Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1109 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through the region late today bringing
break in the humidity for the second half of the weekend into
early next week. Summertime heat and humidity will return later
in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A lot of clouds across eastern areas, but south central PA just
starting to get some heating. Band of showers and storms just
ready to move into far western areas. Adjusted grids some.

No change in slight risk area. Best chance will be to the
east, where dewpoints are higher, if clearing can occur. Overall
the front is trending a little faster than in recent days.

Some heavy rain across the northwest yesterday and overnight,
but expect the main action to be further east, and like
yesterday, showers and storms are moving along at about 25 mph,
so not seeing a need for any flood products at this point.

Earlier discussion below.

Greater upper forcing should arrive later today - right in time
with the heating, but it could arrive a little early to make a
maximum impact. Still, CAPEs in the 1500-2000 range in the
afternoon west and central and very early evening in the east
will mean a loaded powder keg. Triggers in the form of the weak
cold/dry front and a lee side trough will help fire up numerous
TSRA. Again, it could start early in the day with the main forcing
not far away in ern OH at 3 AM. SPC MRGL risk covers the far NW
and a SLGT risk covers the rest of the area. Trend is for a
mixed-mode of storms ranging from multi-cell clusters to a few
lead supercells. This is a good bet as we have already seen one
spinning storm across Elk County overnight. LCLs will be
relatively low and the NAM progs EHIs to go above 2 units in the
eastern half of the area in mid-day. This will be a very busy
day if we can get the promised CAPEs. Dewpoints are already in
the u60s and l70s over the east and sky clear for the most part
there and into the morning. It could be dry over the west by
noon or 2 pm at the latest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
Made some minor changes to the grids. Tried to cut POPS back
some.

Earlier discussion below.

The front moves through and clears out the storms around sunset
or a little earlier. Just an isolated shower of two could pop up
in the evening under the upper trough as it swings into PA from
the NW. Otherwise, it looks dry and dewpoints should dip back to
around 60F by morning in the NW but they may hang in the m-u60s
all night in the lower Susq - especially if no clearing/drying
can occur before sun set there. Thinking is that there should be
just enough time between the rain there and sunset to allow for
some drying and keep away widespread dense fog. Patchy fog - esp
in the rural valleys is possible, though.

Sunday looks cooler than normal in the NW. But, it should be
just a little warmer than normal in the SE thanks to a light
downslope and a good amount of sunshine there. Can't rule out
an aftn SHRA/TSRA in the north or the Laurels under the colder
air aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Main change so far today was to go with mainly dry conditions
for late Sunday.

Earlier discussion below.

Not a lot of change from recent days.

Made a few changes, but left as much of the period Sunday
into early Wednesday on the dry side.

Still looks wet at times later Wed into Thursday.

The big thing is the EC last night went toward other guidance
with more of an upper lvl trough by the end of next week. Thus
a risk of showers and storms next Friday.

Prior to this, looking at more typical summer weather than we
have seen so far this season. Temperatures will be close to
normal for the period and dewpoints higher than what we have
seen this season for the most part.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Still some low clouds to the west, and a lot of clouds to the
east. Will continue to update TAFS as needed.

Earlier discussion below.

Diurnal heating should result in lifting MVFR cigs to VFR by
afternoon. Scattered to numerous Tstorms are expected during
the afternoon-early evening and will likely produce brief
sub-VFR restrictions and strong surface wind gusts especially
over the eastern 1/2 of the airspace. Model guidance suggests
residual low level moisture ascending the western high terrain
via weak upslope flow should result in a period of low ceilings
at KBFD/KJST early Sunday morning.

.OUTLOOK...

Sun...AM low cigs possible BFD/JST. Otherwise VFR.

Mon...Isold PM Tstorm impacts possible southern 1/2 airspace.

Tue...Isold PM Tstorm impacts possible southwest 1/3 airspace.

Wed...Isold PM Tstorm impacts possible.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo/Martin
SHORT TERM...Dangelo/Martin
LONG TERM...Martin
AVIATION...Martin/Steinbugl

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service State College PA
457 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

PAZ005-006-010-011-037-020900-
McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Tioga-
457 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible during the
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004-020900-
Warren-
457 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail
are possible early this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-020900-
Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
457 AM EDT Sat Jul 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible during the
afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are
possible Monday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1009 AM EDT SAT JUL 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE SAINT MARYS        41.46N  78.52W
07/01/2017                   ELK                PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF WEST
            CREEK ROAD AND LITTLE BEAR RUN ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701265

EVANEGO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1208 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

PAZ019-026-011645-
Huntingdon PA-Southern Centre PA-
1208 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON AND SOUTHERN
CENTRE COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

At 1207 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Stormstown, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bellefonte, State College, Port Matilda, Whipple Dam State Park,
Ramblewood, Pine Grove Mills, Houserville, Milesburg, Boalsburg,
Pleasant Gap, Lemont, Park Forest Village, Centre Hall, Rock Springs,
Stormstown, Julian, Seven Mountains, Warriors Mark, Unionville and
Tussey Mountain Ski Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4073 7813 4074 7812 4075 7814 4078 7816
      4098 7776 4076 7761 4073 7768 4072 7768
      4070 7770 4069 7770 4061 7806
TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 246DEG 16KT 4073 7802

Martin

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1251 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

PAZ019-026-027-011715-
Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-Southern Centre PA-
1251 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...MIFFLIN...
AND SOUTHERN CENTRE COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

At 1250 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Port Matilda to near Whipple Dam State Park
to near Raystown Dam. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
State College, Bellefonte, Huntingdon, Lewistown, Port Matilda,
Whipple Dam State Park, Zion, Pine Grove Mills, Houserville,
Raystown Dam, Milesburg, Reedsville, Pleasant Gap, Park Forest
Village, Centre Hall, Stormstown, Strodes Mills, Spring Mills and
Mcalevys Fort.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 7768 4081 7752 4050 7764 4040 7809
      4061 7801 4080 7807
TIME...MOT...LOC 1650Z 241DEG 34KT 4082 7800 4065 7794 4041 7810

Evanego

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
115 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

PAZ019-026>028-049-050-011745-
Union PA-Juniata PA-Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-Snyder PA-
Southern Centre PA-
115 PM EDT SAT JUL 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF UNION...JUNIATA...
HUNTINGDON...MIFFLIN...SNYDER...AND SOUTHERN CENTRE COUNTIES UNTIL
145 PM EDT...

At 114 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Houserville to near Reedsville to near
Allensville. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, State College, Yeagertown, Coburn, Alfarata, Madisonburg,
Rebersburg, Weikert, Reedsville, Millheim, Juniata Terrace,
Snyder-Middleswart State Park, Centre Hall, Strodes Mills, McClure,
Spring Mills, Reeds Gap State Park, Highland Park, Mcalevys Fort and
Potters Mills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4039 7789 4061 7784 4081 7785 4098 7745
      4099 7734 4078 7721 4052 7740
TIME...MOT...LOC 1714Z 247DEG 35KT 4083 7780 4067 7765 4048 7781

Evanego