Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
216 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Scattered convection along a dry line that will extend from near
Hays to Dodge City to around Meade late today and early this
evening still appears possible given the latest 12z model runs.
The 12z forecast model soundings along this dry line late day does
indicate little if any cin will be present along with CAPE values
of 1500 to near 3000 j/kg. This combined with some improving
0-1km moisture convergence, 0-6km shear favoring super cells and
the potential for storms to be discrete then hail approaching the
size of baseballs may be possible, especially early and near the
Oklahoma border. In addition to very large hail high cloud bases
and large DCAPE supports strong damaging winds in excess of 70
mph. Given the storm motion these storms should move east of high
281 by sunset. Another slight chance for storms may then again be
possible towards midnight along the cold front as enhanced upper
level dynamics develop near the left exit region of an upper level
jet.

On Wednesday the surface cold front is forecast to be located
from northwestern Oklahoma to south central Kansas. Behind this
front more seasonable temperatures can be expected across western
Kansas as a surface high crosses the Western High Plains. Winds
will average 10 mph or less.

Some late day convection will be possible along a cold front that
will be located in south central Kansas at 0z Thursday. Later
shifts may wish to monitor if the frontal boundary will be located
near Pratt or Medicine lodge or further east southeast. At this
time am favoring the further southeast solution so will keep
precipitation out of Pratt and Barber counties Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

There will be a slight chance for convection on Thursday east of
Dodge City as moisture and warm air advection improves near the
left exit region of a 250mb jet that will be crossing the Southern
Plains early in the day. After this slight chance a brief period
of dry and warmer weather will briefly return early this weekend.
Given the westerly down slope flow Friday and Saturday and the
850mb temperature trends from the ECMWF and GFS. Temperatures
climbing into the mid to upper 90s still looks likely Friday and
Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night into early Sunday the GFS and ECMWF both are in
decent agreement with a surface cold front dropping south across
western Kansas as a northwesterly flow develops across the
Rockies. 900mb to 850mb winds behind this front suggests a period
of very windy conditions behind this frontal boundary Saturday
night into early Sunday. In addition to these gusty winds some
noticeably cooler air will begin to spread into western Kansas
also.

These cooler temperatures will linger through early next week as
a surface high crosses the Central Plains. At this time there is
some uncertainty on just how much cooling that will occur early
next week but the potential for highs staying in the 80s again on
Monday is not completely out of the question, especially if we see
an extended period of cloud cover during the day.

Several opportunities of precipitation for western Kansas will
exist early next week as multiple upper level waves embedded in
the northwesterly flow crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1205 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

A few scattered thunderstorms will be possible late day near a dry
line which will be located near the Dodge City and Hays areas
between 22z Tuesday and 02z Wednesday. Will therefore insert a
period of VCTS at both sites late today. Model soundings
indicating ceilings will be at or above 5000 ft AGL, even with the
convection late today, so VFR conditions are expected today and
overnight. Gusty south winds at around 20 knots will continue
through early this evening and then decrease after sunset.  These
southerly winds early tonight will then shift to the north
northwest after midnight as a cold front crosses southwest Kansas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  65  97 /  20   0   0  10
GCK  59  91  63  98 /   0   0   0  10
EHA  56  90  61  96 /   0   0   0  10
LBL  60  91  63  99 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  65  90  64  96 /  20   0   0  20
P28  71  94  69  98 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
409 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-140915-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
409 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 /309 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
 A dryline will advance to near a line from Ellis
 to Meade by mid afternoon, and scattered thunderstorms are
 likely to form near the dryline after 5 PM. Sufficient
 instability and shear are present to support a few supercells
 with hail larger than two inches in diameter and damaging winds.
 Although the tornado threat is low, enhanced low level shear with
 the onset of the low level jet may support tornadogenesis in
 south central Kansas around sunset.
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
A weak Pacific cold front will move through western Kansas Tuesday night and become stationary
from eastern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma Wednesday morning. A few thunderstorms with hail
larger than quarters and gusty winds may occur in south central Kansas Wednesday afternoon. Weak upper
level troughs will ripple across Kansas Thursday through Saturday, and scattered thunderstorms are
possible every day. A stronger cold front will pass Saturday night, and Sunday will be cooler.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 5 PM this evening east of a line from Ellis to Meade.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
433 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0423 PM     HAIL             WRIGHT                  37.78N 99.89W
06/13/2017  E0.75 INCH       FORD               KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

LEE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
447 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KSZ078>080-087-088-132245-
Meade KS-Clark KS-Kiowa KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
447 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL FORD...NORTHWESTERN
KIOWA...NORTHEASTERN MEADE...SOUTHWESTERN EDWARDS AND NORTHWESTERN
CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM CDT...

At 446 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles northwest of Minneola, or 19 miles south of Dodge City, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Spearville, Minneola, Ford, Fort Dodge, Wright, Bloom, Windhorst and
Willroads Garden.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3736 10002 3746 10016 3791 9979 3791 9975
      3772 9942
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 219DEG 39KT 3748 10005

HOVORKA