Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Quad Cities, IA

373 
WWUS53 KDVN 120603
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
103 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

ILC015-085-177-IAC097-120700-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-170712T0700Z/
Jo Daviess IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-Jackson IA-
103 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR JO DAVIESS...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...WESTERN STEPHENSON AND
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 103 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Galena, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Law enforcement and spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Galena, Lena, Bellevue, Stockton, Warren, Hanover, Elizabeth,
Woodbine, Scales Mound, Apple River, Menominee, Council Hill, St.
Donatus, Nora, Schapville, Massbach, Loran, Guilford, Kent and Rice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread 
wind damage across western Jo Daviess county. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4213 8985 4219 9051 4238 9056 4238 9048
      4242 9056 4251 9059 4251 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0603Z 282DEG 18KT 4241 9046 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

256 
WWUS53 KDVN 120614
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
114 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

ILC015-085-177-IAC097-120700-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-170712T0700Z/
Jo Daviess IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-Jackson IA-
114 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR JO DAVIESS...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...WESTERN STEPHENSON AND
NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 113 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Galena, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Law enforcement. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Galena, Lena, Bellevue, Stockton, Warren, Hanover, Elizabeth,
Woodbine, Scales Mound, Apple River, Menominee, Council Hill, St.
Donatus, Nora, Schapville, Massbach, Loran, Guilford, Kent and Rice.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread 
wind damage across western Jo Daviess county. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4213 8985 4219 9051 4238 9056 4238 9048
      4242 9056 4251 9059 4251 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 284DEG 27KT 4240 9036 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

030 
WWUS53 KDVN 120624
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
124 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

ILC015-085-177-IAC097-120700-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-170712T0700Z/
Jo Daviess IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-Jackson IA-
124 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR JO DAVIESS...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL...WESTERN STEPHENSON AND
CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES...

At 124 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Schapville, or
7 miles east of Galena, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Law enforcement. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Galena, Lena, Bellevue, Stockton, Warren, Hanover, Elizabeth,
Woodbine, Scales Mound, Apple River, Council Hill, Nora, Schapville,
Massbach, Loran, Guilford, Kent, Rice, Whitton and North Hanover.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm is producing widespread 
wind damage across western Jo Daviess County. SEEK SHELTER NOW 
inside a sturdy structure and stay away from windows.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4213 8985 4219 9051 4233 9049 4238 9048
      4246 9046 4251 9041 4251 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0624Z 282DEG 18KT 4239 9029 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

659 
WWUS53 KDVN 120631
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
131 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

IAC097-120640-
/O.CAN.KDVN.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-170712T0700Z/
Jackson IA-
131 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has 
moved out of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been
cancelled.

LAT...LON 4213 8985 4219 9031 4232 9039 4237 9044
      4251 9035 4250 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0630Z 282DEG 18KT 4238 9025 

$$

ILC015-085-177-120700-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-170712T0700Z/
Jo Daviess IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-
131 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR JO DAVIESS...NORTHWESTERN CARROLL AND WESTERN STEPHENSON
COUNTIES...

At 130 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Schapville, or
9 miles east of Galena, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Galena, Lena, Stockton, Warren, Hanover, Elizabeth, Woodbine, Scales
Mound, Apple River, Council Hill, Nora, Schapville, Massbach, Loran,
Guilford, Kent, Rice, Whitton, North Hanover and Elizabeth
Fairgrounds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4213 8985 4219 9031 4232 9039 4237 9044
      4251 9035 4250 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0630Z 282DEG 18KT 4238 9025 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

570 
WWUS53 KDVN 120637
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
137 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

ILC015-085-177-120700-
/O.CON.KDVN.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-170712T0700Z/
Jo Daviess IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-
137 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR JO DAVIESS...NORTH CENTRAL CARROLL AND WESTERN STEPHENSON
COUNTIES...

At 137 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Elizabeth, or
12 miles southeast of Galena, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Lena, Stockton, Warren, Hanover, Elizabeth, Woodbine, Scales Mound,
Apple River, Nora, Schapville, Massbach, Loran, Guilford, Kent, North
Hanover, Elizabeth Fairgrounds, Lake Le-Aqua-
na State Park, Apple River Canyon State Park, Stockton Airport and
Elmoville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4213 8985 4221 9029 4228 9035 4238 9035
      4251 9025 4250 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0637Z 284DEG 18KT 4233 9022 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ERVIN

765 
WWUS53 KDVN 120653
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
153 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

ILC015-085-177-120703-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-170712T0700Z/
Jo Daviess IL-Carroll IL-Stephenson IL-
153 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR JO DAVIESS...NORTH CENTRAL
CARROLL AND WESTERN STEPHENSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 200 AM CDT...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy 
rain is still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4213 8985 4221 9029 4228 9035 4238 9035
      4251 9025 4250 8982
TIME...MOT...LOC 0653Z 282DEG 18KT 4231 9012 

$$

ERVIN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1145 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

18Z surface data has a stationary front running from the south shore
of Lake Michigan into northern Iowa and then into southwest
Minnesota. Dew points were in the 70s south of the front with 60s
north of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

There are several concerns over the next 36 hours. These concerns
are heavy rain risk, severe risk, and heat.

Based on the 18z sounding, the atmosphere looks capped through
sunset south of the front. The exception is the far north where some
showers and possibly a few thunderstorms will be seen. The heat
advisory will continue until 8 PM.

Heavy rain concern. The question tonight becomes where and where
does the organized thunderstorm complex develop. The 850 and 700 mb
temperatures increasing across the area tonight which could push the
organized convection further north. However, the cloud band across
Iowa is troubling in that the effective boundary appears to be
further south than what the models suggest.

