Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Quad Cities, IA

656 
WWUS53 KDVN 102021
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
321 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

IAC101-177-102100-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-170510T2100Z/
Van Buren IA-Jefferson IA-
321 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 321 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stockport, or 8
miles southeast of Fairfield, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fairfield, Birmingham, Stockport, Lockridge, Glasgow, Morris Park,
Mount Zion, Utica, Germanville, Mac Coon Access, Salina, Collett,
Round Prairie Park, Kilbourn, Beckwith and Jefferson County Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather
including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and
tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an interior room,
a bathroom or closet or basement.

&&

LAT...LON 4078 9202 4104 9198 4112 9172 4078 9172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 262DEG 27KT 4090 9188 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

868 
WWUS53 KDVN 102026
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
326 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

IAC101-177-102100-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-170510T2100Z/
Van Buren IA-Jefferson IA-
326 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN AND SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 326 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Stockport, or 9
miles southeast of Fairfield, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Birmingham, Stockport, Lockridge, Mac Coon Access, Round Prairie
Park, Glasgow, Morris Park, Mount Zion, Utica, Kilbourn and Beckwith.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

This thunderstorm is capable of producing all types of severe weather
including extremely large hail, destructive straight line winds and
tornadoes. Move quickly to a safe shelter, such as an interior room,
a bathroom or closet or basement.

&&

LAT...LON 4078 9202 4096 9195 4112 9172 4078 9172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2026Z 263DEG 26KT 4090 9183 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

612 
WWUS53 KDVN 102046
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
346 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

IAC101-177-102055-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0059.000000T0000Z-170510T2100Z/
Van Buren IA-Jefferson IA-
346 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN VAN BUREN AND
SOUTHEASTERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southeastern Iowa.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
Eastern Van Buren county.

LAT...LON 4078 9202 4096 9195 4112 9172 4078 9172
TIME...MOT...LOC 2038Z 263DEG 26KT 4092 9165 

$$

ERVIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
309 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Severe weather event underway with Severe Thunderstorm Watch
#203 generally along and south of I80 through 8 PM CDT. Latest sfc
analysis suggests the main warm front located from near Fairfield
IA, to Burlington, and to south of Monmouth in west central IL. LLVL
CAPE and baroclinicity gradients draped from west-to-east acrs the
southern third of the DVN CWA and highway for enhanced convective
swaths through early evening. Then drier pattern for end of the week
into the weekend, with a warm up on the way as the weekend progresses.
Then the latest run medium range models still advertising a
warmer, more summer like pattern next week with the convective
storm track laying out in or near the DVN CWA at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Tonight...As mentioned above, severe event ongoing generally along
and especially south of I80 in more favorable shear  combined with
adequate thermodynamics. Some impressive 0-3KM SRH values currently
migrating out of south central IA into southeastern IA combined with
1000-2000 J/KG CAPES. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches and flash
flooding also a possibility. Then several of the latest HiRes
solutions/CAM's continue with their trends of progressing most of
the organized convection east and southeast of the DVN CWA by 00z-
01z. Just lingering light showers and lowering cloud bases behind
this activity acrs much of the CWA overnight. Many of the models also
have trended further south acrs MO with main cold front and wake
llvl cool pool that the nocturnal LLJ will impinge on. Thus this
heavier overnight convection and heavy rain/flooding threat may lay
out ideally south of our area of concern acrs central MO. Locally
more in the way of post-frontal cooling north-northeast sfc flow,
clouds and lingering pockets of lighter rain or showers.

Thursday...With more progressive southward surge of the main front
and boundary layer northerly flow push, there may not be much in the
way of lingering overrunning showers even in the southern CWA after
mid morning. Lingering elevated thunder threat also appears to be
shifting to the south. Fcst highs banking on some thinning of the
overcast especially along and north of I80.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

After an active Wednesday into early Thursday, look for mainly
quiet weather heading into the weekend.

Thursday night through Tuesday...After the upper level trough and
cold front move through the region Thursday, expect upper level
ridging and surface high pressure to gradually build across the
middle Mississippi River Valley beginning on Friday. On Saturday
morning, the GFS, NAM and Canadian are trying to hint at some
light sprinkles or rain showers across the far east CWA as a jet
streak rounds the back of the upper level trough. However,
moisture appears to lack consistency at all levels, so will
likely only end up with cloud cover. Nonetheless, expect mostly
sunny skies through the weekend and early next week, with high
temperatures gradually warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s as
winds become southerly and upper level heights increase.

Tuesday on...Models begin to diverge on possible scenarios
beginning in this period. Consistency does exist, however, on
things becoming active as series of upper level shortwaves and
troughs impact our region beginning Tuesday. At this time, the
potential does exist for showers and thunderstorm development as
there is indication of decent Gulf moisture transport and decent
buoyancy. It's too early for talk of severe weather, but this
potential will need to be monitored in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Busy aviation forecast as thunderstorms will affect many of the
sites in the next six hours, some of these storms will be severe
with damaging winds, hail and tornadoes all possible. IFR cigs and
even some vsbys are possible in the heavier rain. After the
convective weather, expect a wind shift, slightly cooler temps and
with it, the chance for MVFR and possibly IFR cigs.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs/12
SHORT TERM...Gibbs/12
LONG TERM...12/Speck
AVIATION...Gibbs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
455 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-111000-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
455 AM CDT Wed May 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of the outlook area
this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center has a
placed a slight risk over the area roughly south of a line from
Independence Iowa to Freeport Illinois.

Scattered thunderstorms will move through eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois this morning. These are not expected to be
severe, but may produce locally heavy downpours, frequent
lightning and small hail.

Thunderstorms are expected to redevelop this afternoon and
continue into this evening. Some of these may be severe, with a
threat of large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. The
initial severe weather threat will be associated with supercell
thunderstorms over eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois after 2
pm. These will be closely linked to the location of a warm front,
which remains uncertain at this time.

From late afternoon into the evening, more widespread coverage of
thunderstorms is expected ahead of an advancing cold front. In
addition to the continued potential for severe weather, these
storms may also produce locally heavy rainfall and a threat of
flash flooding.

Area rivers are experiencing flooding. Please see the
latest Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.

Sheets

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1107 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1106 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 S LADORA              41.71N 92.18W
05/10/2017  M1.05 INCH       IOWA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN FELL IN 90 MINUTES.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
234 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     HAIL             1 SW BIRMINGHAM         40.87N 91.96W
05/10/2017  E1.00 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            COUPLE STONES UP TO QUARTERS.

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
238 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0227 PM     HAIL             2 SSW BIRMINGHAM        40.86N 91.96W
05/10/2017  M1.00 INCH       VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DELAYED REPORT, TIME ESTIMATED

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
250 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     1 NW HILLSBORO          40.85N 91.73W
05/10/2017                   VAN BUREN          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BRIEF FUNNEL 15 TO 30 SECONDS LONG.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0254 PM     TORNADO          1 N SALEM               40.87N 91.62W
05/10/2017                   HENRY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WAS BRIEFLY ON THE GROUND AS A ROPE, TORNADO HAS LIFTED.

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
302 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0259 PM     TORNADO          W SALEM                 40.85N 91.62W
05/10/2017                   HENRY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TOUCHDOWN FOR ABOUT 3 MINUTES WEST OF SALEM 1 TO 2 MILES
            MOVING EAST. LIFTED BEFORE REACHING THE TOWN OF SALEM.

&&

BILLN