Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Des Moines, IA

080 
WWUS53 KDMX 160300
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

IAC125-160310-
/O.CAN.KDMX.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-170616T0330Z/
Marion IA-
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central and southeastern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4116 9286 4136 9287 4147 9253 4116 9246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 257DEG 32KT 4130 9277 

$$

IAC123-160330-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-170616T0330Z/
Mahaska IA-
1000 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR MAHASKA COUNTY...

At 1000 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Oskaloosa,
moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Oskaloosa, Eddyville, Beacon, University Park, Leighton, Keomah
Village, Lake Keomah State Park and Oskaloosa Municipal Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4116 9286 4136 9287 4147 9253 4116 9246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0300Z 257DEG 32KT 4130 9277 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Ansorge

075 
WWUS53 KDMX 160320
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1020 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

IAC123-160330-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0166.000000T0000Z-170616T0330Z/
Mahaska IA-
1020 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MAHASKA COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
1030 PM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT for
south central and southeastern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4116 9286 4136 9287 4147 9253 4116 9246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0320Z 257DEG 32KT 4134 9256 

$$

Ansorge

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
851 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Friday night/
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

A weak boundary has pushed into north central Iowa this afternoon
and has been the focus for some cumulus development in vicinity of
region of speed convergence. This mixing has dropped dewpoints
into the mid 50s to lower 60s across the state and this has
limited instability overall. A few storms though may develop in
region of weak stability in the vicinity of Waterloo/Cedar Falls.
These storms may have an attendant damaging wind and/or large hail
threat.

A bigger concern for severe weather develops over southwest and
south central Iowa later this evening as the low level jet
intensifies and surges north. This will continue to lift MUCAPES
of 3000-4000 J/kg further north towards Interstate 80. Golfball
sized hail and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph will be possible with
these storms. PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches will lead to
areas with brief heavy rainfall. The storms will begin to push
east of the forecast area after midnight.

A few isolated storms may reach far northwest Iowa Friday morning
though mainly dry weather should prevail through mid afternoon.
The surface warm front should surge back north towards the
Minnesota by Friday afternoon. That said, storms tonight likely
with have a large outflow area that will impact the warm front
advance during the morning but it should recover by the afternoon
as the pressure gradient increases with as low pressure moves into
western Nebraska. Storm initiation is anticipated in vicinity of
the boundary. These storms may initially be discrete then evolve
into an MCS and drive southeast along a strong instability
gradient. As of now, the main focus for these storms will be over
the western half of Iowa. Damaging winds will be the primary
threat though given the amount of instability and deep layer shear
over 40 kts, strong/organized updrafts will bring a large hail
threat especially early. A few tornadoes may also occur. SPC has
upgraded to an enhanced risk for this region. Possible this may
require an additional upgrade to moderate if everything falls into
place.

.LONG TERM.../Saturday through Thursday/ Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu
Jun 15 2017

The severe weather threat will continue on Saturday, though
despite better mid level dynamics associated with the approach of
a vigorous shortwave, more uncertainty does exists Saturday.
Several potential scenarios that could play out Saturday. The
first is Friday night storms contaminate the airmass and hold the
warm front further south considering a weaker pressure gradient
will be in place. Second, the airmass destabilizes as the triple
point lifts into central Iowa and thunderstorms fire during the
afternoon as the upper level dynamics arrive and storms quickly
become severe. Third, the overnight MCS from South Dakota arrives
and interacts with a quickly destabilizing air mass over the
northern half of Iowa and storms become severe by late
morning/early afternoon before growing upscale and pushing east
of the warning area. Scenarios two or three are the most likely
and suspect SPC will upgrade the current Day 3 slight risk by
Saturday. Anyone with outdoor activities planned or camping this
weekend should pay special attention to weather forecasts and
warnings through Saturday.

The boundary moves through Saturday night and will bring much
cooler and less volatile weather through much of next week as a
transition to northwest flow occurs. The flow will transition
back to more zonal towards Thursday and will bring a return of
warmer and potentially more active weather.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening/
Issued at 851 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

Primary concern will be convective trends through Saturday.
Initialround of storms affected KALO but has since departed with
immediate attention turning south to KDSM and KOTM. Confidence
fairly high that KOTM will be affected by thunder and visibility
restrictions this evening. Confidence a bit less for KDSM, but
have added VCTS for a start. Another round of convection approach
from the NW tomorrow and have added VCSH wording for a start at
KFOD/KMCW/KALO until confidence increases.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...Donavon
LONG TERM...Donavon
AVIATION...Small

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
239 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-
081>086-092>097-161945-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union-
Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-
Appanoose-Davis-
239 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight

Thunderstorm chances will return later this afternoon and
tonight. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible over
central Iowa with hail and strong, gusty winds the primary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Additional thunderstorms are forecast at intervals from Friday
through Saturday night. There will be an increased threat of
severe weather at times, in the form of large hail and
particularly damaging winds. The highest severe weather risk will
be across about the southern half of Iowa on Friday night, and
areawide on Saturday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed at times between this evening and Saturday
evening.

Ansorge

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
844 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0833 PM     HAIL             6 NE MURRAY             41.11N 93.88W
06/15/2017  E1.50 INCH       CLARKE             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60 MPH WINDS AS WELL.

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
903 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0803 PM     HAIL             3 E CRESTON             41.06N 94.30W
06/15/2017  E2.00 INCH       UNION              IA   PUBLIC

            VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
914 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0909 PM     HAIL             5 S STUART              41.43N 94.32W
06/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       ADAIR              IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
924 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0921 PM     HAIL             MELCHER-DALLAS          41.23N 93.24W
06/15/2017  E1.75 INCH       MARION             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
927 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0916 PM     HAIL             LACONA                  41.19N 93.38W
06/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       WARREN             IA   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

CC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
933 PM CDT THU JUN 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0932 PM     HAIL             5 E MELCHER-DALLAS      41.22N 93.14W
06/15/2017  E2.75 INCH       MARION             IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BASEBALL SIZED HAIL AND VERY STRONG WIND.

&&

BSS