Severe Thunderstorm Warning 117, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
623 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Higher surface dew points will be gradually streaming north from the
southern Plains today through tomorrow. Both days, high plains
convection will be forming over central Colorado, and feeding into
the instability/CAPE axis into western Kansas late in the day. The
latest HRRR and 4 km NestedNAM drive clusters of convection through
the I-70 corridor from around 2 to 4 UTC this evening, tying into
the northern periphery of the low level moisture advection  wind
field convergence along the trailing edge of a weak northern Plains
cold front. These storms are already forming across northeast
Colorado. Stratus clouds may develop across central Kansas behind
this boundary toward the late overnight hours and the SREF
probabilities indicate, however the boundary will wash out with
rapid warming and a return to light easterly surface winds. Lee side
toughing develops again on Friday, with much higher low level
moisture to work with farther west. The NAM focuses another area of
convection near the best surface convergence over north CO and
driving a meso low across nw KS late Friday evening/night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

High surface pressure will be anchored over the northern Rockies
through the southern Plains.  Showers and isolated thunderstorms may
linger behind the boundary into Saturday morning, however
organized convection opportunity appear to shut down late Saturday
into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 621 PM CDT Thu May 25 2017

A cold front will cross southwest Kansas overnight. As this
frontal boundary passes the winds will shift to the north
northeast at 15 to 20 knots. Prior to the frontal passage tonight
some widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible. A few of
these thunderstorms will be near the GCK airport for the next few
hours and then weaken as they approach the DDC airport towards
sunset. Around the HYS airport there will be a chance for VCTS
after sunset as scattered thunderstorms cross north central Kansas
between 02z and 06z. Model soundings indicating VFR conditions
for most of the night. The potential exists for brief period of
MVFR conditions from 10z Friday to 15z Friday at DDC and HYS
behind the surface cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  57  80  59  76 /  20  10  20  20
GCK  55  80  57  75 /  20  20  20  20
EHA  55  81  55  77 /  10  20  10  20
LBL  56  82  57  79 /  10  20  10  20
HYS  57  78  58  73 /  40  10  30  30
P28  60  84  63  82 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
332 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-260845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
332 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017 /232 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A chance of thunderstorms will be possible across west central and
central Kansas this evening into the overnight period. The
strongest storms will be capable of producing small hail and gusty
winds.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There is a chance of thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday.
A few of these storms may become severe with hail over an inch and
winds over 60 mph being the main concern.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  No hazards.

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
540 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017

KSZ062-063-075-076-252330-
Finney KS-Kearny KS-Grant KS-Haskell KS-
540 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KEARNY...
SOUTHWESTERN FINNEY...NORTHEASTERN GRANT AND NORTHWESTERN HASKELL
COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

At 539 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Hickok, or 11 miles northeast of Ulysses, moving east
at 20 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Plymell.

LAT...LON 3763 10125 3781 10124 3782 10084 3753 10086
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 274DEG 18KT 3770 10120

FINCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
634 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             10 NNE HICKOK           37.69N 101.15W
05/25/2017  M1.00 INCH       GRANT              KS   PUBLIC

&&

RB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
711 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017

KSZ063-064-077>079-087-088-260115-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Meade KS-Clark KS-Edwards KS-Ford KS-
711 PM CDT THU MAY 25 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FORD...EASTERN FINNEY...SOUTHERN
HODGEMAN...NORTHEASTERN MEADE...SOUTHEASTERN GRAY...WEST CENTRAL
EDWARDS AND NORTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 815 PM CDT...

At 710 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm very
near Cimarron, moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dodge City, Cimarron, Montezuma, Spearville, Minneola, Ingalls, Ford,
Offerle, Ensign, Fort Dodge, Wright, Bloom, Howell, Bellefont,
Kingsdown, Windhorst, Willroads Garden, Rolling Hill Estates, Dodge
City Regional Airport and Boot Hill Casino.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 10060 3802 10038 3798 9952 3735 9984
TIME...MOT...LOC 0010Z 287DEG 36KT 3782 10037

FINCH