNW PARKVILLE         39.23N 94.76W
05/18/2017  M1.25 INCH       PLATTE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

0927 PM     HAIL             WEATHERBY LAKE          39.24N 94.70W
05/18/2017  M1.00 INCH       PLATTE             MO   PUBLIC

0935 PM     HAIL             PLATTE CITY             39.36N 94.78W
05/18/2017  M1.00 INCH       PLATTE             MO   PUBLIC

0935 PM     HAIL             PLATTE CITY             39.36N 94.78W
05/18/2017  M1.00 INCH       PLATTE             MO   PUBLIC

0938 PM     HAIL             2 S PLATTE CITY         39.34N 94.78W
05/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       PLATTE             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            N HIGHWAY AND 136TH

0939 PM     HAIL             4 NNW WEATHERBY LAKE    39.29N 94.72W
05/18/2017  M0.75 INCH       PLATTE             MO   ASOS

            OBSERVED AT KMCI

0955 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              39.39N 94.58W
05/18/2017  E1.75 INCH       CLAY               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

0956 PM     HAIL             SMITHVILLE              39.38N 94.57W
05/18/2017  M1.00 INCH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BUCKETS OF HAIL WERE FALLING

1004 PM     TSTM WND GST     DE SOTO                 38.98N 94.97W
05/18/2017  M78.00 MPH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES UPROOTED

1007 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 ENE GARDNER           38.83N 94.89W
05/18/2017  M59.00 MPH       JOHNSON            KS   ASOS

            MEASURED AT KIXD NEW CENTURY AIRPORT

1009 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 SSE BONNER SPRINGS    38.99N 94.85W
05/18/2017  M59.00 MPH       JOHNSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

1014 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW WEATHERBY LAKE    39.30N 94.72W
05/18/2017  M61.00 MPH       PLATTE             MO   ASOS

            MEASURED AT KMCI

1025 PM     TSTM WND GST     WEATHERBY LAKE          39.24N 94.70W
05/18/2017  E60.00 MPH       PLATTE             MO   PUBLIC

            FROM SOCIAL MEDIA

1030 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NNE GLADSTONE         39.25N 94.54W
05/18/2017  E75.00 MPH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1033 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 NNW GLADSTONE         39.26N 94.58W
05/18/2017  E65.00 MPH       CLAY               MO   AMATEUR RADIO

1036 PM     HAIL             LEXINGTON               39.18N 93.87W
05/18/2017  M0.75 INCH       LAFAYETTE          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

1037 PM     TSTM WND GST     LIBERTY                 39.24N 94.42W
05/18/2017  E60.00 MPH       CLAY               MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

1047 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW BLUE SPRINGS       39.03N 94.31W
05/18/2017                   JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4-6 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES SNAPPED OFF OF HEALTHY OAK
            TREES

1048 PM     TSTM WND GST     LIBERTY                 39.25N 94.42W
05/18/2017  E75.00 MPH       CLAY               MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            LARGE HARDWOOD TREES BENT HORIZONTALLY

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     INDEPENDENCE            39.09N 94.42W
05/18/2017                   JACKSON            MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            6-7INCH TREE BRANCHES DOWN, EST 70MPH GUSTS.

&&

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
719 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             2 SSE PLATTE CITY       39.34N 94.77W
05/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       PLATTE             MO   COCORAHS

&&

SGRANA