Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Quad Cities, IA

578 
WWUS53 KDVN 200019
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
719 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

IAC055-061-097-105-113-200100-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-170720T0100Z/
Jackson IA-Dubuque IA-Jones IA-Delaware IA-Linn IA-
719 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR JACKSON...DUBUQUE...JONES...SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN LINN COUNTIES...

At 719 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from La Motte to near Cascade to near Prairieburg, moving
south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Dubuque, Maquoketa, Anamosa, Manchester, Asbury, Dyersville,
Monticello, Cascade, Epworth, Farley, Peosta, Earlville, Olin,
Hopkinton, Wyoming, Oxford Junction, Delhi, Andrew, New Vienna and
Worthington.

If you are at Monticello Fairgrounds you should seek safe shelter
immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

&&

LAT...LON 4251 9064 4248 9066 4245 9061 4203 9043
      4203 9090 4196 9090 4195 9097 4196 9134
      4248 9150 4255 9110 4256 9066
TIME...MOT...LOC 0019Z 339DEG 26KT 4229 9060 4227 9094 4225 9132 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

701 
WWUS53 KDVN 200026
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
726 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

IAC055-061-097-105-113-200100-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-170720T0100Z/
Jackson IA-Dubuque IA-Jones IA-Delaware IA-Linn IA-
726 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR JACKSON...SOUTHERN DUBUQUE...JONES...SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND
NORTHEASTERN LINN COUNTIES...

At 725 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near La Motte to near Canton to Langworthy, moving
south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Dubuque, Maquoketa, Anamosa, Manchester, Dyersville, Monticello,
Cascade, Epworth, Farley, Peosta, Earlville, Olin, Hopkinton,
Wyoming, Oxford Junction, Delhi, Andrew, Worthington, La Motte and
Martelle.

If you are at Monticello Fairgrounds you should seek safe shelter
immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 9067 4247 9065 4245 9061 4203 9043
      4203 9090 4196 9090 4195 9097 4196 9134
      4248 9150 4253 9122 4246 9084
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 354DEG 31KT 4224 9059 4222 9093 4220 9124 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

214 
WWUS53 KDVN 200033
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
733 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

IAC113-200043-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-170720T0100Z/
Linn IA-
733 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN LINN COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4249 9067 4247 9065 4245 9061 4203 9043
      4203 9090 4196 9090 4195 9097 4198 9123
      4238 9121 4245 9114 4246 9084
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 353DEG 26KT 4224 9058 4222 9092 4221 9106 

$$

IAC055-061-097-105-200100-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-170720T0100Z/
Jackson IA-Dubuque IA-Jones IA-Delaware IA-
733 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR JACKSON...SOUTHERN DUBUQUE...JONES AND SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE
COUNTIES...

At 733 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near La Motte to near Canton to 6 miles north of
Center Junction, moving south at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Dubuque, Maquoketa, Monticello, Cascade, Epworth, Farley, Peosta,
Olin, Wyoming, Oxford Junction, Andrew, Worthington, La Motte,
Onslow, Monmouth, Bernard, Center Junction, Zwingle, Nashville and
Fulton.

If you are at Monticello Fairgrounds you should seek safe shelter
immediately!

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4249 9067 4247 9065 4245 9061 4203 9043
      4203 9090 4196 9090 4195 9097 4198 9123
      4238 9121 4245 9114 4246 9084
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 353DEG 26KT 4224 9058 4222 9092 4221 9106 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

098 
WWUS53 KDVN 200040
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
740 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

IAC055-200050-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-170720T0100Z/
Delaware IA-
740 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN DELAWARE COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4247 9073 4247 9065 4245 9061 4203 9043
      4203 9090 4198 9091 4197 9104 4199 9116
      4221 9113 4238 9109 4243 9087
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 355DEG 31KT 4218 9057 4216 9091 4215 9105 

$$

IAC061-097-105-200100-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-170720T0100Z/
Jackson IA-Dubuque IA-Jones IA-
740 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR JACKSON...SOUTHERN DUBUQUE AND EASTERN JONES COUNTIES...

