Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
244 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will move through the region late today and
early tonight. Much cooler and drier conditions will return for
the second half of the week. Temperatures will average a few
degrees below normal highs starting tomorrow and lasting into
early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Radar motor was installed and it has been up for over an hour.
In a nick of time.

Updated forecast to show the potential for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. First lead cells developed over
Warren County. Stronger storms are to our west. The NCEP and GSD
HRRR show at least two potential lines this afternoon and
evening. With deep cores and 850 hPa winds 40 to 55kts strong
and severe winds at the surface are possible.

Tornado watch was for more QLCS type tornadoes. Though we have
had a few initial rotating cells in KCCX and KBUF radar. More
linear features to our west.

Ahead of the convection a very hot humid Summer day. Farther
east you live the more likely this day will end on a good note
as convection will be in evening and SPC may issue watch for
eastern PA later this afternoon.

Behind the line POPS drop fast and drier air comes. Some areas
of fog possible. But a cooler and drier AM Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Wednesday will be noticeably drier as the PW values crash to -1
sigma below normal after being well +1 to +2 sigma above
normal. It will also be significantly cooler. The 850 hPa
temperatures fall to near normal Wednesday and will fall below
normal overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Chance of rain should be very low Wednesday.

The cool air aloft will likely produce some cumulus in the
mountains during the afternoon hours.

It should be a nice and notably cooler day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An extended period of early autumn-like weather will begin
Wednesday and continue right through the upcoming weekend as a
-2 sigma upper trough (and similarly anomalous/cool 850 mb
 temps) move over the Great Lakes and NE U.S.

1026-1028 mb SFC High (+2-3 Sigma) over south-central Canada
will drift slowly to the Great Lakes by this weekend

Daytime high temps will be about 5-7 Deg F below normal across
the Western Mtns on Wednesday, though still just slightly below
normal across the SE zones prior to the arrival of the
deeper/colder air for the latter part of the week.

GEFS mean 850 mb temps will dip about 2-3 deg C in all locations
for Thursday-Sunday, leading to max temps averaging 5-10 F
below normal (with min temp departures about 10-13F below
normal Friday-Sunday) as a large Canadian High Pressure area
pushes SE across the Glakes Region and becomes centered over the
NE states.

Lows Fri/Sat/Sun mornings with high centered overhead will be
dipping into the l-m 40s over the Northern Mountains (and deeper
valleys of the Central Mountains) and solidly into the 50s
elsewhere. Some of the perennial cold spots near and to the east
of KBFD could see readings of 38 or 39F.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Most of the eastern areas mostly sunny with some cumulus clouds
about making for a bumpy ride in the boundary layer. Over
western PA and OH there is a line of strong and severe storms.
Strong winds and large hail are possible. Check radar before
flying over western PA this afternoon and central areas this
evening.

The line of storms will move east this afternoon and evening.

Areas of patchy fog will develop around/after midnight. Spotty
MVFR and IFR.

Conditions will improve rapidly Wednesday morning, as cool
Canadian high pressure builds into the area.

.OUTLOOK...

Wed...AM low cigs BFD/JST, otherwise VFR.
Thu-Sat...No sig wx expected.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KCCX is fixed with new motor installed.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Grumm
SHORT TERM...Grumm
LONG TERM...La Corte/Lambert
AVIATION...Grumm/Lambert
EQUIPMENT...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
709 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

PAZ006-012-037-041-042-045-046-232315-
Potter-Northern Clinton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
709 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 461 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ027-028-035-036-049>053-056>059-063>066-232315-
Mifflin-Juniata-Fulton-Franklin-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-
Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-
Lancaster-
709 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 464 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ018-019-025-026-034-232315-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Bedford-
709 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 462 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ004-005-010-011-017-024-033-232315-
Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
709 PM EDT Tue Aug 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

No hazardous weather is expected.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
544 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

PAZ010>012-017-018-222230-
Northern Centre PA-Northern Clinton PA-Cameron PA-Clearfield PA-
Elk PA-
544 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ELK...CLEARFIELD...
CAMERON...AND CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

At 543 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Sizerville to Truman to near Brockport to 6 miles
south of Brookville. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
DuBois, St. Marys, Clearfield, Ridgway, Force, Curwensville, Hicks
Run, Cameron, Keating, Woodland, Hyde, Tamarack, Lecontes Mills,
Medix Run, Kettle Creek State Park, S.B. Elliot State Park, Penfield,
Karthaus, Westport and Rockton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4148 7805 4148 7760 4143 7758 4121 7788
      4093 7850 4094 7881 4114 7880 4120 7876
      4120 7871 4123 7871 4123 7874 4126 7873
      4133 7884 4161 7847 4162 7820
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 275DEG 27KT 4159 7821 4146 7837 4128 7864 4107
7910

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
643 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

PAZ042-222315-
Sullivan PA-
643 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SULLIVAN COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM EDT...

At 643 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Jamison City, moving east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ricketts Glen State Park and Laporte.

LAT...LON 4132 7631 4131 7632 4131 7641 4128 7645
      4129 7651 4132 7653 4140 7653 4146 7625
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 259DEG 35KT 4135 7640

Lambert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
645 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     JOHNSONBURG             41.49N  78.68W
08/22/2017                   ELK                PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701433

LA CORTE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
646 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WILCOX                  41.58N  78.68W
08/22/2017                   ELK                PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER CTP1701434

LA CORTE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
659 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

PAZ056-057-059-063-222330-
Perry PA-Cumberland PA-Lebanon PA-Dauphin PA-
659 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF DAUPHIN...CUMBERLAND...
PERRY...AND LEBANON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 659 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Dehart Dam to near Marysville to Wertzville
to Schlusser. Movement was east at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Dehart Dam around 705 PM EDT.
  Linglestown around 710 PM EDT.
  Harrisburg, Wormleysburg and Rockville around 715 PM EDT.
  Penbrook and Skyline View around 720 PM EDT.
  Progress, Colonial Park and Penn National Race Course around 725
  PM EDT.
  Lemoyne, Hummelstown and Hershey around 730 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Enders, Ono,
Dauphin, Halifax and City Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4034 7711 4052 7684 4059 7659 4049 7644
      4038 7645 4031 7653 4020 7710
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 263DEG 23KT 4048 7679 4040 7690 4029 7703 4022
7715

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
714 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

PAZ056>058-222345-
Perry PA-Dauphin PA-Schuylkill PA-
714 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SCHUYLKILL...DAUPHIN...
AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EDT...

At 712 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Newport, moving east at 25 mph. Another strong thunderstorm was
located just west of Tower City.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland, Newport, Beurys Lake, Lykens, Buck Run, Tower City,
Millersburg, Donaldson, Klingerstown, New Buffalo, Fountain Springs,
Forrestville, Williamstown, Lavelle, Elizabethville, Branchdale,
Tremont, Locustdale, Girardville and Newtown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4042 7709 4049 7720 4057 7715 4060 7707
      4061 7701 4063 7695 4060 7692 4063 7686
      4062 7684 4065 7680 4064 7679 4066 7671
      4081 7630 4062 7627
TIME...MOT...LOC 2312Z 263DEG 23KT 4052 7707

Lambert