Special Weather Statement, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
343 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Will keep discussion short this morning with active weather
ongoing. The main forecast issues are convective trends/
intensity/coverage in the near term and again this afternoon.

Isolated large hail and strong wind gusts will continue during
the early morning hours. Steep mid level lapse rates and MU CAPE
over 2000 j/kg are supporting strong updrafts with isolated hail
around golfball size. High resolution models indicate the
convection will push east of the area after 7 am. Late this
morning and afternoon, showers and storms are expected to fire
along a cold front in eastern Iowa, then progress eastward through
early evening. Steep mid level lapse rates and sufficient
cape/shear point to more isolated large hail, especially along and
east of the Mississippi River. Bufr forecast soundings also
indicate steep low level lapse rates for a localized strong wind
threat. Any lingering storms will end along the U.S. Highway 20
corridor by late evening.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

The long term period will feature some periods of active weather
with mainly above normal high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.
The first window for showers and storms will be Wednesday night
into Thursday. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are
forecast for Friday into Saturday, and possibly again on Sunday.
No significant hydro issues are expected for the rain through
Thursday, but there is some potential for widespread heavy rain
late this week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT Sun Apr 9 2017

Generally VFR conditions with isolated storms and showers between 10/07Z
and 10/10Z at MLI/BRL terminals are handled with tempo group of possible
brief high end MVFR conditions. South winds of 10 to 20+ MPH with low
level wind shear will shift to the west by 10/10Z with 10 to 20+ MPH
gusts by late morning into the afternoon. There is a chance of showers
and storms to redevelop Monday PM at MLI/BRL terminals which is handled
as vicinity wording.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RP Kinney
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Nichols

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
429 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-110930-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
429 AM CDT Mon Apr 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms will continue along and east of the
Mississippi River through daybreak. Isolated large hail around
quarter size and wind gusts to 60 mph are possible. Storms will
move east of the area by 8 am.

Scattered thunderstorms will develop late this morning and
afternoon in eastern Iowa, then spread eastward through early
evening. Isolated large hail and wind gusts to 60 mph are possible
with the most intense storms. Areas along and east of the
Mississippi River are favored for isolated severe storms.

The Rock River near Joslin is experiencing flooding. Please see
the latest Flood Statement for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Scattered thunderstorms are possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and again Friday through Saturday. It is too early to
determine the potential for severe weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early this
evening, mainly along and east of the Mississippi River.

RP Kinney

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