Severe Thunderstorm Warning 139, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Scattered convection along a dry line that will extend from near
Hays to Dodge City to around Meade late today and early this
evening still appears possible given the latest 12z model runs.
The 12z forecast model soundings along this dry line late day does
indicate little if any cin will be present along with CAPE values
of 1500 to near 3000 j/kg. This combined with some improving
0-1km moisture convergence, 0-6km shear favoring super cells and
the potential for storms to be discrete then hail approaching the
size of baseballs may be possible, especially early and near the
Oklahoma border. In addition to very large hail high cloud bases
and large DCAPE supports strong damaging winds in excess of 70
mph. Given the storm motion these storms should move east of high
281 by sunset. Another slight chance for storms may then again be
possible towards midnight along the cold front as enhanced upper
level dynamics develop near the left exit region of an upper level
jet.

On Wednesday the surface cold front is forecast to be located
from northwestern Oklahoma to south central Kansas. Behind this
front more seasonable temperatures can be expected across western
Kansas as a surface high crosses the Western High Plains. Winds
will average 10 mph or less.

Some late day convection will be possible along a cold front that
will be located in south central Kansas at 0z Thursday. Later
shifts may wish to monitor if the frontal boundary will be located
near Pratt or Medicine lodge or further east southeast. At this
time am favoring the further southeast solution so will keep
precipitation out of Pratt and Barber counties Wednesday afternoon
and Wednesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

There will be a slight chance for convection on Thursday east of
Dodge City as moisture and warm air advection improves near the
left exit region of a 250mb jet that will be crossing the Southern
Plains early in the day. After this slight chance a brief period
of dry and warmer weather will briefly return early this weekend.
Given the westerly down slope flow Friday and Saturday and the
850mb temperature trends from the ECMWF and GFS. Temperatures
climbing into the mid to upper 90s still looks likely Friday and
Saturday afternoon.

Saturday night into early Sunday the GFS and ECMWF both are in
decent agreement with a surface cold front dropping south across
western Kansas as a northwesterly flow develops across the
Rockies. 900mb to 850mb winds behind this front suggests a period
of very windy conditions behind this frontal boundary Saturday
night into early Sunday. In addition to these gusty winds some
noticeably cooler air will begin to spread into western Kansas
also.

These cooler temperatures will linger through early next week as
a surface high crosses the Central Plains. At this time there is
some uncertainty on just how much cooling that will occur early
next week but the potential for highs staying in the 80s again on
Monday is not completely out of the question, especially if we see
an extended period of cloud cover during the day.

Several opportunities of precipitation for western Kansas will
exist early next week as multiple upper level waves embedded in
the northwesterly flow crosses the Central Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

VFR will prevail at all airports through this TAF cycle, outside
of any convection this evening. Scattered thunderstorms will
continue along the dryline this evening. Dryline is expected to
retreat westward to some extent around sunset, and will keep
VCTS/CB mention at LBL/DDC/HYS to catch any convective potential
along this boundary. Coverage will be scattered, and confidence on
any direct impacts on the terminals is low. A cold front will
sweep through SW KS 06-12z Wed, with a shift to north winds at all
airports by 12z Wed. North winds look fairtly modest, only gusting
20-25 kts. SKC expected Wednesday, with winds diminishing quickly
by 18z and veering to NE/E 5-15 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  64  91  65  97 /  30   0   0  10
GCK  59  91  63  98 /  10   0   0  10
EHA  56  90  61  96 /  10   0   0  10
LBL  60  91  63  99 /  10   0   0  10
HYS  65  90  64  96 /  30   0   0  20
P28  71  94  69  98 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
409 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-140915-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
409 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017 /309 AM MDT Tue Jun 13 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
 A dryline will advance to near a line from Ellis
 to Meade by mid afternoon, and scattered thunderstorms are
 likely to form near the dryline after 5 PM. Sufficient
 instability and shear are present to support a few supercells
 with hail larger than two inches in diameter and damaging winds.
 Although the tornado threat is low, enhanced low level shear with
 the onset of the low level jet may support tornadogenesis in
 south central Kansas around sunset.
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Elevated risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
A weak Pacific cold front will move through western Kansas Tuesday night and become stationary
from eastern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma Wednesday morning. A few thunderstorms with hail
larger than quarters and gusty winds may occur in south central Kansas Wednesday afternoon. Weak upper
level troughs will ripple across Kansas Thursday through Saturday, and scattered thunderstorms are
possible every day. A stronger cold front will pass Saturday night, and Sunday will be cooler.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed after 5 PM this evening east of a line from Ellis to Meade.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
519 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KSZ045-064-065-078-079-132300-
Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Ness KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
519 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FORD...SOUTHEASTERN
NESS...EASTERN HODGEMAN...WESTERN PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 519 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Spearville, or 14 miles east of Dodge City, moving northeast at
50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Spearville, Burdett, Hanston, Offerle, Rozel, Bellefont, Gray,
Sanford, Frizell, Fort Larned Historic Site, Ford State Lake and Hain
State Lake.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3772 9973 3782 9992 3834 9957 3817 9918
TIME...MOT...LOC 2219Z 214DEG 43KT 3783 9978

HOVORKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
538 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0532 PM     HAIL             2 SE BURDETT            38.17N 99.49W
06/13/2017  E0.75 INCH       PAWNEE             KS   PUBLIC

&&

GT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
543 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KSZ031-132345-
Ellis KS-
543 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM
CDT...

At 543 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Schoenchen, or 11 miles south of Hays, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Victoria, Catherine, Schoenchen, Walker, Munjor, Antonino,
Emmeram, Pfeifer, Toulon, Turkville and Hays Regional Airport.

LAT...LON 3883 9904 3870 9916 3870 9943 3913 9933
      3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 209DEG 37KT 3871 9930

HOVORKA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
557 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KSZ045-046-065-140000-
Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Ness KS-
557 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN NESS...NORTHEASTERN
HODGEMAN...NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE AND RUSH COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

At 557 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles north of Burdett, or 22 miles northeast of Jetmore, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
La Crosse, Bison, Burdett, McCracken, Rush Center, Liebenthal,
Alexander, Nekoma, Loretta and Hargrave.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central, central and southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3866 9903 3814 9949 3818 9957 3826 9957
      3826 9968 3869 9961 3869 9903
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 209DEG 33KT 3826 9955

HOVORKA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
559 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KSZ045-046-064-140000-
Hodgeman KS-Rush KS-Ness KS-
559 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN NESS...NORTHEASTERN
HODGEMAN...NORTHWESTERN PAWNEE AND SOUTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTIES UNTIL
700 PM CDT...

At 559 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northeast of Jetmore, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bazine, Hanston and Alexander.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central, central and southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3852 9943 3835 9955 3835 9959 3831 9958
      3810 9973 3810 9997 3863 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 203DEG 28KT 3814 9983

HOVORKA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
600 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     HAIL             CATHERINE               38.93N 99.22W
06/13/2017  E1.25 INCH       ELLIS              KS   PUBLIC

&&

GT