At 740 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Andrew to Canton to near Center Junction, moving
south at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Dubuque, Maquoketa, Cascade, Olin, Wyoming, Oxford Junction, Andrew,
La Motte, Onslow, Monmouth, Bernard, Center Junction, Zwingle,
Fulton, Hurstville, Nashville, Canton, Baldwin, Emeline and Otter
Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4247 9073 4247 9065 4245 9061 4203 9043
      4203 9090 4198 9091 4197 9104 4199 9116
      4221 9113 4238 9109 4243 9087
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 355DEG 31KT 4218 9057 4216 9091 4215 9105 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

033 
WWUS53 KDVN 200050
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
750 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

IAC061-097-105-200100-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0155.000000T0000Z-170720T0100Z/
Jackson IA-Dubuque IA-Jones IA-
750 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JACKSON...SOUTHERN DUBUQUE AND
EASTERN JONES COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened Therefore, the 
warning will be allowed to expire. However gusty winds and heavy 
rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
northeastern and east central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4247 9073 4247 9065 4245 9061 4203 9043
      4203 9090 4198 9091 4197 9104 4199 9116
      4221 9113 4238 9109 4243 9087
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 355DEG 31KT 4209 9056 4207 9090 4206 9104 

$$

ERVIN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
641 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This afternoon temperatures ranged across the area from the upper
80s to the mid 90s.  This resulted in heat indices ranging from near
100 to 110 across the area.  A warm front extended across the area
and aided in pooling low level moisture across the area.  To the NNW
a thunderstorm complex was slowly moving east southeast.  This
complex is expected to be the main forecast concern in the short
term.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Next 12 to 18 hours are forecast to be active with a couple rounds
of thunderstorms, some of which could be severe.

Main forecast concern in the short term are the chances for
thunderstorms this afternoon and overnight across the area.  The
northern CWA is under an enhanced risk for severe weather.  The
ongoing thunderstorm complex has accelerated with time and is
currently rooted in the boundary layer.  The overall gradient in
CAPE and cap suggests that these storms will eventually turn south
and into our area late this afternoon.  WPC QPF depicts this quite
well.  The CAMs have been slow to catch onto this trend, but appears
to be trending that way as well.  As these storms approach the area,
an upper level vort max is expected to accompany this storm.  This
wave will increase deep layer shear and set the stage for severe
weather.  Damaging winds and heavy rain will be the main threat for
the area.  Low level shear is expected to increase tonight and could
lend itself to a tornado threat across the area.

Another wave is expected to initiate thunderstorms across the Dakotas
this afternoon and evening.  As these storms grow upscale they are
expected to track ese as well.  These storms could affect the area
near sunrise and could pose a severe wind, heavy rain and tornado
threat.

Thursday, the warm front is expected to remain across the area.
Showers and storms could be ongoing at the beginning of the day. Any
cloud cover from these storms could affect temperatures across the
area tomorrow.  This could also affect overall heat index values
tomorrow.  Regardless, it will be hot and humid across the area.
With the warm front across the area there is a chance for afternoon
thunderstorms. At this time, it appears that the limiting factor to
any thunderstorms would be a midlevel capping inversion in place.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

Thursday Night through Saturday

Heat Headlines:

Expanded Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisory further north
approximately a tier of counties. Current sfc dewpoints are in
the lower to middle 70s across E Iowa/NW Illinois and could
occasionally reach the upper 70s through this week, which will
push afternoon heat indices over 100 F.

The Excessive Heat Warning now also includes Iowa City and the
Quad Cities Metro to name a few of the most populated areas. For
counties in the warning, we are either anticipating 4-5
days of peak heat indices of +100 F, or 2-3 consecutive days of
near or over 105 F. It's the long duration that increases the
susceptibility to heat related illnesses for people working or
spending time outside, or without access to air conditioning. The
cumulative effects of the heat begin to wear on the body.

The northern tier of the Heat Advisory (not including Bureau or
Putnam Counties) is set to expire Friday evening due to lower
confidence on upper 90s or near 100 F heat indices on Saturday as
a front begins working southward through E Iowa/NW Illinois. If
the forecast or conditions change, the advisory could simply be
extended.

