Severe Thunderstorm Warning 108, NWS State College, PA

390 
WWUS51 KCTP 030201
SVSCTP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1001 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAC081-093-097-119-030211-
/O.CAN.KCTP.SV.W.0108.000000T0000Z-170803T0230Z/
Northumberland PA-Lycoming PA-Montour PA-Union PA-
1001 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NORTHUMBERLAND...
SOUTHEASTERN LYCOMING...NORTHWESTERN MONTOUR AND NORTHEASTERN UNION
COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4102 7659 4112 7701 4125 7701 4127 7666
      4116 7663 4115 7664 4108 7661 4106 7661
      4106 7660
TIME...MOT...LOC 0200Z 271DEG 16KT 4116 7675 

$$

DeVoir

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
756 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and more humid conditions will prevail until a strong cold
front moves through Friday night, bringing cooler and drier
conditions for the weekend. Unseasonably cool weather will
continue into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Scattered convection is spread throughout central PA this
evening...slowly weakening at present. Still some slow moving
heavy rainers at mid evening, but flood threat has diminished
in the past hour.

Expect fairly widespread valley fog overnight into Thursday
morning given the amount of moisture deposited this afternoon
and evening. Mins will range from near 60 north to the upper 60s
southeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Thursday looks like more of the same with warm and humid
conditions and scattered mainly afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms. Shear remains weak.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
20Z update...

No major changes were made to the Fri-Wed forecast. The main
focus remains severe storm potential on Friday per SPC SLGT
risk outlook. Updated the HWO to include mention of severe
storms with damaging winds/large hail and added severe wording
to wx grids and zone text/web forecast. Models are showing
somewhat better agreement with the system for Monday so added
10-15 percent to pcpn probs based on a blend of NBM/WPC and
ECENS MOS.

Previous discussion...
The main player in the medium range will be a relatively strong
cold front that will be approaching the region Friday and
moving through the area Friday night into early Saturday
morning. Falling heights and strengthening winds aloft will
combine with moderate-strong instability to support the risk of
severe storms. Models show CAPEs in the 1000-2000J range by
afternoon along with increasing deep layer shear. The GFS/ECMWF
even paint a relatively broad area of enhanced low level EHI's
by afternoon and evening which should support some of the storms
becoming supercells.

Following the cold front, Saturday will turn significantly
cooler with just the chance of a few showers/thunderstorms as
the still strong mid summer sun and relatively cold air aloft
combine to support steepening lapse rates with daytime heating.
With the upper shortwave expected to begin shearing out to our
north, models suggest the best chance for a shower will be over
the higher elevations of the west and north.

Sunday will be dry and unseasonably cool as high pressure slides
over the state. The cooler than normal conditions will continue
into at least early next week.

A new shortwave and frontal system are made to approach by
later Monday into the overnight. There are the usual timing
differences in features between the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF so I
used a model blend for POP guidance which brings a new surge of
showers into the area during the day.

Drier air is slated to return into midweek as the frontal
system is moved off to our east.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Scattered SHRA/TSRA activity once again this evening across the
region. Activity has been quite pulse-oriented this afternoon,
with storms pulsing up and down in a matter of minutes.

For TAF sites, will have to watch KUNV and KIPT for the next
few hours, to see if any activity holds together to affect
these airfields. Was forced to include brief TSRA restrictions
at KAOO for a short time with the 00z issuance, based on ongoing
storm/obs.

Fog may be more widespread tonight, given the nature of the
rainfall today, and rain that has affected most TAF locations
today.

More of the same for Thursday, with more organized and
widespread activity Friday.

.OUTLOOK...
Thu...AM fog. Scattered PM SHRA/TSRA with local impacts.
Fri...Stronger and more widespread storms possible with front,
mainly late.
Sat-Sun...No sig wx.
Mon...Chance of showers.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Martin
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Martin
SHORT TERM...Martin
LONG TERM...Steinbugl
AVIATION...Jung/Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service State College PA
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

PAZ059-064>066-031645-
Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are
possible during the afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are
possible Friday afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024>026-033>035-031645-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-
Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible Friday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-018-019-027-028-036-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>058-063-
031645-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Mifflin-Juniata-
Franklin-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-
Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-
Dauphin-Schuylkill-Cumberland-
1238 PM EDT Wed Aug 2 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and hail are
possible during the afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible Friday
afternoon and evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
408 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ027-050-022045-
Mifflin PA-Snyder PA-
408 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF MIFFLIN AND SNYDER
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 408 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Belleville, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Highland Park, Belltown, Yeagertown, Alfarata, Belleville,
Reedsville, Juniata Terrace, Milroy, Burnham, Strodes Mills, McClure,
Reeds Gap State Park, Wagner, Siglerville and Maitland.

LAT...LON 4060 7775 4083 7743 4084 7737 4083 7736
      4081 7735 4081 7733 4073 7724 4053 7769
TIME...MOT...LOC 2008Z 230DEG 24KT 4061 7766

DeVoir

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
503 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ042-022130-
Sullivan PA-
503 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SULLIVAN COUNTY UNTIL
530 PM EDT...

At 502 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Lincoln Falls. This storm was nearly stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dushore and Forksville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4157 7664 4155 7636 4142 7652 4155 7667
      4158 7665
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 302DEG 3KT 4155 7660

DeVoir

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
629 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ042-022315-
Sullivan PA-
629 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SULLIVAN COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM EDT...

At 629 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm 8 miles
northwest of Ricketts Glen State Park. This storm was nearly
stationary.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Dushore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 4150 7625 4138 7630 4142 7647 4154 7641
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 105DEG 2KT 4146 7637

DeVoir

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
705 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ006-012-037-041-022330-
Potter PA-Northern Clinton PA-Northern Lycoming PA-Tioga PA-
705 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LYCOMING...POTTER...
TIOGA...AND CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 704 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Ole Bull State Park to near Hyner. Movement
was east at 15 mph.

Very heavy rain is expected.
Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Leetonia, Hyner, Cedar Run, Cammal, South Renovo, Slate Run and
Renovo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 4165 7734 4132 7744 4128 7778 4160 7767
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 250DEG 13KT 4156 7761 4135 7769

Jung

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
818 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ026>028-030115-
Juniata PA-Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-
818 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...MIFFLIN...
AND JUNIATA COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 818 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Mount Union to 8 miles west of Big Spring
State Park to Rockhill Furnace. Movement was southeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Perulack, Rockhill Furnace, Shirleysburg, Newton Hamilton and
Orbisonia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Minor flooding may develop. Do not drive into water covering the
roadway.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 7795 4032 7787 4043 7784 4035 7759
      4027 7769 4024 7774 4020 7778
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 293DEG 9KT 4040 7780 4031 7782 4024 7791

DeVoir

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
915 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

PAZ041-042-046-049-051-052-030200-
Southern Lycoming PA-Sullivan PA-Union PA-Northumberland PA-
Northern Lycoming PA-Montour PA-
915 PM EDT WED AUG 2 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF NORTHUMBERLAND...
LYCOMING...MONTOUR...UNION...AND SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 1000 PM
EDT...

At 915 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Ralston to Elimsport. Movement was east at
15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Montoursville, Williamsport, Milton, Elimsport, Kettle Creek Gorge,
Allenwood, Ralston, Watsontown, Barbours, Lincoln Falls, Shunk, New
Columbia, Montgomery, Muncy, Exchange, Delaware Run, Duboistown,
Hughesville, Loyalsockville and Forksville.

LAT...LON 4157 7659 4099 7667 4106 7709 4153 7703
      4158 7670
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 269DEG 15KT 4147 7696 4114 7700

DeVoir