Gale Warning 28, NWS Detroit, MI

460 
WHUS73 KDTX 150157
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
957 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...GALES EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.WARM FRONT WILL BE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES 
TONIGHT, AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON 
TOMORROW. GALES REMAIN LIKELY TOMORROW AS A ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT 
PASSES THROUGH DURING THE MID DAY, WITH A BRIEF GUST TO STORM FORCE 
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON. ANY 
THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND 
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNOTS. NORTHWEST GALES SUNDAY EVENING WILL 
DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, WITH WINDS DROPPING INTO THE 5 TO 
15 KNOT RANGE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE 
ARRIVES. HOWEVER, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN, 
WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE OVER LAKE HURON MONDAY NIGHT 
INTO TUESDAY.

LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-151400-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0028.171015T1200Z-171016T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
957 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 47 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 15 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 22 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-LEZ444-151400-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0028.171015T1200Z-171016T0000Z/
LAKE ST CLAIR-
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
957 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 29 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 38 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

SC

631 
WHUS73 KDTX 150829
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
429 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...WEST GALES DEVELOPING TODAY...

.A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE 
HURON TODAY, SWINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REST OF THE LOCAL 
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TODAY, SOUTHWEST 
WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP TO GALE FORCE ACROSS LAKE HURON, LAKE 
ST. CLAIR, AND THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE THIS MORNING BEFORE 
SWINGING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED GALE FORCE WINDS 
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON, WITH 
FREQUENT HIGH-END GALE GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REST OF THE WATERS. 
SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIR SHOULD LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL FOR A ROGUE 
STORM GUST OVER THE LAKE HURON OPEN WATERS. IN RESPONSE TO THE 
FRESH, STRONG WINDS TODAY, WAVES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 15 FEET ON 
LAKE HURON WITH PEAK WAVE HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 FEET. ON LAKE ST. 
CLAIR AND THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE, WAVES WILL BUILD TO 
AROUND 5 FEET. THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO LOW 
WATER LEVELS TODAY FOR THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE ERIE.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE, LINGERING LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR 
WATERSPOUTS OVER THE LAKE HURON WATERS TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY.

WINDS AND WAVES WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BRIEFLY ON MONDAY AS HIGH 
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST 
IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH, BUT BRIEFLY RAMP UP ONCE AGAIN DUE TO A 
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY WELL TO THE 
NORTH, WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE OVER LAKE HURON MONDAY 
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

LHZ361-421-422-152030-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0028.171015T1200Z-171016T0000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
429 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

THE GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 12 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 17 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ444-152030-
/O.NEW.KDTX.LO.Y.0001.171015T1200Z-171016T0300Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0028.171015T1200Z-171016T0000Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
429 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...
...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A LOW
WATER ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
EDT THIS EVENING. 

* EXPECT WATER LEVELS TO DROP 6 INCHES BELOW LOW WATER DATUM OR 48
  INCHES BELOW CURRENT WATER LEVELS BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOW WATER
  CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT
  THIS EVENING.

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 5 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 7 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 11 AM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 12 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464-152030-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0028.171015T1200Z-171016T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
429 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM
EDT MONDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 15 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 22 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-152030-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0028.171015T1200Z-171016T0000Z/
LAKE ST CLAIR-
429 AM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM
EDT THIS EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

CB

622 
WHUS73 KDTX 151938
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
338 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...GALES TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE NOW EXITING NORTHERN LAKE HURON LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON. THIS LOW HAS NOT DEEPENED AS RAPIDLY AS EXPECTED, AND 
THUS WINDS LOOK TO BE COMING UP ON THE LOWER END OF THE FORECASTED 
RANGE. NONE-LESS, WILL BE MAINTAINING THE GALE WARNING HEADLINES, 
ALL MARINE AREAS, BUT WINDS CERTAINLY APPEAR MARGINAL ALONG THE 
NEARSHORE WATERS, AND MAY NOT GET THE 3 HRS OR MORE OF CONSECUTIVE 
GALES. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING, ALLOWING FOR 
COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, STILL 
APPEARS THERE IS A LOW RISK OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE 
HURON AS DOMINANT LAKE BAND SETS UP. 

LEZ444-160300-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171016T0000Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-171016T0300Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
338 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 27 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 4 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 5 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

* WATER LEVELS...GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING MAY CAUSE
  WATER LEVELS TO DROP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE CRITICAL MARK FOR
  SAFE NAVIGATION.

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

LHZ362-363-441>443-462>464-160900-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171016T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-
HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
338 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 32 KNOTS FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 41 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 13 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 19 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ361-421-422-160000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171016T0000Z/
LAKE HURON FROM 5NM EAST OF MACKINAC BRIDGE TO PRESQUE ISLE LT
BEYOND 5 NM OFF SHORE-
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-INNER SAGINAW BAY SW OF POINT AU GRES TO BAY PORT MI-
338 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 31 KNOTS FROM THE WEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 41 KNOTS. 
  THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 9 FEET WITH A 
  POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 13 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 3 PM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 7 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LCZ460-160000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171016T0000Z/
LAKE ST CLAIR-
338 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE GALE WARNING...EXPECT SUSTAINED 
  WINDS UP TO 23 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS UP TO 34 
  KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 3 FEET 
  WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 4 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 5 PM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 4 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

DG

297 
WHUS73 KDTX 160143
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
943 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT...

