Areal Flood Warning 2, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
600 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

...Updated Aviation...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 535 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Boundary layer reaching saturation this morning, encouraged by
last night's rainfall. Visibility wavering between 1/4-1/2 mile
here at the office. Updated to include areas of fog this morning.
Also, knocked down temperatures another few degrees across the
board today, and that still may be too warm. With clouds, numerous
showers, and persistent north winds, temperatures will move little
in the 50s today. Increased pops and QPF for rain showers and
embedded thunder expected this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The current weather pattern depicts an upper level low spinning
over the Central Rockies today then sliding into the Central
Plains tonight. A shortwave is progged to move around its
periphery and into the Southern Plains this afternoon enhancing
lift across portions of the Southern and Central Plains. Towards
the surface, an area of low pressure will be located southeast of
the area through tonight brining northerly winds to the forecast
area. Ample moisture will be found in the lower levels of the
atmosphere. This in combination low level lift will lead to a
thick deck of stratus clouds through tonight. The only exception
to this will be along the KS/OK border where some clearing will be
possible towards sunrise tomorrow. In addition to the cloudy
skies, scattered rain showers or drizzle will be possible
throughout the day and into this evening. Precipitation chances
should then decrease from west to east tonight. Thunderstorms will
be possible across central and south central Kansas this afternoon
with a few strong to severe storms possible across south central
Kansas. As for temperatures, highs today look to range from the
upper 50s across west central Kansas to around 70 degrees across
south central Kansas. Lows tonight are forecasted to range from
around 40 degrees across west central Kansas to upper 40s across
south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Cloudiness decreases across western Kansas Saturday with mostly
clear skies anticipated Saturday night into Sunday. Another round
of showers or thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night through
Monday as another upper level disturbance slides through the area.
Otherwise expect an increase in cloudiness. The remainder of the
long term period looks dry as an upper level ridge builds across
the western United States with high pressure being the dominate
feature across the Plains at the surface. Another day of highs in
the 60s is in store for Saturday, then rebounding into the 70s
Sunday and Monday. Upper 60s to lower 70s are expected Tuesday and
Wednesday with 80s possible towards the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Poor flying conditions expected to prevail. IFR stratus cigs will
be persistent through today, perhaps improving at times to low
end MVFR, but not by much. Areas of BR/FG will reduce visibility,
especially before 18z. Also, numerous rain showers are expected
today, further encouraging low cigs and vis. Some embedded thunder
is possible at times. North winds will be strong and gusty
through 00z Sat at all airports, gusting near 30 kts at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  59  45  66  44 /  70  50  10   0
GCK  57  43  64  43 /  70  50  10   0
EHA  53  42  65  45 /  60  40   0   0
LBL  59  44  67  45 /  50  40   0   0
HYS  57  43  60  42 /  70  70  20   0
P28  66  48  67  47 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Turner
SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Turner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
334 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-200845-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
334 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017 /234 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into
tonight, mainly across central and south central Kansas. In
addition, a few strong to marginally severe storms will be
possible across south central Kansas this evening.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Elevated risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Elevated risk
* Lightning: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

A chance of thunderstorms will be possible Sunday night through
Monday. These storms do not look to be severe at this time.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Saturday
  No hazards.

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  No hazards.

* Wednesday
  No hazards.

* Thursday
  No hazards.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage http://weather.gov/ddc/ehwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1055 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

KSZ089-090-191645-
Barber KS-Comanche KS-
1055 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1054 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northeast of Freedom, or 15 miles west of Alva, moving north at
40 mph.

Half inch hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Medicine Lodge, Coldwater, Hardtner, Lake City, Wilmore, Deerhead,
Aetna, Buttermilk and Lake Coldwater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also possible with this storm.

&&

LAT...LON 3737 9933 3734 9858 3700 9856 3700 9939
TIME...MOT...LOC 1554Z 178DEG 37KT 3688 9893

TATRO