Thunderstorm Chances:

No significant changes to the extended forecast regarding threat
for storms. E Iowa/NW Illinois is situated along the edge of the
capping inversion aloft that inhibits convective development, and
near the favorable 850mb baroclinic zone of upper teens to lower
20s (Celsius) for occasional rounds of mesoscale convective
systems. We continue to forecast a tight NE to SW PoP gradient
from 40-60% across the far N/NE to only 20% over the
south/southwest. However, the final track of these storm clusters
will depend on where convection forms on previous days, because
they will layout a low-level convergent boundary in their wake. It
is too early to know exactly where the sfc boundary will be
located from Thursday night through Saturday. As mentioned, the
best chances for storms are north of I-80, probably Friday and
Friday night.

High instability with +4000 J/kg MUCAPE and deep layer shear over
35 kts are supportive of a damaging wind threat, especially from
organized bowing structures - if they form. Additionally, high
PWATs near 2.00-2.25 inches translates to torrential rainfall
potential with 2-3 inches/hr possible and a risk for flash
flooding within the heaviest cores. Uttech

Sunday through Wednesday

ECMWF/GFS still similar in bringing a cold front across the CWA
on Saturday night and Sunday, accompanied by a slight chance for
showers or thunderstorms along and south of I-80. In the wake of
the front, much cooler temperatures and much less humidity will be
a welcomed relief early next week. The consensus model has highs
in the upper 70s far north to mid 80s south with lows in the mid
50s to lower 60s. Haase

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

High impact thunderstorm event ongoing for DBQ airport may evolve
south into CID and MLI later this evening as winds in excess of 50
kts. These storms will affect the area through the evening. There
is another chance for storms late tonight, however confidence is
low, so will leave those out of the TAFs. Otherwise expect VFR
conditions and winds to shift to southwest to west later in the
period.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Benton-Clinton-Jones-
     Linn.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Cedar-Des
     Moines-Henry IA-Iowa-Jefferson-Johnson-Keokuk-Lee-Louisa-
     Muscatine-Scott-Van Buren-Washington.

IL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Friday for Whiteside.

     Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Hancock-
     Henderson-Henry IL-McDonough-Mercer-Rock Island-Warren.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Bureau-Putnam.

MO...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT Saturday for Clark-
     Scotland.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Gibbs
SHORT TERM...Gibbs
LONG TERM...Uttech/Haase
AVIATION...Gibbs

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
113 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-201815-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
113 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue with heat index
readings as high as 100 to 105. Heat advisories and heat warnings
are in effect for portions of the outlook area beginning this
afternoon.

Thunderstorms are forecast late this afternoon and overnight. Two
rounds are forecast. One for later this afternoon into the evening
and then again late tonight. Some of these storms could become
severe with damaging winds and heavy rains being the main threat.
There is also a low chance for tornadoes, however confidence is
low that this will occur.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Thursday through Saturday...several rounds of thunderstorm complexes
will push across portions of the outlook area, mainly along and
north of Interstate 80. There is the potential for these storms to
be severe with damaging winds and large hail. Torrential rainfall is
likely with several inches of rain possible in a short time. This
could lead to localized flash flooding. However, confidence is low
on the timing and exact location of the thunderstorm complexes.

Hot and humid conditions can be expected through Saturday. The
hotter temperatures should generally occur near and south of
Interstate 80. Temperatures are expected to push well into the 90s
with dewpoints well into the 70s to around 80. This will soar heat
index values to 100 to 106 almost every afternoon through Saturday.
But cloud cover and storm outflow may bring temporary cool downs to
the ambient temperatures, especially north of Interstate 80.

An Excessive Heat Warning is in effect through Saturday for areas
generally near and south of a line from Sigourney Iowa, to Wapello
and Aledo Illinois. A Heat Advisory is in effect through Saturday
generally for the counties along the Interstate 80 corridor.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and overnight
across east central Iowa and northwest Illinois.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
209 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

IAZ040>042-054-ILZ001-007-200000-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Jackson-Jo Daviess-Carroll-
Including the cities of Independence, Manchester, Dubuque,
Maquoketa, Galena, and Mount Carroll
209 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2017

...Very Humid into this Evening...

High temperatures in the upper 80s combined with dewpoints in the
middle 70s will lead to peak heat indices between 95 and 100
degrees into the early evening hours.

If spending time outside today, be sure to drink plenty of water
and take breaks in the shade. Also, never leave a child or pet
unattended in a vehicle.

Uttech