.THE DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION
WILL LEAD TO A STEADY DROP IN WINDS TONIGHT.

LHZ441>443-161000-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171016T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0066.171016T0143Z-171016T1000Z/
PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH MI-HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC MI-
PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON MI-
943 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 26 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 33 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 10 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 14 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LHZ362-363-462>464-160245-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-171016T0900Z/
LAKE HURON FROM PRESQUE ISLE LIGHT TO STURGEON POINT MI BEYOND
5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM STURGEON POINT TO ALABASTER MI BEYOND 5NM OFF
SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT AUSTIN TO HARBOR BEACH BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM HARBOR BEACH TO PORT SANILAC BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
LAKE HURON FROM PORT SANILAC TO PORT HURON BEYOND 5NM OFF SHORE-
943 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS CANCELLED THE
GALE WARNING. 

$$

LHZ421-161000-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0066.171016T0143Z-171016T1000Z/
OUTER SAGINAW BAY SW OF ALABASTER TO PORT AUSTIN MI TO INNER
SAGINAW BAY-
943 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY. 

* WIND AND WAVES: DURING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...EXPECT 
  SUSTAINED WINDS UP TO 22 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS 
  UP TO 28 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL 
  BE 8 FEET WITH A POTENTIAL MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF 11 FEET. 

* TIMING: THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EDT SUNDAY 
  WITH THE LARGEST WAVES EXPECTED AROUND 9 PM EDT SUNDAY. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

LEZ444-160800-
/O.EXT.KDTX.LO.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-171016T0800Z/
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE FROM DETROIT RIVER TO NORTH CAPE MI-
943 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

...LOW WATER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE LOW WATER ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY. 

* WATER LEVELS TO DROPPED TO 29 INCHES BELOW LOW WATER DATUM
  EARLIER THIS EVENING. THEY WILL SLOWLY RISE DURING THE NIGHT AS
  WINDS DECREASE, WITH LOW WATER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO END BY 4
  AM. 

REFER TO THE LATEST MARINE FORECASTS FOR GREATER DETAIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A LOW WATER ADVISORY MEANS WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW AVERAGE. MARINERS SHOULD USE EXTREME CAUTION
AND TRANSIT AT THE SLOWEST SAFE NAVIGABLE SPEED TO MINIMIZE
IMPACT.

&&

$$

SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1148 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.AVIATION...

Persistent forcing along a low to mid level frontal boundary will
support occasional showers through the TAF period from PTK
northward. Moisture advection will lead to lowering ceiling heights
during the course of the morning into Sat afternoon. Conditions are
likely to drop to IFR at MBS by late morning which will be farther
into the cooler air. Weak elevated instability may support some
thunderstorm activity, the chances of which are too low to include
in the terminals attm.

For DTW...The frontal forcing will largely remain north of metro
tonight through much of the day Saturday. This will hold most of the
showers and lower clouds north of the airport. Several model
solutions do however suggest some possible higher based light
showers from time to time from increasing mid level moisture.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low in ceilings below 5000 ft this morning and afternoon. Moderate
  Saturday night.

* Low in thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. Moderate late
  Saturday night.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 857 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

UPDATE...

Rain now advancing across the western Great Lakes is focussed along
the mid troposheric frontal boundary. This boundary is still expected
to settle across the northern half of the forecast area overnight.
Persistent frontogenetical forcing will strengthen the frontal
circulation, with the resulting isentropic ascent supporting fairly
widespread showers generally along/north of the I-69 corridor. While
an influx of mid level moisture may support some sporadic shower
activity across metro Detroit/Ann Arbor and points south, the better
forcing will remain north of this region. A forecast update will be
issued simply to graduate the precip chances a little more across the
forecast area (reduce pops to chance from Detroit city south and
nudge them upward slightly across the Tri Cities).

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 344 PM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

DISCUSSION...

Digging shortwave energy into the Intermountain West and a 594dm
subtropical high pressure anchored over the Gulf Coast is
responsible for a very tight sw-ne oriented mass gradient over the
central CONUS and Great Lakes. Baroclinic zone over the Upper MS
Valley is undergoing a pronounced strengthening phase in response to
the rapidly strengthening 140-150kt upper jet. Showers have
developed within a corridor of enhanced 298/300k fgen. This activity
will propagate east through the evening and may expand southward as
moist isentropic ascent takes shape south of the front, though any
noteworthy QPF will remain tied to the narrow fgen band.

High uncertainty regarding placement and evolution of the resident
baroclinic zone through the day Saturday. Higher resolution models,
excepting the struggling NAM12, suggest southward displacement
perhaps in response to diabatic cooling associated with convection.
This is also noted in the GEM and 12Z ECMWF which have shifted the
surface over Ontario slightly south which each run. Given both the
synoptic scale signal by the GEM/ECMWF and the CAM runs, made a
decided shift south with the heavy rain axis on Saturday. Strong jet
dynamics and increasing isentropic ascent up the frontal slope will
ensure a strong fgen band capable of producing at least an inch of
rain 12-00z Sat. The forecast has been updated to shift this band to
the I-69 corridor. Cross-sections indicate a fair amount of
conditional instability south of the front, suggestive of a pattern
of showers/tstorms there as warm sector ascent increases through the
day.

