Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1130 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Muggy air will be displaced by a cold front which will pass
through during the day and evening on Friday. Drier air and
seasonable temperatures are expected through the rest of the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
For the overnight, faster zonal flow aloft and increasing
moisture convergence from eastern OH will aid increasing POPs
from west to east, with scattered shra/tsra spreading eastward
throughout the night. Between 09z and 12z...expect 50-60%
coverage across central and western PA as sfc front drops
southeastward into western PA. Severe is not expected, but
locally heavy downpours will still accompany any storms, as PW
remains around 2.0" south of the approaching front.

It will be another muggy night with mins ranging from the mid
60s north to the lower to middle 70s southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Sfc cold front nears the nrn tier before sunrise, but takes
quite a bit of time to cross the CWA. SPC day2 has most of our
southern half in the SLGT risk and the rest in MRGL. The rain of
today will lower FFG for tomorrow, but so far, the dry areas
are getting the rain and the wetter areas are staying more-dry.
Overnight shift can re-assess the possibility of a FFA for
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure is forecast to dominate the region on Saturday
with an expected break from pcpn and hier humidities of this
week. However, a trailing front progressing from southern Canada
may generate some convection on Sunday before moving off the
coast early next week. High pressure should bring dry wx and
less humid air again Monday. However, returning moisture behind
the stalling front will bring an increasing chance for showers
on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Temperatures should be within a few degrees of mid-July climate
normals.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Central Pa will remain in a moist southwest flow tonight ahead
of low pressure over the Grt Lks. Although scattered showers and
few thunderstorms will affect parts of the area tonight, the
main forecast concern is the potential of low cigs at KBFD/KJST,
resulting from orographic lift, combined with diurnal cooling.
KBFD already reporting a 900ft cig at 03Z and model soundings
support cigs falling below 500ft late tonight. At KJST,
model soundings and SREF prob charts support about a 60 pct
chance of IFR cigs later tonight with an onset most likely
between 08Z-10Z.

Further east, light wind and wet ground could lead to areas of
fog overnight. However, upstream satellite imagery and model
soundings suggest there will be too much cloudiness for
significant fog formation. Would estimate the probability of
late night IFR at near 50 pct for KIPT, 30 pct at KUNV/KLNS and
10-20 pct at KMDT/KAOO.

Improving conditions are expected after 12Z Friday, as low
cigs/fog lift. Model soundings and SREF prob charts support
predominantly VFR conditions by afternoon. However, scattered
showers and thunderstorms forming ahead of an approaching cold
front could bring temporary reductions through Friday evening,
mainly over the southern half of Pa.

.OUTLOOK...

Sat...AM low cigs likely BFD/JST.

Sun...AM fog poss BFD. Slight chc of late day tsra impacts BFD.

Mon...Sct PM tsra impacts possible.

Tue...AM low cigs/showers possible. Sct PM tsra impacts poss
east.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/DeVoir
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Lambert/Gartner
AVIATION...Fitzgerald

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
805 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-150015-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-
Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-
Adams-York-Lancaster-
805 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail
are possible once again Friday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1221 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017

PAZ024-025-033-034-140500-
Bedford PA-Somerset PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-
1221 AM EDT FRI JUL 14 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 1220 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Belsano to near Seven Springs. Movement was
east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Belmont, Johnstown, Westmont, Somerset, Portage, Hollidaysburg,
Nanty-Glo, Windber, Ebensburg, Bedford, Altoona, Acosta, Salix-Beauty
Line Park, Buffalo Mills, Seven Springs, Friedens, Roaring Spring,
Ski Gap, Loretto and Boswell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 7938 4009 7926 4012 7921 4012 7917
      4036 7900 4064 7884 4040 7818 4030 7826
      4022 7823 3972 7862 3972 7874
TIME...MOT...LOC 0420Z 286DEG 52KT 4048 7892 3999 7931

CR