Severe Thunderstorm Warning 161, NWS Quad Cities, IA

064 
WWUS53 KDVN 210258
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
958 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

IAC101-107-183-210345-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-170721T0345Z/
Keokuk IA-Washington IA-Jefferson IA-
958 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEOKUK...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 958 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Packwood, or 9
miles north of Fairfield, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fairfield, Brighton, Richland, Maharishi Vedic City, Packwood,
Pleasant Plain, Ollie, Fairfield Municipal Airport, Perlee, Linby,
East Pleasant Plain, Germanville, Brookville, Salina, Lake Darling
State Park, Rubio and Beckwith.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4127 9181 4101 9174 4103 9211 4116 9214
      4119 9217 4122 9215
TIME...MOT...LOC 0258Z 267DEG 21KT 4113 9203 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

764 
WWUS53 KDVN 210302
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1002 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

IAC101-107-183-210345-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-170721T0345Z/
Keokuk IA-Washington IA-Jefferson IA-
1002 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEOKUK...SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN
JEFFERSON COUNTIES...

At 1002 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Packwood, or 8
miles north of Fairfield, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Fairfield, Brighton, Richland, Maharishi Vedic City, Packwood,
Pleasant Plain, Fairfield Municipal Airport, Perlee, East Pleasant
Plain, Germanville, Salina, Lake Darling State Park, Rubio and
Beckwith.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4127 9181 4101 9174 4103 9207 4114 9211
      4121 9206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0302Z 270DEG 19KT 4112 9201 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

181 
WWUS53 KDVN 210316
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
1016 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

IAC101-107-183-210326-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0161.000000T0000Z-170721T0345Z/
Keokuk IA-Washington IA-Jefferson IA-
1016 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEOKUK...
SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
moved out of the warned area.  Therefore, the warning has been
cancelled.  However gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible
with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4127 9181 4101 9174 4103 9207 4114 9211
      4121 9206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 267DEG 21KT 4112 9190 

$$

ERVIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
623 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Quasi-stationary front undulating generally west-to-east acrs
central IA and lingering outflow boundaries on northern fringe of
ongoing heat dome, to be focus of occasional rounds of severe and
heavy rain producing thunderstorms through the first half of the
weekend, before northwest flow brings about a reprieve from the
storms, heat and humidity by early next week. Until then, flooding
rains possible for select areas of the CWA, and resultant river
flooding. Current area more sensitive right now are far northwestern
IL that got hit with heavy rain last night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Tonight...Will keep ongoing heat headlines going through at least
Fri evening, but with temporary bouts of storms and convective
debris producing some passing breaks in the excessive heat.

As for storm chances tonight, see two scenarios unfolding. First one
is in the VCNTY of the above mentioned front acrs central IA along
and south of I80, where LLVL moisture convergence is occurring. This
would be this evening where isolated to sctrd storms could fire, if
the EML can be overcome. The other zone would be along elevated warm
front draped acrs the north half of IA, into northwest IL where CU
field is ongoing. This could be more from mid evening and into the
overnight, early Fri morning hours. Will cover potentials with low
to moderate chance POPS. If storms could get going, despite marginal
shear, a few could be strong with gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Patchy fog possible in pooled sfc DPT fields and light
winds later tonight into early morning.

Friday...Whatever thunderstorm activity lingers out of Thu night into
Fri morning may diurnally wane. This should allow some of the heat
to rebuild, thus the ongoing heat headlines. But some areas to the
north may not recover and stay below true excessive heat criteria.
Then the main from will try to retreat north, possibly adjusting
it's way from northwest of Cedar Rapids, to princeton IL by evening.
This could be the late afternoon focus for more storms. With more
organized storm clusters developing acrs southern MN and looking to
propagate east-southeast along thermal gradient, along with the late
afternoon frontal alignment locally opening up NW IL to more
storms, will issue a Flash Flood watch for the 3 NW IL counties hard
hit by heavy rain last night, Jo Daviess, Stephenson, and Carroll
from 21z Fri through 14z Sat. Strong to severe storms possible Fri
afternoon where they fire.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Hot & humid with storms and heavy rains with risk of severe into
Saturday...then return to cooler and drier conditions.

Long Term Forecast Confidence Assessment...fair or average with by
far the primary issue is timing, intensity and coverage of
convection abd heavy rainfall Friday night into Saturday AM due to
feedback issues.

Friday night...expect moderate to locally heavy rains over NE 1/2 of
area with retreating warm front and low pressure system with some
portions receiving 1 to 3 inches possible.  This in far NE sections
is enough to warrant Flash Flood Watch over NE 3 counties that got
lots of water last 24 hours.  Some severe also possible with
damaging winds main risk.   Mins of in the lower to middle 70s due
to high dewpoints and clouds are reasonable.

Saturday and Saturday night...another hot and humid day with highs
into lower to middle 90s with heat indices 100 to 105 degrees over
all but far north sections.  Some concern POPS may be too low for
later shifts to reassess into Saturday night.  Mins in the upper 60s
to lower 70s are expected as drier air starts to move in.

