Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Quad Cities, IA

636 
WWUS53 KDVN 100811
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
311 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

ILC085-IAC045-061-097-105-100845-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-170710T0845Z/
Jo Daviess IL-Jackson IA-Dubuque IA-Jones IA-Clinton IA-
311 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR JO DAVIESS...JACKSON...SOUTHEASTERN DUBUQUE...SOUTHEASTERN JONES
AND NORTHWESTERN CLINTON COUNTIES...

At 310 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Council Hill to near Oxford Junction, moving east
at 40 TO 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Dubuque, Maquoketa, Galena, Bellevue, East Dubuque, Warren, Hanover,
Elizabeth, Woodbine, Delmar, Wyoming, Oxford Junction, Lost Nation,
Andrew, Scales Mound, Apple River, La Motte, Menominee, Onslow and
Monmouth.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4251 8994 4190 9065 4204 9130 4223 9105
      4253 9065 4251 9064
TIME...MOT...LOC 0810Z 288DEG 40KT 4245 9037 4198 9102 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

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105 
WWUS53 KDVN 100822
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
322 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

IAC061-100832-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-170710T0845Z/
Dubuque IA-
322 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DUBUQUE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved east out of the 
warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4190 9065 4204 9130 4230 9075 4230 9067
      4234 9067 4238 9058 4238 9048 4240 9052
      4241 9053 4248 9038 4251 8995
TIME...MOT...LOC 0822Z 286DEG 35KT 4233 9033 4196 9089 

$$

ILC085-IAC045-097-105-100845-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-170710T0845Z/
Jo Daviess IL-Jackson IA-Jones IA-Clinton IA-
322 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 AM CDT
FOR CENTRAL JO DAVIESS...JACKSON...SOUTHERN JONES AND NORTHWESTERN
CLINTON COUNTIES...

At 322 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Elizabeth to near Oxford Junction, moving east at
40 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Maquoketa, Galena, Bellevue, Warren, Hanover, Elizabeth, Woodbine,
Delmar, Wyoming, Oxford Junction, Lost Nation, Andrew, Scales Mound,
Apple River, La Motte, Onslow, Monmouth, Springbrook, St. Donatus and
Center Junction.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4190 9065 4204 9130 4230 9075 4230 9067
      4234 9067 4238 9058 4238 9048 4240 9052
      4241 9053 4248 9038 4251 8995
TIME...MOT...LOC 0822Z 286DEG 35KT 4233 9033 4196 9089 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

12

212 
WWUS53 KDVN 100832
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
332 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

IAC045-097-105-ILC085-100842-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0139.000000T0000Z-170710T0845Z/
Jo Daviess IL-Jackson IA-Jones IA-Clinton IA-
332 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL JO DAVIESS...
JACKSON...SOUTHERN JONES AND NORTHWESTERN CLINTON COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds up 
to 40 MPH and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

LAT...LON 4190 9065 4204 9130 4230 9075 4230 9067
      4234 9067 4238 9058 4238 9048 4240 9052
      4241 9053 4248 9038 4251 8995
TIME...MOT...LOC 0831Z 280DEG 37KT 4231 9020 4194 9076 

$$

12

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
210 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 136 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

A large MCS continue to move southeast through IA/MN/WI as of 1
AM. The two main focusing mechanisms appear to be a warm advection
wing near 700mb over central to southeast WI, and another band of
intense updrafts at the edge of the cap, from south central MN to
near Fort Dodge. The southern flank of this will impact our area
through 15Z with heavy rain, and possibly damaging winds and hail.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

The forecast for today will focus on timing out the morning
storms, and increasing the heat and humidity. The front is
expected to be north of the CWA today, and with the expected
rainfall this morning, we should see a very humid day take place.
By late morning, clearing should occur in most areas, with heat
index readings near 90 north to near 100 south. This is near
advisory, but with the uncertainty of storm/cloud evolution, will
not issue any heat related headlines on this shift. The cap that
is is holding over southwest Iowa will advect northeast today,
making the prospect for additional surface based storms in our
area a very low confidence outlook. There is a low chance an
isolated storm could fire in the south today on outflow
convergence, and if it did, a strong storm would be likely. ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 136 AM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Hot and humid weather will continue through Thursday, with low
confidence chance for showers and thunderstorms. The air mass will
remain very moist, and storms will carry a locally heavy rain
threat when the occur. As of now, the hottest day appears to be
Wednesday which continues to show potential for a heat advisory
during the afternoon and evening hours, when heat indexes reach
the 95 to 103 range. By Thursday, the front is expected to move
south, shifting the heat threat away from the region, at least for
a day. By Friday and Saturday, another cool front will approach
from the north, with temperatures rebounding back to the upper
80s, and a return to the upper 60s. A low chance for storms is
included for the upcoming front, which does not appear to be
strongly forced at this time.
ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

Latest upstream radar trends support slightly slower timing for
overnight storms at KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. Still some uncertainty as to
the eventual intensity of winds and have toned them down slightly.
Mainly MVFR ceilings and periods of IFR visibilities will likely
accompany the storms, with a period of MVFR ceilings lingering
into Monday morning. The chance of showers and storms is low at
KBRL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Ervin
AVIATION...RP Kinney

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
810 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-110115-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
810 PM CDT Sun Jul 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

The Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk for severe
thunderstorms along the Highway 20 corridor during the overnight
hours. A slight risk extends southward to include the Interstate
80 corridor, with a marginal risk as far south as southeast Iowa
and western Illinois.

A line of severe thunderstorms, with bowing segments producing
swaths of very damaging winds, is expected to push into the
northern half of the outlook area mainly after midnight. Damaging
winds of up to 70 mph, with swaths of around 80 mph appears likely,
especially in the enhanced risk area.

Backbuilding or repeating thunderstorms over generally the same
area in the wake of the intense bow echo will produce torrential
rainfall, with amounts of several inches in a short time possible.
Any areas that receive this amount of rain may lead to flash flooding
and rapid rises on creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
Monday afternoon, east of a Carthage to Aledo Illinois line. A
marginal risk exists for the remainder of the outlook area.

Thunderstorms will continue to be possible, as a stalled front
remains over the area through Thursday. There will be a threat for
heavy rainfall, as well as damaging winds from occasional rounds
of storms during this period. At this time, the timing of the
periods of storms are not certain, but the main threat does
appear to be heavy rain rates and eventual flooding.

Very moist air will combine with hot temperatures, to bring
afternoon heat index readings to the 95 to 105 range Monday
through Wednesday. Locations along and south of Interstate 80 are
most at risk for the intense heat, as clouds and thunderstorms
could offset the heat farther north.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed between 12 am and 7 am
early Monday morning, mainly along and north of Interstate 80.

Haase/RP Kinney

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
207 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

IAC019-055-061-105-113-100800-
Buchanan-Dubuque-Jones-Delaware-Linn-
207 AM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BUCHANAN...
DUBUQUE...NORTHERN JONES...DELAWARE AND NORTHEASTERN LINN COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 AM CDT...

At 205 AM CDT, a cluster of strong thunderstorms were located near
Dundee, or near Manchester, moving southeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms as they pass by.

Locations impacted include...
Dubuque, Manchester, Asbury, Dyersville, Monticello, Cascade,
Epworth, Farley, Peosta, Edgewood, Earlville, Coggon, Hopkinton,
Delhi, New Vienna, Colesburg, Worthington, Holy Cross, Ryan and
Greeley.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4261 9069 4258 9068 4230 9084 4229 9090
      4218 9090 4210 9094 4232 9173 4265 9154
      4265 9112
TIME...MOT...LOC 0705Z 290DEG 36KT 4256 9147

12