As the dominant forcing regime shifts from frontal to synoptic
scale, non-NAM NWP are in strong agreement that a cyclone will
deepen to about 995mb as it lifts from the Quad Cities to Georgian
Bay Saturday night, a slightly flatter look than recent runs. Front
will lift north during this time as the bulk of activity becomes
focused on the surging low-level jet in advance of the front. Stout
southerly flow will keep temperatures elevated in the 60s, in spite
of any rain, through Saturday night. Strong cold fropa will take
place roughly 9-12z Saturday night. Cross-sections indicate a deep
tropospheric front with some density current features near the
surface, ideal for maximizing wind gust potential. Wind within the
unstable nose of the front approach 50 kts suggesting a brief pop of
40-50 kts certainly not out of the question early Sunday morning.

Strong cold advection will cause 850mb temps to plummet from around
15C Sunday morning to -1C Saturday evening. Steep low-level lapse
rates and a strong wind field in the wake of the departing cyclone
will cause temperatures to fall throughout the day, reaching the 40s
by evening. Strong mixing will generate several hours of strong
winds. Whether or not wind advisory criteria is reached depends
entirely on the strength of the low, which is notably flatter than
depicted on previous days. Bumped winds up to just shy of criteria
for most of Sunday. Despite the cold airmass, wind and the potential
for lake effect clouds make frost unlikely Sunday night.

Surface ridging moving in Monday will help keep skies mostly clear
and allow for a chilly Monday morning with lows falling to the upper
30s for most of SE Michigan. Highs will only recover to the mid 50s
for most areas as upper thermal trough moves through the region and
departs by Tuesday. Upper ridging then moves in from the west and
dominates the forecast through the rest of the week.

Warm air advection to move in beginning Tuesday as surface high
pressure sets up over the eastern U.S., leading to sunny skies and
highs rebounding to seasonable values in the mid 60s through the
week. A weak cold front is progged to pass through overnight
Wednesday into Thursday but impacts will likely be limited to just
an increase in cloud cover. Overnight lows through the extended
period will hover in the 40s and highs by Friday will approach 70
degrees.

MARINE...

A frontal boundary will settle southeast late today and tonight,
stalling near Saginaw Bay and central Lake Huron on Saturday. South
to southwest winds will persist south of the boundary, but veer to
the northwest and north over northern Lake Huron. Wind gusts will
remain 20 knots or less into Saturday evening, but increase late
Saturday night into Sunday as low pressure tracks across the area
along this frontal boundary. Showers and thunderstorms will increase
from Saturday into Saturday night as this crosses the central Great
Lakes.

While borderline gale conditions still appear possible within the
southwest flow over Saginaw Bay late Saturday night and early Sunday
morning, stronger northwest gales appear likely on Sunday once the
low passes east and colder air surges into the area. These stronger
winds will spread from northern Lake Huron Sunday morning south
through the remainder of the area Sunday afternoon. Peak wind gusts
of 45 knots appear possible over portions of the Lake Huron open
waters with at least low end gales possible elsewhere. A Gale Watch
will likely be issue in anticipation of these conditions. Wind
conditions will then improve markedly Sunday night as a ridge of
high pressure shifts east into the area.

HYDROLOGY...

A frontal boundary will sag south into the area tonight and stall
near the I-69 corridor on Saturday, becoming the focus for rain
overnight into Saturday morning. Rain will then become increasingly
widespread late Saturday into Saturday night as the front slowly
lifts back to the north with the approach of low pressure from the
west. During this time, embedded thunderstorms will also lead to
locally heavy rainfall.

While models differ somewhat in the north to south orientation of
strong FGEN forcing and the resultant band of heavy rainfall, it
appears increasingly likely that 1 to 2 inches of rain will occur
over parts of the area as precipitable water values increase to 1.50
inches or more. At this time, model consensus leans to areas along
and north of the I-69 corridor with decent rainfall of one half to
one inch expected as far south as M-59 as well. However, a slight
shift to the south is not out of the question given recent trends.
The heavier rainfall will end by early Sunday morning as the low
passes to the east with all rain ending during the day as a cold
front sweeps south of the area.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for
     LHZ362-363-421-422-441>443-462>464.

     Gale Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for LHZ361.

Lake St Clair...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for
     LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday evening for
     LEZ444.

&&

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...JVC/TF
MARINE.......DG
HYDROLOGY....DG

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
443 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-140845-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
443 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The potential for thunderstorms will begin Saturday afternoon and
continue into Sunday morning in advance of a strengthening low
pressure system. West winds of up to 40 mph are expected behind the
cold front on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-140845-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
443 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The potential for thunderstorms will begin Saturday afternoon and
continue into Sunday morning in advance of a strengthening low
pressure system. West winds of up to 40 mph are expected behind the
cold front on Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

CB