Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
940 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 939 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

WV imagery indicates a westerly flow aloft prevailing across the
Western High Plains. Near the surface, a near stationary frontal
boundary stretches from the Oklahoma Panhandle northeast across
central Kansas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Convective allowing models are fairly aggressive with respect to
upscale thunderstorm growth across western into south central Kansas
this evening. The old cold front has already begun to wash out with
models shoeing more broad easterly surface winds heading into
tonight. As earlier concerns of initial development across the far
southeast have waned, models such as the HRRR have become more
aggressive with the upscale growth into a qlcs wind event well into
central Kansas before midnight. We've increased pops to account
for these latest model runs, as well as adjusted overnight lows
for early Friday morning downward. Large hail up to 2 inches may
be the primary threat in the western counties while a wind threat
and heavy rain threat may be more likely with time this evening
into central Kansas counties.

Friday the area will be under the influence of weak northeasterly
surface flow, as a a midlevel shortwave move  across the KS/NE line by
the afternoon. This should produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the afternoon given the average MUCAPES
around 500 j/KG.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

The front and major instability/CAPE axis moves farther southeast
into the southern Plains by Saturday. Any storm threats by Saturday
might be in the extreme west it at all. However, the entire southern
High Plains region maintains relatively high dew points, with richer
moisture not being scoured out. The GFS already has a trough across
the Rockies  by Sunday  with vorticity advection into Kansas by
Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Short term models earlier this afternoon have been in good
agreement with bringing a cluster of strong to severe
thunderstorms across western Kansas early tonight. Strong winds
and heavy rainfall appear to be the main hazards. Timing so fair
has also been in decent agreement between the last few runs so
will follow the latest trend and introduce strong winds in excess
of 45 knots and at least IFR visibilities and ceilings with these
storms. Timing and track favors the Garden City terminal between
01z and 03z Friday and the Dodge City, Hays and possibly even
Liberal terminals between 02z and 04z Friday. Once these storms
pass the prevailing winds will become north northeast at 10 to 15
knots through the remainder of the night. Model soundings suggest
the potential for some MVFR stratus being possible between late
tonight, especially between 09z and 15z Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  62  83  60  87 /  50  20  10   0
GCK  63  82  58  88 /  50  10  10  10
EHA  62  82  59  86 /  30  10  20  10
LBL  64  84  60  88 /  30  10  10  10
HYS  63  81  59  88 /  40  20  10   0
P28  69  86  63  89 /  70  30  20  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
426 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-300930-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
426 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 /326 AM MDT Thu Jun 29 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across central and
eastern portions of southwest Kansas this evening. The main threat
will be golf ball to tennis ball size hail and damaging winds in
excess of 60 mph.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday
with the potential for up to quarter size hail and wind gusts
upward of 60 mph. Thunderstorms will then be possible nearly each
day through the early part of next week. However, the potential
for severe weather is low.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening, mainly east of a
Garden City to Ashland line.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

32

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
851 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

KSZ030-300245-
Trego KS-
851 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN TREGO COUNTY UNTIL 945
PM CDT...

At 851 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Voda, or 9 miles northwest of Wakeeney, moving east at 30 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wakeeney, Ogallah, Collyer, Voda and Riga.

LAT...LON 3889 9961 3890 10015 3913 10015 3913 9963
TIME...MOT...LOC 0151Z 274DEG 27KT 3908 10004

RBURG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
923 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0851 PM     HAIL             3 NE MANTER             37.55N 101.85W
06/29/2017  M1.75 INCH       STANTON            KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
925 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0910 PM     HAIL             12 NNE RICHFIELD        37.41N 101.67W
06/29/2017  M3.00 INCH       STANTON            KS   PUBLIC

&&

JF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
934 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             10 NNW FETERITA         37.29N 101.52W
06/29/2017  E1.00 INCH       STEVENS            KS   PUBLIC

&&

JF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1102 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 PM     HAIL             SUN CITY                37.38N 98.92W
06/29/2017  E1.75 INCH       BARBER             KS   PUBLIC

&&

JRJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1119 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1109 PM     HAIL             7 ESE COLDWATER         37.23N 99.21W
06/29/2017  E1.50 INCH       COMANCHE           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JF