Severe Thunderstorm Warning 144, NWS Quad Cities, IA

070 
WWUS53 KDVN 110151
SVSDVN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
851 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

ILC109-110201-
/O.EXP.KDVN.SV.W.0144.000000T0000Z-170711T0200Z/
McDonough IL-
851 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MCDONOUGH COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
west central Illinois.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
the Quad Cities.

LAT...LON 4055 9060 4060 9057 4059 9045 4046 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 290DEG 10KT 4051 9039 

$$

Gibbs

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
800 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 754 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Focus of marginal severe threat this evening has shifted far south
and possibly far east into Bureau/Putnam counties. Marginally
severe hail, isolated downburst winds and heavy rain are main
issues. Had a funnel cloud and possible brief tornado during
Roseville earlier, so cannot completely discount that threat as
well.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Heat Advisory in effect in the counties approximately to the south
of a Cedar Rapids to Quad Cities line through 7 PM this evening.
After widespread rainfall last night, the atmosphere has become very
humid with dewpoints rising into the middle to upper 70s. Expect
peak heat indices between the upper 90s to lower 100s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Late this Afternoon through Tonight

Very humid conditions with dewpoints in the mid and even upper 70s
at some locations will be the main story. Threat for convection is
fairly low but continued the lower 20-30% PoPs roughly in the
counties along and south of I-80 to account for isolated activity.
However, latest thinking is that most locations will stay dry
overnight due to absence of low-level jet impinging into E Iowa/NW
Illinois.

Visible satellite shows a low-level cyclonic circulation within the
CU field moving into the NW forecast area. It appears the mid/upper
level cirrus streaming over the top are inhibiting more
substantial CU development. However, a few storms may form
downstream of this circulation in a localized zone of enhanced
ascent and low-level convergence. The past several runs of the
HRRR has developed a few storms mostly E/NE of the Quad Cities.
The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe storms
across Bureau and Putnam Counties which is in line with this
thinking. If a few storms form, the primary threats would be
damaging winds and large hail.

Tuesday

Shortwave or mid-level vorticity max currently analyzed over the
Central Rockies, is forecast to traverse the Plains and reach the
Upper Mississippi Valley by the late morning or early afternoon on
Tuesday. This is probably our next decent chance for scattered
showers and storms. It's a return flow setup - there is a signal
for lower tropospheric isentropic lift and WAA, which could kick
off a broken band of convection that moves to the ENE. Models
indicate enough instability and shear for a few strong storms, but
do not see much of a potential for organized severe weather
through Tuesday afternoon. In fact, models are in pretty good
agreement breaking out the strongest convection to the north
across Minnesota and Wisconsin later Tuesday into Tuesday night on
the nose of the 850mb jet.

Heat Indices:

The highest dewpoints, in the mid 70s, are forecast to reside in the
counties along and south of highway 34 west of Galesburg, Illinois
for Tuesday afternoon. In this area, peak heat indices are forecast
in the upper 90s to around 100 F. If skies clear out for several
hours, it is likely values reach heat advisory criteria (~100 F).
Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

A hot and humid air mas will continue to remain in place across
the region through the day Thursday. Wednesday looks to be the
hottest day of the period, as high temperatures will climb into
the upper 80s across the north, the middle 90s along and south of
Interstate 80. With forecast dewpoints expected to reach the lower
to middle 70s, this will produce afternoon humidity in the upper
50s and lower 60s, allowing heat index values to climb into the
upper 90s to lower 100s. A heat advisory is possible depending on
convective trends.

A better chance for showers and thunderstorms will come late
Wednesday through Thursday as an upper level shortwave and cool
front moves the middle Mississippi River Valley. Should storms
develop, an extremely moist atmosphere will allow for heavy
rainfall leading to localized flash flooding as the primary
threat. Other severe weather threats are low confidence at this
time.

Behind this front, weak high pressure will build south over Great
Lakes for Friday and Saturday, providing a temporary break from
the precipitation and higher humidity. High temperatures for
Friday are expected to climb into the lower and middle 80s, before
a return to the 90s for the weekend.

Past Sunday, models begin to diverge on possible solutions, with a
predominantly dry and high pressure filled ECMWF vs. a more potent
and shortwave aggressive GFS. Temperatures for the period are
forecast to remain in the middle to upper 80s, with dewpoints in the
lower to middle 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday Evening)
ISSUED AT 754 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

Evening storms have pushed south of KBRL, so low chances of
additional storms impacting TAF sites through the overnight. Fog
development is expected overnight with lingering low level
moisture and slackening winds, especially at KDBQ/KCID, where at
least 1-2SM visibilities are possible along with low stratus. A
warm front will lift north into the area Tuesday, with the best
chance of additional storms at KBRL/KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RP Kinney
SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...Speck
AVIATION...RP Kinney

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
329 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-112030-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
329 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Peak heat indices will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s into
early this evening south of a Cedar Rapids to Quad Cities line.

Isolated thunderstorms may form early this evening along and east
of the Mississippi River. A few strong or severe storms are
possible. The primary risks are damaging winds and large hail.
However, storm coverage should remain low, so most areas will
probably stay dry into tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

Additional thunderstorms are expected Tuesday through Thursday.
At this time, there is a low risk for severe thunderstorms, as
well as heavy rainfall through Wednesday night. Hot and humid
weather will continue through Wednesday, with afternoon and early
evening heat index readings of 95 to 105 possible.

Thunderstorms are possible Friday and Saturday. It is too early to
determine the threat for severe weather at this time for the late
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotter activation may be needed late this afternoon and
this evening.

Uttech/Ervin

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
631 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             2 NE COLUSA             40.59N 91.14W
07/10/2017  M0.75 INCH       HANCOCK            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
718 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             1 N FORT MADISON        40.63N 91.35W
07/10/2017  M0.25 INCH       LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PETERS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
726 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 SE ROSEVILLE          40.68N 90.60W
07/10/2017                   WARREN             IL   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

RP KINNEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
728 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     HAIL             1 NE FORT MADISON       40.64N 91.33W
07/10/2017  M0.25 INCH       LEE                IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PETERS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
741 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

ILC011-155-110145-
Putnam-Bureau-
741 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL PUTNAM AND CENTRAL
BUREAU COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 741 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Buda, or 9
miles west of Princeton, moving southeast at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Princeton, Hennepin, DePue, Granville, Wyanet, Sheffield, Tiskilwa,
Buda, Bureau Junction, Putnam, Mark, Neponset, Manlius, Mineral,
Milo, New Bedford, Providence, Coal Hollow, Lake Thunderbird and
Florid.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in Illinois between mile markers 36 and 58.
 Interstate 180 between mile markers 1 and 11.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4115 8934 4115 8963 4123 8964 4123 8974
      4134 8986 4143 8986 4153 8974 4130 8919
TIME...MOT...LOC 0041Z 310DEG 19KT 4134 8965

RP KINNEY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
753 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

ILC109-187-110200-
Warren-McDonough-
753 PM CDT MON JUL 10 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN WARREN AND
NORTHEASTERN MCDONOUGH COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM CDT...

At 753 PM CDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Prairie City,
or 12 miles northeast of Macomb, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Macomb, Bushnell, Avon, Good Hope, Prairie City, Bardolph, Western
Illinois University, Adair, Little Swan Lake, New Philadelphia,
Walnut Grove, Macomb Municipal Airport, Scottsburg, Spring Lake, Swan
Creek, Youngstown and Prairie City Airport.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4047 9073 4072 9070 4071 9044 4039 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0053Z 281DEG 17KT 4061 9052

RP KINNEY