Severe Thunderstorm Warning 200, NWS Dodge City, KS

149 
WWUS53 KDDC 201958
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
258 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

KSC101-171-202030-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-170620T2030Z/
Scott KS-Lane KS-
258 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR SCOTT AND WEST CENTRAL LANE COUNTIES...

At 258 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast of
Pence, or 7 miles northwest of Scott City, moving southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Modoc, Grigston, Shallow Water, Amy, Manning and The
Tractor Elevator.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3827 10104 3846 10109 3862 10113 3869 10099
      3858 10079 3842 10049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 308DEG 16KT 3858 10099 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

UMSCHEID

060 
WWUS53 KDDC 202006
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
306 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

KSC101-171-202030-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0200.000000T0000Z-170620T2030Z/
Scott KS-Lane KS-
306 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR CENTRAL SCOTT AND WEST CENTRAL LANE COUNTIES...

At 304 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles northwest of
Scott City, moving southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Two inch hail and 70 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings. 

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Grigston, Shallow Water, Amy, Manning and The Tractor
Elevator.

At 300 pm, ping pong ball size hail was reported 6 miles west 
southwest of scott state lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

This is a dangerous storm. Prepare immediately for large destructive
hail capable of producing significant damage. People outside should
move to a shelter, inside a strong building and away from windows.

&&

LAT...LON 3828 10101 3860 10108 3869 10099 3858 10079
      3842 10049
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 308DEG 16KT 3856 10096 

HAIL...2.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

UMSCHEID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
153 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

...Updated Short term and Long term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Afternoon CU developing along a surface boundary that extended
from extreme southeast Colorado to north central Kansas earlier
this afternoon. East of this boundary a southerly wind and surface
dew points in the mid to upper 60s. Based on 18z verification it
appears that the HRRR may have the right idea with the better
chance for convection developing later today a along surface
boundary in west central and north central Kansas. At this time
the area most favorable to late day convection will be across
north central Kansas given that it will be just east of the 700mb
temperature gradient. 0-6km shear and mid level instability late
today and early tonight suggests that any storm that does develop
in these areas has the potential to become severe with the primary
threat early in the event being 2 to 3 inch hail and strong
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph.

Once developed these storms are expected to move south across
western Kansas early this evening. Still some question how long
these storms will last early tonight but given the latest HRRR and
18z NAM the potential exists that these storms may hold together
as they move all the way south to near the Oklahoma border based
on the low level moisture axis and 25 to 35 knot 0-1km south
winds. Will therefore keep a mention of ongoing convection through
midnight for much of western Kansas. This evening the hail threat
will decrease as these storms move south but strong winds and
heavy rainfall will still be possible from some of these storms
early tonight.

On Wednesday 850mb temperatures warm into the upper 20s to lower
30s which suggests highs will climb into the upper 90s to around
100 degrees for all of western Kansas. By late day there will once
again be a chance for some scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms along a surface boundary which is forecast to be
located once again near the Colorado border. Convection that does
develop along this boundary late Thursday will move southeast
again across western Kansas and is expected to weaken through the
evening. The GFS does hint at a weak upper wave crossing southwest
Kansas early Wednesday night which if this does occur may enhance
convection and keep some night time storms going through at least
midnight for locations west of highway 283.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

On Thursday the surface boundary/dry line will again be located
from extreme southeast Colorado to northwest Kansas. 850mb
temperatures at 00z Friday are forecast to be at or only a degree
or two warmer compared to 00z Thursday. Highs once again around
100 degrees still look on track for western Kansas along with a
chance for late day severe thunderstorms.

Thunderstorm chances for western Kansas currently appears more
favorable Thursday night as an upper level trough exits the
central Rockies and crosses the West Central High Plains.
Confidence is not high on how organized this convection will be as
it crosses Western Kansas Thursday night but at this time this
may be the better opportunity for widespread precipitation.
Periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be the main hazard
should an organized complex of storms roll across western Kansas
Thursday night.

A stronger upper level trough will cross the plains on Friday and
as it does a surface cold front will move across western Kansas.
This will not only bring another chance for thunderstorms on
Friday but also some cooler air is expected to return. Models over
the weekend disagree on how much cooling will occur behind this
front and how far this front will move before stalling out. At
this time confidence is not on which solution is more correct so
will stay close to the latest guidance for both precipitation
chances and temperatures through the weekend into early next week.

Despite the differences between the models over the weekend it
does appear a break in the heat can be expected for western Kansas
this weekend into early next week. Could easily have highs Sunday
and Monday only in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

A surface boundary will remain nearly stationary today near the
Colorado border. East of this surface boundary a gusty south to
southwest wind will be at 15 to 20 knots this afternoon. After 21z
Tuesday these gusty winds will fall back into the 10 to 15 knot
range. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible late day
west of Garden City and near Hays. Once developed the storms are
expected to move southeast through the early evening and weaken.
Model soundings indicating VFR conditions over the next 24 hours,
even if a few widely scattered thunderstorms across the Hays area between
21z Tuesday and 01z Wednesday and the Garden City and Dodge City
areas between 23z Tuesday and 03z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  96  70  97  69 /  20  50  10  30
GCK  99  69 101  67 /  30  50  20  30
EHA  97  67 101  66 /  20  30  20  40
LBL  97  69 100  68 /  10  30  10  40
HYS  96  70  97  70 /  60  50  20  30
P28  95  70  95  69 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
509 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-211000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
509 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017 /409 AM MDT Tue Jun 20 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

A weak surface trough developing over far southwest into west
central Kansas today will be the focus for widely scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon. The storms may propagate southward
into the evening hours before dissipating or moving out of
southwest Kansas. Stronger storms will have the potential for hail
around baseball size along with 60-70 mph wind gusts.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Limited risk
* Excessive heat: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

Afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible again on
Wednesday through Saturday as a frontal boundary slides south
through the region. The best chance for severe weather will be on
Wednesday and Thursday.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Elevated risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening for
large hail and damaging wind reports.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
205 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

KSZ043-201945-
Scott KS-
205 PM CDT TUE JUN 20 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SCOTT COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM CDT...

At 204 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southwest of Pence, or 13 miles northwest of Scott City, moving
east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Scott City, Modoc, Pence and Scott State Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 900 PM CDT for
west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3870 10070 3831 10095 3843 10113 3870 10113
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 285DEG 23KT 3860 10111

RBURG