Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Main short term concern is severe weather tonight. Supercell thunderstorms
have developed this afternoon across the OK/TX panhandles. Some activity
has also developed over southwest Kansas to the southwest of Dodge
City. The 19Z KDDC RAOB shows plenty of CAPE and shear for supercells.
The sounding is definitely favorable for supercells with giant hail
(2-4"). The low levels of the sounding right now are not favorable
for tornadoes. This could change as low level SRH increases in association
with a developing LLJ later tonight. In addition, inter-storm dynamics
could change low level shear if current activity kicks out an OFB for
later development to utilize. It is not exactly clear how this will
evolve. The ARW shows a quick evolution to a linear line by early evening.
The HRRRX shows more discrete supercells with a much higher threat
of hail and tornadoes. Mesoanalysis shows strengthening sig torn near
the Oklahoma border over the next few hours. A tornado was just reported
in the OK panhandle. Putting this all together, the highest tornado
threat is expected to be south of Highway 50 and near the Oklahoma
border. Meade, Clark, and Comanche counties will be the most under
the gun for the largest hail and the strongest tornado chances. The
atmosphere will have to change significant through in the next few
hours as the 19Z RAOB is not particularly supportive of large tornadoes.
....However....Low level winds are backing and dewpoints are increasing
across the CWFA, so that change might have just started to occur. Regardless
of this, be sure to pay attention to the weather and take action if
needed!

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

SW Kansas will be in between systems Wednesday. Another synoptic wave
moving through may bring another round of severe convection Thursday.
Details are unclear at this point in time. This system will exit eventually
with a drier regime by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 600 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through about 03z.
Otherwise, VFR is expected to prevail at all airports through
Wednesday. Strong shortwave over NE New Mexico at 06z Wed will
strengthen to a 550 dm closed low near Scott City by 12z Wed. Dry
slot will end convective coverage from west to east overnight as
this occurs. After 15z Wed, behind this departing system, expect
strong west winds at all airports, averaging 25-35 kts with gusts
as high as 40 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  55  80  51  78 /  40  10   0  30
GCK  53  79  49  72 /  10  10   0  30
EHA  51  79  50  73 /  10   0   0  30
LBL  54  81  53  79 /  20   0   0  20
HYS  58  76  50  71 /  70  20   0  20
P28  60  82  54  84 /  50  10   0  30

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Sugden
LONG TERM...Sugden
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
813 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-171315-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
813 AM CDT Tue May 16 2017 /713 AM MDT Tue May 16 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Large hail, strong winds, heavy rain, and tornadoes will be possible
this afternoon and evening. Pay attention to the weather and take action
if needed!

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Elevated risk
* Hail: Significant risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Significant risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
* Fire weather: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Severe thunderstorms could be possible on Thursday.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Significant risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
911 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0903 PM     HAIL             1 ESE ALEXANDER         38.46N 99.53W
05/16/2017  E1.50 INCH       RUSH               KS   PUBLIC

&&

GT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
915 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

KSZ030-031-170245-
Trego KS-Ellis KS-
915 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL TREGO AND
NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM CDT...

At 914 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Riga, or 16 miles southeast of Wakeeney, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ellis, Riga and Turkville.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central and
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3910 9911 3881 9960 3888 9978 3913 9958
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 225DEG 44KT 3887 9965

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
921 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

KSZ031-170315-
Ellis KS-
921 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL 1015
PM CDT...

At 920 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles northeast of Liebenthal, or 11 miles north of La Crosse, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Victoria, Catherine, Schoenchen, Walker, Munjor, Antonino,
Emmeram, Toulon and Hays Regional Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3871 9904 3870 9949 3913 9922 3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0220Z 215DEG 24KT 3869 9927

RUSSELL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
938 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

KSZ089-090-170315-
Barber KS-Comanche KS-
938 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BARBER AND
SOUTHEASTERN COMANCHE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 938 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Aetna, or 19 miles southeast of Coldwater, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Deerhead and Aetna.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3705 9918 3736 9890 3721 9856 3700 9903
      3700 9910
TIME...MOT...LOC 0238Z 225DEG 49KT 3704 9913

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1001 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

KSZ078-080-088-089-170330-
Clark KS-Kiowa KS-Comanche KS-Ford KS-
1001 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN FORD...SOUTHWESTERN
KIOWA...NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE AND NORTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL
1030 PM CDT...

At 1001 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 3
miles south of Clark State Lake, or 10 miles north of Ashland, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Greensburg, Bucklin, Mullinville, Clark State Lake, Lexington and The
Joy Elevator.

LAT...LON 3734 9991 3764 9957 3759 9920 3724 9967
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 225DEG 49KT 3734 9977

TATRO