Sunday...Turning a bit cooler and definitely less humid as NW winds
allow for dewpoints to fall through the day.  Decent gradient with
lower 80s north to lower 90s south as core of cool air doesn't
arrive until later in the day into Monday.

Sunday night through Tuesday Night...fair with Canadian high
pressure and slightly below normal temperatures with highs 75 to 85
and lows 55 to to 65 and moderately low humidity.

Wednesday through Thursday...near to slightly above normal as higher
moisture and more humid air allows for chances of typical late
summer convection mostly in PM hours.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

A low confidence hot and humid forecast remains in place tonight.
Conditions are mainly VFR outside of storms, and that should be
the rule except for a period of light fog early in the morning.
There remains enough confidence that storms will move through the
area in the mid evening to early morning hours to allow for a
tempo wording in forecasts north of Burlington. That said, BRL
has a nearby storm that is slowly moving east as fo 23Z. That
storm could impact the BRL airport, but it also may die quickly
before moving that far east. It is isolated and very slow moving.
ERVIN

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

Rivers...have issued a Flood Watch for points on Rock River due to
last nights widespread heavy rains of 2 to 5+ inches in the basin
averages. If additional widespread heavy rains occur Friday
night...then major flooding is likely in many or all most forecast
points.

Rainfall...area rains very possible in northeast sections could be
locally widespread 2 plus inches.  This could result in local flash
flooding issues in areas that received over 2 inches last night.
This is the reason for the Flash Flood Watch in the northeast.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Benton-Clinton-Jones-
     Linn.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Cedar-Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Iowa-Jefferson-Johnson-Keokuk-Lee-Louisa-
     Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Bureau-Putnam-
     Whiteside.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Hancock-
     Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-Rock Island-Warren.

     Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning
     for Carroll-Jo Daviess-Stephenson.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Clark-
     Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Nichols
AVIATION...Ervin
HYDROLOGY...Nichols

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
338 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-212045-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
338 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms with strong winds, small hail and torrential rainfall
will impact portions of eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois early
this morning. Heavy rain falling on areas already saturated from
recent storms may lead to localized flash flooding.

Later this afternoon and tonight, scattered thunderstorms may redevelop
across eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. These storms will have the
potential to produce damaging wind, large hail and torrential rainfall.

Area rivers are expected to experience flooding. Please see the latest
Flood Statements and Flood Warnings for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Friday through Saturday...several rounds of thunderstorm complexes will
push across portions of the outlook area, mainly along and north of
Interstate 80. There is the potential for these storms to be severe
with damaging winds and large hail. Torrential rainfall is likely with
several inches of rain possible in a short time. This could lead to
localized flash flooding. However, confidence is low on the timing
and exact location of the thunderstorm complexes.

Hot and humid conditions can be expected through Saturday. The hotter
temperatures should generally occur near and south of Highway 30. Temperatures
are expected to push well into the 90s with dewpoints well into the
70s to around 80. This will push heat index values to 105 to 110 every
afternoon through Saturday. But cloud cover and storm outflow may bring
temporary cool downs to the ambient temperatures, especially north
of Highway 30.

Heat advisories and excessive heat warnings are in place for northeast
Missouri, much of eastern Iowa and west central Illinois through Saturday.
Please see the latest National Weather Service statements for details.

River flooding impacts could be high, especially on the Rock River
if the river basin does receive widespread 2 plus inches of rain. This
could result in flooding on the Mississippi River later next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
812 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N MOUNT PLEASANT      40.97N 91.54W
07/20/2017                   HENRY              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE ROAD DETOUR SIGN FLIPPED OVER ALONG WITH A PIECE OF
            FENCE BLOWN DOWN.

&&

12

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
813 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             4 W MOUNT PLEASANT      40.96N 91.62W
07/20/2017  M0.88 INCH       HENRY              IA   PUBLIC

0740 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 W MOUNT PLEASANT      40.96N 91.62W
07/20/2017  M55.00 MPH       HENRY              IA   PUBLIC

0740 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 W MOUNT PLEASANT      40.96N 91.62W
07/20/2017  M3.75 INCH       HENRY              IA   PUBLIC

            RAIN FELL IN PAST 1 HOUR.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
815 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             WASHINGTON              41.30N 91.69W
07/20/2017  M0.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         IA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
829 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     HAIL             1 W WASHINGTON          41.30N 91.70W
07/20/2017  E0.25 INCH       WASHINGTON         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
839 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0832 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LOCKRIDGE               40.99N 91.75W
07/20/2017                   JEFFERSON          IA   PUBLIC

            DOWNED POWER LINES.

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
910 PM CDT THU JUL 20 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MOUNT PLEASANT          40.96N 91.55W
07/20/2017                   HENRY              IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            NUMEROUS STREETS IN TOWN INUNDATED WITH WATER. ONE
            VEHICLE DISABLED BY WATER AND TOWED IN 500 BLOCK OF N.
            LINCOLN ST. TIME ESTIMATED.

&&

RP KINNEY