Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS State College, PA

535 
WWUS51 KCTP 032115
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
515 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

PAC041-055-099-032125-
/O.CAN.KCTP.SV.W.0110.000000T0000Z-170803T2130Z/
Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-Perry PA-
515 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...
NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4014 7780 4015 7781 4022 7776 4028 7743
      4026 7742 4013 7740 4012 7746 4012 7764
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 267DEG 15KT 4019 7746 

$$

DeVoir

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and more humid conditions will prevail until a strong cold
front moves through Friday night, bringing cooler and drier
conditions for the weekend. Unseasonably cool weather will
continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Weak forcing over the region today with the main frontal
boundary draped up north of the area. Dewpoints have rebounded
back to near 70F in the SE with above normal PWATs across
central PA. CAPE around 1000J has already begun kicking off
showers/sct tstms mainly over the western and northern ridges,
and these will persist through the afternoon. Activity looks to
shift to the east late this afternoon through mid evening, with
latest guidance bringing best chance for a TSTM in the lower
Susq from 23-03z. Much like yesterday, deep layer shear is
pretty weak, limiting severe threat somewhat with mainly
disorganized convection and brief downpours and strong wind
gusts the biggest threat.

Convection will begin to wane with the loss of heating, with
the second half of the overnight seeing just isolated
showers/thunderstorms left over and a redevelopment of valley
fog. Lows will be in the 60s and it will feel muggy over much
of the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Models are in good agreement with an unseasonably strong cold
front on the doorstep of western PA by late Friday afternoon.
They also agree in generating impressive instability with the
added ingredient of increasing deep layer shear later in the day.
The area is outlooked for a SLIGHT risk of severe storms, and
at first glance it looks like the main cold front will be
entering the region after max heating with waning instability.
But the guidance is hinting at a pre-frontal trough developing
over west-central PA which is used to act as a focus for
developing convection during the afternoon. Additionally, the
GFS/ECMWF paint a relatively broad area of enhanced low level
EHI's by afternoon and evening which should support scattered
supercells and even an isolated tornado. So anticipate scattered
convection to kick off in the early afternoon with the main show
later in the day through the evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Following the cold front, Saturday will turn significantly
cooler with just the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms as
the still strong mid summer sun and relatively cold air aloft
combine to support steepening lapse rates with daytime heating.
With the upper shortwave expected to begin shearing out to our
north, models suggest the best chance for a shower will be over
the higher elevations of the west and north.

Sunday will be dry and unseasonably cool as high pressure slides
over the state. The cooler than normal conditions look to
continue for much of next week.

A new shortwave is made to approach for Monday. The ECMWF
shows a stronger trough and even a well developed surface low
racing through the state during the day. The GEFS shows a weaker
inverted surface trough and a much flatter wave aloft. The
ECENS agrees with its deterministic counterpart showing a well
organized surface low. A model blend for POPs yields a fairly
wet day as the new surge of showers pushes through the area
during the day.

Drier air is slated to return for midweek as the frontal system
is moved off to our east. From Wed-Thu there is some
disagreement with rainfall potential. The GFS/GEFS are wetter
under a flatter upper zonal flow regime while the ECMWF keeps
us mainly dry until the end of the week. Too early to tease out
the details at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions today except in scattered SHRA/TSRA this
afternoon into early evening.

Valley fog forms again tonight bringing scattered restrictions
to the usual spots.

More organized and widespread activity expected on Friday into
Friday night with scattered convection ahead and more numerous
thunderstorms accompanying the cold front.

.OUTLOOK...
Fri...Stronger and more widespread storms possible with front,
mainly late.
Sat-Sun...No sig wx.
Mon...Showers likely, chance of thunderstorms.
Tue...Chance of showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...La Corte/RXR
NEAR TERM...RXR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...La Corte
AVIATION...RXR

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service State College PA
1229 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-041630-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
1229 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible Friday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056-057-063-
064-041630-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-
Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Cumberland-Adams-
1229 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail and locally
heavy rainfall are possible during the afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible Friday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ058-059-065-066-041630-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-York-Lancaster-
1229 PM EDT Thu Aug 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds, hail and locally
heavy rain are possible during the afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with damaging winds, hail and locally
heavy rainfall are possible Friday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

MS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
159 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

PAZ063-064-031830-
Adams PA-Cumberland PA-
159 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 159 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Pine Grove Furnace. This storm was nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pine Grove Furnace, Aspers, Gardners, Bendersville and Idaville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3993 7741 4002 7744 4012 7730 4003 7718
      3995 7720
TIME...MOT...LOC 1759Z 253DEG 2KT 4000 7737

RXR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
205 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

PAZ012-018-031830-
Northern Centre PA-Northern Clinton PA-
205 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 205 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Keating to near Clarence. Movement was
northeast at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and brief wind gusts in excess of 30 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Westport, Glen Union, Renovo, Keating and South Renovo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.

&&

LAT...LON 4127 7758 4107 7794 4115 7804 4116 7805
      4128 7792 4141 7774
TIME...MOT...LOC 1805Z 227DEG 16KT 4126 7785 4113 7794

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
301 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

PAZ064-031930-
Adams PA-
301 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 300 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Cashtown. This storm was nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Aspers, Cashtown, Arendtsville, McKnightstown, Biglerville and
Bendersville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3992 7746 4002 7729 4002 7727 3997 7718
      3989 7718 3984 7741
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 238DEG 3KT 3990 7735

RXR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
354 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

PAZ026-028-056-063-032045-
Perry PA-Cumberland PA-Juniata PA-Huntingdon PA-
354 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...JUNIATA...
CUMBERLAND...AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 354 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Big
Spring State Park, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
East Waterford, Bloserville, Colonel Denning State Park, Perulack,
Big Spring State Park, Honey Grove, Shirleysburg, Blain and New
Germantown.

LAT...LON 4033 7789 4047 7742 4021 7734 4021 7761
      4023 7761 4022 7764 4023 7765 4026 7765
      4026 7767 4027 7766 4029 7767 4021 7776
      4021 7785
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 245DEG 16KT 4029 7777

DeVoir

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
354 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

PAZ026-028-036-056-063-032045-
Perry PA-Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-Juniata PA-Huntingdon PA-
354 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...
FRANKLIN...JUNIATA...CUMBERLAND...AND PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM
EDT...

At 354 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Big
Spring State Park, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
East Waterford, Bloserville, Colonel Denning State Park, Perulack,
Big Spring State Park, Honey Grove, Doylesburg, Shirleysburg, Blain
and New Germantown.

LAT...LON 4033 7789 4047 7742 4021 7734 4018 7763
      4018 7772 4019 7779 4021 7785
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 245DEG 16KT 4029 7777

DeVoir

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
422 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

PAZ035-036-032100-
Fulton PA-Franklin PA-
422 PM EDT THU AUG 3 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF FRANKLIN AND FULTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 422 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Big
Cove Tannery, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Thomas, Mercersburg, Warfordsburg, Claylick, Big Cove Tannery,
Fort Loudon, McConnellsburg, Williamson and Whitetail Ski Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3974 7823 4002 7797 3989 7773 3972 7794
      3972 7811
TIME...MOT...LOC 2022Z 225DEG 19KT 3979 7803

RXR