Severe Thunderstorm Warning 158, NWS Des Moines, IA

777 
WWUS53 KDMX 160126
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
826 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

IAC039-181-160200-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0158.000000T0000Z-170616T0200Z/
Clarke IA-Warren IA-
826 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES...

At 826 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Lakeside
Casino, or near Osceola, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. 

Locations impacted include...
Osceola, Lakeside Casino, Murray, New Virginia, Woodburn and Murray
Roadside Rest Area.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 28 and 44.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4096 9401 4115 9401 4116 9380 4117 9379
      4121 9362 4094 9358
TIME...MOT...LOC 0126Z 264DEG 30KT 4108 9385 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Ansorge

887 
WWUS53 KDMX 160137
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
837 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

IAC039-181-160200-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0158.000000T0000Z-170616T0200Z/
Clarke IA-Warren IA-
837 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES...

At 837 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Osceola, moving
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail. 

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters. At 8:37pm, a trained spotter on 
         the north side of Osceola reported quarter size hail.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect damage 
         to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. 

Locations impacted include...
Osceola, Lakeside Casino and New Virginia. 

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 33 and 44.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Prepare immediately for large hail and deadly cloud to ground
lightning. Seek shelter inside a well-built structure. Stay away from
windows.

&&

LAT...LON 4102 9388 4116 9389 4116 9380 4117 9379
      4121 9362 4102 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 264DEG 30KT 4109 9372 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

Ansorge

882 
WWUS53 KDMX 160151
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
851 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

IAC039-181-160200-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0158.000000T0000Z-170616T0200Z/
Clarke IA-Warren IA-
851 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 900 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has been replaced with a new 
warning for northeast Clarke County until 9:30pm. 

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central Iowa.

LAT...LON 4102 9388 4116 9389 4116 9380 4117 9379
      4121 9362 4102 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 0150Z 264DEG 30KT 4110 9360 

$$

Ansorge

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
318 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday night/
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

A weak boundary has pushed into north central Iowa this afternoon
and has been the focus for some cumulus development in vicinity of
region of speed convergence. This mixing has dropped dewpoints
into the mid 50s to lower 60s across the state and this has
limited instability overall. A few storms though may develop in
region of weak stability in the vicinity of Waterloo/Cedar Falls.
These storms may have an attendant damaging wind and/or large hail
threat.

A bigger concern for severe weather develops over southwest and
south central Iowa later this evening as the low level jet
intensifies and surges north. This will continue to lift MUCAPES
of 3000-4000 J/kg further north towards Interstate 80. Golfball
sized hail and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph will be possible with
these storms. PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches will lead to
areas with brief heavy rainfall. The storms will begin to push
east of the forecast area after midnight.

A few isolated storms may reach far northwest Iowa Friday morning
though mainly dry weather should prevail through mid afternoon.
The surface warm front should surge back north towards the
Minnesota by Friday afternoon. That said, storms tonight likely
with have a large outflow area that will impact the warm front
advance during the morning but it should recover by the afternoon
as the pressure gradient increases with as low pressure moves into
western Nebraska. Storm initiation is anticipated in vicinity of
the boundary. These storms may initially be discrete then evolve
into an MCS and drive southeast along a strong instability
gradient. As of now, the main focus for these storms will be over
the western half of Iowa. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat though given the amount of instability and deep layer shear
over 40 kts, strong/organized updrafts will bring a large hail
threat especially early. A few tornadoes may also occur. SPC has
upgraded to an enhanced risk for this region. Possible this may
require an additional upgrade to moderate if everything falls into
place.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu
Jun 15 2017

The severe weather threat will continue on Saturday, though
despite better mid level dynamics associated with the approach of
a vigorous shortwave, more uncertainty does exists Saturday.
Several potential scenarios that could play out Saturday. The
first is Friday night storms contaminate the airmass and hold the
warm front further south considering a weaker pressure gradient
will be in place. Second, the airmass destabilizes as the triple
point lifts into central Iowa and thunderstorms fire during the
afternoon as the upper level dynamics arrive and storms quickly
become severe. Third, the overnight MCS from South Dakota arrives
and interacts with a quickly destabilizing air mass over the
northern half of Iowa and storms become severe by late
morning/early afternoon before growing upscale and pushing east
of the warning area. Scenarios two or three are the most likely
and suspect SPC will upgrade the current Day 3 slight risk by
Saturday. Anyone with outdoor activities planned or camping this
weekend should pay special attention to weather forecasts and
warnings through Saturday.

The boundary moves through Saturday night and will bring much
cooler and less volatile weather through much of next week as a
transition to northwest flow occurs. The flow will transition
back to more zonal towards Thursday and will bring a return of
warmer and potentially more active weather.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon/
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Convective trends will be the primary aviation challenge through
the period. Isolated/scattered thunderstorms likely to develop
along a line from near KALO/KDSM late this afternoon then become
more focused southern Iowa including KOTM this evening. Outflow
boundaries and gusty winds will be possible in vicinity of storms.
Late tonight into Friday morning should be mostly quiet with
south to southwest winds at 5 to 15 kt and VFR conditions.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Donavon
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...Donavon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
239 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-161945-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
239 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Thunderstorm chances will return later this afternoon and
tonight. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over
central Iowa with hail and strong, gusty winds the primary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional thunderstorms are forecast at intervals from Friday
through Saturday night. There will be an increased threat of
severe weather at times, in the form of large hail and
particularly damaging winds. The highest severe weather risk will
be across about the southern half of Iowa on Friday night, and
areawide on Saturday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed at times between this evening and Saturday
evening.

Ansorge

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
748 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0733 PM     HAIL             2 SE WATERLOO           42.47N 92.33W
06/15/2017  E1.75 INCH       BLACK HAWK         IA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
757 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0739 PM     HAIL             2 NW EVANSDALE          42.48N 92.30W
06/15/2017  E1.50 INCH       BLACK HAWK         IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO PING PONG BALL SIZED HAIL.

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
758 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 PM     HAIL             5 S SHELL ROCK          42.64N 92.58W
06/15/2017  E1.25 INCH       BUTLER             IA   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
806 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0758 PM     HAIL             2 E JANESVILLE          42.65N 92.42W
06/15/2017  E1.25 INCH       BREMER             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO HALF DOLLAR HAIL.

&&

BSS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
811 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             3 SE JANESVILLE         42.62N 92.43W
06/15/2017  E1.25 INCH       BLACK HAWK         IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            NIEKELS TO HALF DOLLAR.

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
815 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0750 PM     HAIL             1 E JANESVILLE          42.65N 92.45W
06/15/2017  E1.50 INCH       BREMER             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CC