Flood Watch 1, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Adair County, MO, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Chariton County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Cooper County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Henry County, MO, Holt County, MO, Howard County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Macon County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Pettis County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Randolph County, MO, Ray County, MO, Saline County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
628 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

.Discussion...
Issued at 350 AM CDT TUE APR 4 2017

Short term (Tonight - Wednesday):

The main concerns in the short term will be the chance for a few
strong storms capable of producing small hail and gusty winds south
of Interstate 70 tonight. These storm will also have the
potential to produce 1 to 2 inches of rain which may exacerbate
ongoing river flooding as well as cause additional river flooding.

Today, weak convergence along a 850mb boundary coupled with a lead
shortwave will bring the chance for a few showers from late this
morning into the afternoon. Mostly cloudy conditions will keep highs
in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Tonight the main upper level trough
will move from northern Oklahoma to central Missouri. Showers and
thunderstorms will overspread the area. Bulk shear of 60-70kts
will be strong but MUCAPE will be limited around 200J/kg across
the southern CWA. This may still be adequate enough to produce a
few strong storms with small hail and gusty winds south of Highway
50. On the other side of the upper level system will be a
deformation-type area where several hours of moderate
precipitation will be possible. One to two inches of precipitation
will be possible tonight into Wednesday morning as this upper
level system slowly meanders through the CWA. The upper level low
will move east of the area by Wednesday evening with conditions
finally drying out. Modest northeasterly winds, showers and clouds
will keep temperatures cool on Wednesday with highs in the mid
40s to mid 50s.

Extended Range (Wednesday night - Monday):

After a very active period, conditions will finally dry out for a
extended period with a warning trend. Thursday will remain cool
under northwest flow aloft on the back side of the upper level
system and high pressure at the surface. expect highs in the 50s.
High pressure will remain over the area through Friday morning with
temperatures dropping into the low to mid 30s. friday morning may
need to be monitored for potential freeze headlines. High pressure
will continue to dominate on Friday as northwest flow aloft weakens.
Expect highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Saturday warm air
advection gets underway as upper level ridging builds into the area
downstream of a upper level trough digging into the Great Basin.
Highs Saturday will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Sunday this
trough will move into the Northern Plains with warm air advection
showers possible late Sunday into Sunday night. Monday a cold front
associated with this upper trough will push through the area
bringing the chance for showers and thunderstorms. Highs will be in
the mid 60s to near 70.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT TUE APR 4 2017

Cigs hovering around 1kft will lift to MVFR by 16Z-17Z as shra move
into the VC of the terminals. Aft 00Z light to ocnl mod shra will
affect the terminals as cigs drop back into IFR cat and vsbys
drop to 2SM-4SM.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...73
Aviation...73

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
620 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051130-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
620 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Expecting off and on showers through Tuesday, with more widespread
rain and thunderstorms later Tuesday evening. Areas south of HWY 50
could see a strong storm or two with hail up to the size of quarters
possible. Heavy rain could cause some isolated flash flooding and
flooding in local rivers and streams.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 Light to moderate rain will persist in the area through Wednesday
afternoon, and local streams could see some flooding into the late
part of the week and into the weekend.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 http://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo