Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Quad Cities, IA

336 
WWUS53 KDVN 212239
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
539 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

IAC061-212315-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-170721T2315Z/
Dubuque IA-
539 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR NORTH CENTRAL DUBUQUE COUNTY...

At 539 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Sherrill, or 10
miles northwest of Dubuque, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Sherrill, Balltown, Waupeton, Mud Lake Park and Finley's Landing
Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4264 9072 4263 9070 4259 9069 4257 9066
      4256 9066 4264 9096 4265 9090 4268 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 291DEG 22KT 4263 9080 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

UTTECH

467 
WWUS53 KDVN 212301
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
601 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

IAC061-212310-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-170721T2315Z/
Dubuque IA-
601 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL DUBUQUE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4264 9072 4263 9070 4259 9069 4257 9066
      4256 9066 4264 9096 4265 9090 4268 9089
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 284DEG 24KT 4259 9061 

$$

UTTECH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
357 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Quasi-stationary front undulating generally west-to-east acrs
central IA and lingering outflow boundaries on northern fringe of
ongoing heat dome, to be focus of occasional rounds of severe and
heavy rain producing thunderstorms through at least Saturday
morning. Northwest flow still on track to bring about a reprieve
from the storms, heat and humidity by late Sunday and into early
next week. Until then, severe storms and flooding rains possible for
select areas of the CWA, and resultant river flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Tonight...Will keep ongoing heat headlines going through Saturday
evening with lag in cooler, less humid post-frontal air not coming
until late Sunday. But with the ongoing caveat that temporary bouts
of storms, cooled outflow and convective debris will produce some
passing breaks in the excessive heat.

Earlier issued afternoon AFD update still on track, and watching
upstream convection acrs western into central IA for further
development and eventual convective watch coming. Outflow boundary
from passing showers/storms to the north and northeast, colliding
with main quasi-stationary front and holding it up from near Sioux
Falls...down to along the I80 corridor in the local area. This opens
up at least the north half of the fcst area, if not more, to
thunderstorms complexes from late this afternoon and into the
evening. Enhanced severe storms possible along the outflow boundary,
along with earlier concerns of bowing segments possibly producing 70
to 80 MPH winds at the apex. With more than one upstream
MCV/circulation seen on Visible and LLVL water vapor imagery, there
could be several "waves" of storms tonight. Also, concerns of
slightly elevated storms firing on nose of nocturnal LLJ up and over
lingering boundaries, then propagating along the same paths for
localized swaths of very heavy rainfall. Current indications suggest
that areas most susceptible for this phenomena are along and north
of the current instability gradient/I80 corridor. Thus, like
mentioned with earlier update, have gone ahead and expanded the
Flash Flood Watch for tonight for areas generally along and north of
I80. Could see localized swaths of 3-5 inches in these areas or even
more if the above mentioned training scenario unfolds and persists
longer into Sat morning.

Saturday...Just see some lingering non-severe storms or showers along
the front in the southern to eastern CWA for portions of Sat morning
and midday, then the front lights up mainly along and south of the
CWA later Sat afternoon and evening. Cool and less humid air lag
even behind the front will make for one more hot day.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Night through next Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Quick summary of the longer term, cooler and drier conditions still
on track for Late Sunday into early next week. Highs in the 70s to
low 80s for Monday and possibly Tue. Then warmer temps to try and
build back toward the area later in the week. Precip chances also
return by Wednesday night or Thu.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Incoming rounds of thunderstorms to be large impacts at most TAF
sites except maybe the BRL terminal, from late afternoon and into
mid evening with the first strong wave. Then additional storms
may fire and move along the same areas later tonight and into
early Sat morning before moving off to the east. MVFR to IFR
conditions withe the heavier bouts of storms, and concern with
sudden strong gusty winds associated with them from the west or
northwest. Heavy rain reduced VSBYS and lowered CIGs as well with
passing strong storms. Outflow boundaries will make for
challenging wind direction fcsts, plenty of variable changes
through the evening. Will leave BRL out of the mess for now, but
can't totally rule out even this southern site form getting
impacted by storms this evening and overnight. Better conditions
coming post-frontally as Saturday progresses.   ..12..