If the effective boundary is further south, then the organized
thunderstorm complex would be over the area instead of Wisconsin.
Trends with the RAP do show the backward/forward Corfidi vectors
becoming perpendicular and then opposing each other prior to sunrise
across the area. Convergence aloft then shifts to the south over the
area prior to sunrise Wednesday.

Thus the scenario that is being suggested is a heavy rain event for
the area. Given the high PWATs feeding into the area and a potential
for storms to move repeatedly across the same area, flash flooding
would be a concern.

Unfortunately, the overall situation becomes a met watch. Once
individual storms begin developing this evening, the overall risk
area will become known and changes to the forecast can be made.

So, the forecast as of now has little if any rain during the evening
hours except in the highway 20 corridor. After midnight, slight
chance to chance pops across the northern half of the area.

Severe concern. Given the energy potential built up into the
atmosphere, individual storms could be severe tonight before growing
upscale into a heavy rain thunderstorm complex.

Heat concern. Depending upon how the nocturnal convection
develops/evolves tonight will dictate how hot it will get on
Wednesday. IF an organized thunderstorm complex occurs tonight that
develops a strong pool of cool air, then although very humid on
Wednesday, temperatures would likely remain in the 80s. If no
organized thunderstorm complex occurs across the area tonight, then
temperatures will get into the 90s Wednesday with heat index
readings over 100.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Active period of weather to continue through the beginning of the
long term period.  Later in the week, weather should begin to calm
and temperatures should be lower, before a ridge moves into the area
for later in the week and the return to warm weather occurs.

Wednesday night, convection will either likely be ongoing at 00z or
shortly there after as a cold front is moving south through the
area. The coverage of storms will likely be greatest in the 03z -
09z time frame as they slowly drift south.  The question of storm
severity is based on two unknowns at this time.  1.) Overnight
convection tonight and into tomorrow and 2.) What that could leave
us.  The possibility of overnight convection across our area could
change the position of boundaries for tomorrow.  Also MCV
development could further complicate the forecast.  Overall shear is
weak until a weak H5 wave will move into the area overnight
Wednesday. Whether or not this wave leads to increased severe
weather is at question due to the timing of the convection.  The
best threat for severe weather would be if a MCV were to be across
the area during the day on Wednesday, increasing overall shear for
the evening convection.  Currently think, hydro issues may be the
main threat.  The slow moving nature of the system, along with
corfidi vectors favoring training of thunderstorms, PWATs that are
in excess of 2 inches, and a H85 jet that is parallel to the storms,
flash flooding could become a larger threat than any severe weather.
 Flash flood watches may be needed later, especially once tonights
convection is resolved.

After this, the flow turns more northerly as drier air moves into
the area for this weekend.  A wave in this flow will cause more
moist air to return for Saturday before drier air moves in once
again.  Temperatures should be cooler than earlier this week, before
the warm dome creeps back in next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

Mostly VFR conditions with episodes of IFR/MVFR conditions from thunderstorms
expected through the period. The greatest risks will be at DBQ/CID terminals.
Winds will be mainly southerly, except gusty in storms.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...Gibbs
AVIATION...Nichols

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
341 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-122045-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
341 PM CDT Tue Jul 11 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Thunderstorms will be possible tonight after sunset.

Individual storms will have a potential for producing damaging
winds and locally heavy rainfall. Later tonight, the individual
storms are expected to combine into an organized thunderstorm
complex.

Once the organized thunderstorm complex develops, heavy rain will
be possible along with the risk of flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

Additional rounds of thunderstorms will occur Wednesday through
Thursday across portions of the Outlook Area. Strong to severe
storms are possible Wednesday and Wednesday night, with the
primary threats being damaging winds and flooding rains. The
thunderstorms are then expected to settle south along the Iowa-
Missouri border region into west central Illinois on Thursday. The
severe weather potential for Thursday remains uncertain at this
time.

Hot and humid weather will continue on Wednesday, with afternoon
and early evening heat index readings of 95 to 105 degrees
possible. But Wednesday will also be another day where
thunderstorms and clouds may keep ambient temperatures cooler
than currently expected in some locations.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible tonight. Rainfall reports of over
an inch will be appreciated.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1101 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1057 PM     HAIL             1 E HOLY CROSS          42.60N 90.98W
07/11/2017  M1.25 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GROSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1235 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     TSTM WND DMG     DUBUQUE                 42.50N 90.69W
07/12/2017                   DUBUQUE            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE CITY FROM
            HIGH WINDS.

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     TSTM WND GST     DUBUQUE                 42.50N 90.69W
07/12/2017  E60 MPH          DUBUQUE            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF 50 TO 60+ MPH WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
            CITY.

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1234 AM     HAIL             DUBUQUE                 42.50N 90.69W
07/12/2017  E1.00 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL
            THROUGHOUT THE CITY.

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1246 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1241 AM     TSTM WND GST     DUBUQUE REGIONAL AIRPOR 42.40N 90.72W
07/12/2017  M75 MPH          DUBUQUE            IA   ASOS

            ASOS MEASURED WIND GUST OF 75 MPH.

&&

BILLN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1249 AM CDT WED JUL 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ASBURY                  42.51N 90.76W
07/12/2017                   DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            4 INCH DIAMETER BRANCHES DOWN JUST WEST OF ASBURY.

1230 AM     HEAVY RAIN       ASBURY                  42.51N 90.76W
07/12/2017  M4.00 INCH       DUBUQUE            IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL SO FAR THIS EVENING AND
            STILL RAINING HARD AT TIME OF REPORT. LOCAL DRAINAGE
            DITCHES REPORTED FULL AND FLOWING.

&&