Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
210 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

A large MCS continue to move southeast through IA/MN/WI as of 1
AM. The two main focusing mechanisms appear to be a warm advection
wing near 700mb over central to southeast WI, and another band of
intense updrafts at the edge of the cap, from south central MN to
near Fort Dodge. The southern flank of this will impact our area
through 15Z with heavy rain, and possibly damaging winds and hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The forecast for today will focus on timing out the morning
storms, and increasing the heat and humidity. The front is
expected to be north of the CWA today, and with the expected
rainfall this morning, we should see a very humid day take place.
By late morning, clearing should occur in most areas, with heat
index readings near 90 north to near 100 south. This is near
advisory, but with the uncertainty of storm/cloud evolution, will
not issue any heat related headlines on this shift. The cap that
is is holding over southwest Iowa will advect northeast today,
making the prospect for additional surface based storms in our
area a very low confidence outlook. There is a low chance an
isolated storm could fire in the south today on outflow
convergence, and if it did, a strong storm would be likely. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Hot and humid weather will continue through Thursday, with low
confidence chance for showers and thunderstorms. The air mass will
remain very moist, and storms will carry a locally heavy rain
threat when the occur. As of now, the hottest day appears to be
Wednesday which continues to show potential for a heat advisory
during the afternoon and evening hours, when heat indexes reach
the 95 to 103 range. By Thursday, the front is expected to move
south, shifting the heat threat away from the region, at least for
a day. By Friday and Saturday, another cool front will approach
from the north, with temperatures rebounding back to the upper
80s, and a return to the upper 60s. A low chance for storms is
included for the upcoming front, which does not appear to be
strongly forced at this time.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

Latest upstream radar trends support slightly slower timing for
overnight storms at KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. Still some uncertainty as to
the eventual intensity of winds and have toned them down slightly.
Mainly MVFR ceilings and periods of IFR visibilities will likely
accompany the storms, with a period of MVFR ceilings lingering
into Monday morning. The chance of showers and storms is low at
KBRL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...RP Kinney

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
256 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0247 AM     HAIL             HIAWATHA                42.05N 91.68W
07/10/2017  E0.25 INCH       LINN               IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

GROSS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
352 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

ILC011-015-073-131-161-195-IAC045-163-100945-
Rock Island-Mercer-Whiteside-Henry-Carroll-Bureau-Scott-Clinton-
352 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ROCK ISLAND...
NORTHEASTERN MERCER...WHITESIDE...HENRY...SOUTHEASTERN CARROLL...
NORTHWESTERN BUREAU...CENTRAL SCOTT AND EASTERN CLINTON COUNTIES
UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

At 351 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Savanna to near Blue Grass. Movement
was southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Davenport, Moline, Rock Island, Bettendorf, Clinton, East Moline,
Sterling, Rock Falls, Morrison, Cambridge, Mount Carroll, Silvis,
Geneseo, Eldridge, Milan, Colona, Camanche, Le Claire, Coal Valley
and Fulton.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 74 in Iowa between mile markers 1 and 5.
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 290 and 306.
 Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 1 and 36.
 Interstate 74 in Illinois between mile markers 1 and 33.
 Interstate 88 between mile markers 1 and 44.
 Interstate 280 between mile markers 1 and 18.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4115 9012 4115 9039 4150 9079 4152 9078
      4203 9021 4203 9016 4207 9017 4214 9009
      4189 8963 4158 8962
TIME...MOT...LOC 0851Z 317DEG 36KT 4205 9011 4153 9070

12

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
432 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

ILC071-131-161-187-IAC031-057-087-101-103-107-115-139-163-177-183-
101030-
Henderson-Rock Island-Mercer-Warren-Van
Buren-Keokuk-Cedar-Washington-Muscatine-Jefferson-Henry-Des
Moines-Louisa-Scott-Johnson-
432 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN
HENDERSON...SOUTHWESTERN ROCK ISLAND...MERCER...NORTHERN WARREN...
NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN...SOUTHEASTERN KEOKUK...SOUTHEASTERN CEDAR...
WASHINGTON...MUSCATINE...EASTERN JEFFERSON...HENRY...DES MOINES...
LOUISA...WESTERN SCOTT AND SOUTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 530 AM
CDT...

At 431 AM CDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Montpelier to Columbus Junction to 6
miles east of Harper. Movement was south to southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Davenport, Rock Island, Muscatine, Monmouth, Mount Pleasant,
Washington, Aledo, Wapello, Columbus Junction, Durant, Oquawka, West
Liberty, Wilton, Burgess, Kalona, New London, Walcott, Mediapolis,
Blue Grass and Lone Tree.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 270 and 288.
 Interstate 280 between mile markers 4 and 9.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4171 9077 4115 9044 4093 9044 4084 9184
      4140 9205
TIME...MOT...LOC 0931Z 338DEG 42KT 4140 9079 4129 9134 4135 9192

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
516 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0508 AM     HAIL             4 S RICHMOND            41.40N 91.69W
07/10/2017  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GROSS

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