Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
623 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Higher surface dew points will be gradually streaming north from the
southern Plains today through tomorrow. Both days, high plains
convection will be forming over central Colorado, and feeding into
the instability/CAPE axis into western Kansas late in the day. The
latest HRRR and 4 km NestedNAM drive clusters of convection through
the I-70 corridor from around 2 to 4 UTC this evening, tying into
the northern periphery of the low level moisture advection  wind
field convergence along the trailing edge of a weak northern Plains
cold front. These storms are already forming across northeast
Colorado. Stratus clouds may develop across central Kansas behind
this boundary toward the late overnight hours and the SREF
probabilities indicate, however the boundary will wash out with
rapid warming and a return to light easterly surface winds. Lee side
toughing develops again on Friday, with much higher low level
moisture to work with farther west. The NAM focuses another area of
convection near the best surface convergence over north CO and
driving a meso low across nw KS late Friday evening/night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

High surface pressure will be anchored over the northern Rockies
through the southern Plains.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms may
linger behind the boundary into Saturday morning, however
organized convection opportunity appear to shut down late Saturday
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

A cold front will cross southwest Kansas overnight. As this
frontal boundary passes the winds will shift to the north
northeast at 15 to 20 knots. Prior to the frontal passage tonight
some widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible. A few of
these thunderstorms will be near the GCK airport for the next few
hours and then weaken as they approach the DDC airport towards
sunset. Around the HYS airport there will be a chance for VCTS
after sunset as scattered thunderstorms cross north central Kansas
between 02z and 06z. Model soundings indicating VFR conditions
for most of the night. The potential exists for brief period of
MVFR conditions from 10z Friday to 15z Friday at DDC and HYS
behind the surface cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  59  76 /  20  10  20  20
GCK  55  80  57  75 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  55  81  55  77 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  56  82  57  79 /  10  20  10  20
HYS  57  78  58  73 /  40  10  30  30
P28  60  84  63  82 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
332 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-260845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
332 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 /232 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across west central and
central Kansas this evening into the overnight period. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing small hail and gusty
winds.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday.
A few of these storms may become severe with hail over an inch and
winds over 60 mph being the main concern.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  No hazards.

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
908 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 WSW TOULON            38.84N 99.27W
05/25/2017  E69 MPH          ELLIS              KS   AWOS

            THIS WAS AT THE HAYS AIRPORT.

&&

LEE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
940 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0757 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 S TREGO CENTER        38.85N 99.89W
05/25/2017  M65 MPH          TREGO              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LEE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1006 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017

KSZ030-031-045-046-260400-
Rush KS-Trego KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
1006 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NESS...SOUTHEASTERN
TREGO...NORTHERN RUSH AND ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1005 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near McCracken, or 15 miles west of La Crosse, moving northeast at 35
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, La Crosse, Ellis, Victoria, Catherine, Schoenchen, McCracken,
Liebenthal, Walker, Alexander, Brownell, Munjor, Antonino, Emmeram,
Loretta, Pfeifer, Yocemento, Toulon, Hargrave and Cedar Bluff
Reservoir.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3891 9904 3870 9904 3870 9903 3860 9903
      3844 9962 3871 9980 3913 9945 3913 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 239DEG 29KT 3856 9959

RBURG