Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
726 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 721 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

A fairly significant re-work of the forecast has been done.

Convection associated with the first upper level disturbance is
rapidly moving east of the area. Thus mainly dry conditions are in
store for most of the area through mid-morning.

Diurnal heating and the approach of the next upper level
disturbance is expected to initiate new convection late this
morning. Boundaries left over from the overnight convection
combined with differential heating will allow the convection to
grow upscale during the afternoon into a loosely organized mcs
along and east of the Mississippi.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

09Z surface data had inferred lows in western Wisconsin and near
Kansas City. Between the two lows a weak cold front ran across
central and northeast Iowa. Dew points ahead of the front were in
the 50s. Behind the front, dew points were in the 30s and 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Will keep discussion short this morning with active weather
ongoing. The main forecast issues are convective trends/
intensity/coverage in the near term and again this afternoon.

Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts will continue during
the early morning hours. Steep mid level lapse rates and MU CAPE
over 2000 j/kg are supporting strong updrafts with isolated hail
around golfball size. High resolution models indicate the
convection will push east of the area after 7 am. Late this
morning and afternoon, showers and storms are expected to fire
along a cold front in eastern Iowa, then progress eastward through
early evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and sufficient
cape/shear point to more isolated large hail, especially along and
east of the Mississippi River. Bufr forecast soundings also
indicate steep low level lapse rates for a localized strong wind
threat. Any lingering storms will end along the U.S. Highway 20
corridor by late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

The long term period will feature some periods of active weather
with mainly above normal high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.
The first window for showers and storms will be Wednesday night
into Thursday. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
forecast for Friday into Saturday, and possibly again on Sunday.
No significant hydro issues are expected for the rain through
Thursday, but there is some potential for widespread heavy rain
late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

The first round of convection is moving east of the Mississippi.
Thus VFR conditions will be seen through 17z/10. After 17z/10 new
convection will develop from the day-time heating roughly along
and east of the Mississippi. KMLI/KBRL have the best chance of
having a TSRA impact the terminal area that would result in brief
MVFR or even IFR conditions. After 00z/11 VFR conditions are
expected as high pressure builds into the Midwest.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...RP Kinney
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...08

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
636 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111145-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
636 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms will develop late this morning and
afternoon in eastern Iowa, then spread eastward through early
evening. Isolated large hail and wind gusts to 60 mph are possible
with the most intense storms. Areas along and east of the
Mississippi River are favored for isolated severe storms.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and again Friday through Saturday. It is too early to
determine the potential for severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early this
evening, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River.

RP Kinney

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1002 AM CDT MON APR 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DEPUE                   41.33N 89.30W
04/10/2017                   BUREAU             IL   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT, TREE DOWN ON ROUTE 29, TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

PETERS

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