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Maquoketa River and Wapsipinicon River... Currently below action
stage. Forecast is for significant rises and the possibility of
minor to moderate flooding developing within the next 24 hrs, but
this is largely based upon WPC 24 hr rain amounts which is 1.5 to
over 2 inches across these basins. Have issued a flood watch for
Independence, Manchester and Maquoketa since these sites based on
forecast rainfall are shown to go above flood stage within the next
24 hrs, and less than 50 percent confidence due to uncertainty on
rainfall amounts. Flooding is also shown at Dewitt and Anamosa Shaw
Rd, but these are not shown to go above FS until late in the weekend
thus far enough out and low confidence precludes anything from just
mention in AFD right now.

Rock River... Flooding is occurring along much of the Rock River
except for Moline due to routed water from recent heavy rainfall.
Additional heavy rainfall of 1.5 to 2.5 inches was used in the
generation of afternoon forecasts, which results in major flooding
at all 3 forecast points in our HSA... (Como, Joslin and Moline)
cresting late in the weekend or early next week based on this
additional rainfall. If this widespread heavy rain does not
materialize, then forecasts crests will be much lower.

Pecatonica River... River is approaching FS, and is forecast to
crest into moderate flood stage by the middle of next week.
Confidence is greatest on reaching minor flood stage, and should the
heavy rainfall not materialize over the next 24 hrs then the crest
will be lower.

Mississippi River... Rising tributary rivers over north of I-80
will likely lead to rises on the Mississippi River mostly next
week and especially from Quad Cities on southward. At this time
most are significant within bank rises or near action stage, and
these rises too are dependent on axis of heavy rainfall over the
24+ hrs.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for Benton-Buchanan-
     Cedar-Clinton-Delaware-Dubuque-Iowa-Jackson-Johnson-Jones-
     Linn-Muscatine-Scott.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Cedar-Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Iowa-Jefferson-Johnson-Keokuk-Lee-Louisa-
     Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Benton-Clinton-Jones-
     Linn.

IL...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for Bureau-Carroll-
     Henry IL-Jo Daviess-Putnam-Rock Island-Stephenson-Whiteside.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Hancock-
     Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-Rock Island-Warren.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Bureau-Putnam-
     Whiteside.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Clark-
     Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...12
HYDROLOGY...McClure

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
458 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-221000-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
458 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across portions of
the Outlook Area this afternoon and evening. The environment is
conducive for severe weather with damaging winds, tornadoes, flash
flooding and large hail as the main threats. A few supercell
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, before one
or more bow echoes develop and move across the area later this
evening. Some of these storms could be fast moving. Later tonight,
storms are expected to be slower moving, and possibly move across
the same areas. This may produce localized flash flooding. A Flash
Flood Watch is in effect tonight for areas generally along and
north of the Interstate 80 corridor.

The Rock and Pecatonica rivers are experiencing, or will
experience moderate to major flooding. Please see the latest
River Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

Hot and humid weather will continue into this evening, with
heat indices up to 110 degrees south of Highway 30. Excessive
heat warnings and heat advisories remain in effect for most of
the outlook area through Saturday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are possible Saturday,
especially along and south of the Highway 34 corridor. Then
isolated thunderstorms are possible on Sunday afternoon. Severe
weather is possible for both these periods, but confidence on
timing and favored locations remains low. If severe storms do
occur Saturday, the main threats would be damaging winds and
flash flooding. Large hail may be more of a threat on Sunday
afternoon.

Hot and muggy conditions will continue Saturday, with afternoon
heat indices up to 110 degrees south of Highway 30.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely this afternoon through the early
morning hours.

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
511 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0427 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 NNW ELY               41.89N 91.59W
07/21/2017  M1.40 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN 15 MINUTES.

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
512 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HAIL             2 N ELY                 41.90N 91.58W
07/21/2017  M0.25 INCH       LINN               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
522 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WNW WILLIAMSTOWN        41.57N 91.74W
07/21/2017                   JOHNSON            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE BRANCHES DOWN. WIND ESTIMATED AT 50-60 MPH.

&&

RAYW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
524 PM CDT FRI JUL 21 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0512 PM     HAIL             WNW WILLIAMSTOWN        41.57N 91.74W
07/21/2017  E1.00 INCH       JOHNSON            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

RAYW