Areal Flood Advisory 2, NWS Cleveland, OH

Ashland County, OH, Ashtabula County, OH, Crawford County, OH, Cuyahoga County, OH, Geauga County, OH, Hancock County, OH, Holmes County, OH, Huron County, OH, Knox County, OH, Lake County, OH, Lorain County, OH, Mahoning County, OH, Marion County, OH, Medina County, OH, Morrow County, OH, Portage County, OH, Richland County, OH, Sandusky County, OH, Seneca County, OH, Stark County, OH, Summit County, OH, Trumbull County, OH, Wayne County, OH, Wood County, OH, Wyandot County, OH, Crawford County, PA, Erie County, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
316 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front across the southern end of the area will continue to
move south tonight. High pressure over Minnesota early Friday will
pass to the north of the local area by early Saturday. A storm
system will approach the region from the southwest over the
weekend. The low will eventually move over the western Great Lakes
on Tuesday after lifting a warm front across the local area Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
The surface cold front has just about exited the area. Showers
will continue another hour or two and then should be done. Have
had 2 inch plus rainfall reports in both OH and PA today. Although
the threat for more rain is about over...runoff from earlier rains
continues to make it's way into rivers and streams. As a
result...additional rises and new flooding remain possible so will
leave the flood watch as is.

Starting to see some breaks in the overcast over IN. BUFKIT
soundings show a persistent inversion through the evening hours so
any clearing will have to wait till after midnight. Even
then...most of it will occur in the west. Cold air advection is
ongoing and forecast lows in the lower 20s seem reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Decent drying conditions are expected the next couple of days as
high pressure builds in from the north. Will likely see at least
partial sunshine all areas on Friday with seasonable temps. The
models continue to hint at precip encroaching from the south on
Friday night. By daybreak Saturday there is chance of light precip
along and south of the U.S. 30 corridor. Given easterly winds and
temps in the 20s...any precip that does make it this far north
could fall as mixed precip...specifically freezing rain. It's
often tough to overcome dry easterly winds at the surface here so
will keep minimal pops in the south for the time being. There will
be more concern south of the area for the wintry mix. The high
wins out by Saturday evening pushing what precip there may be left back
to the south. Sunday also appears dry and maybe just a tad warmer
than Saturday. Precip chances again will increase Sunday night as low
pressure heads northeast out of the Plains. We could again see
mixed precip overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A wet pattern will continue over the extended period. A quasi-
stationary frontal boundary over the Ohio River Valley will lift
north as a warm front on Monday.  A surface low pressure center over
the Mississippi Valley will move to the west of the forecast area
through Tuesday. A strong moist southerly flow is expected Monday
through Tuesday as this system develops. Showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms are possible for the early part of next week.  I will
keep high probabilities of rain both Monday and Tuesday with the
most significant chances on Tuesday. Another storm system will move
into the Ohio Valley late Wednesday into Thursday. This will keep
scattered precipitation chances into the later part of the week.
Temperatures will remain above normal through the period and may
reach the mid to upper 50s on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Thursday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Complex forecast this afternoon as a cold front moves across the
forecast area. Widespread IFR visibilities and ceilings this
morning over the area. Dense fog near lake erie has also pushed
into CLE and ERI at times. Ceilings are rising to MVFR briefly
ahead of the front. Numerous showers and even a few thunderstorms
are occurring in advance of the front as well. I will keep a
mention of VCTS over the eastern taf sites for the next few hours
until the convection moves east. All sites will drop back to IFR
ceilings behind the front. Widespread ceilings below 1kft behind
the front will move into the area this evening. The IFR shield is
fairly extensive will remain over most of the TAF sites overnight.
Ceilings will begin to rise after 06Z. South winds will gust in
advance of the front to 30 knots. Winds will shift to a northwest
flow behind the front.

OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible Thursday night through Friday and again
Saturday through Saturday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Will allow the small craft on the western basin to end at 4pm as
As the cold front moves east of the lake this evening, high pressure
will build over the region.  Winds will become northwest overnight
10 to 15 knots and remain through most of Friday.  As the high
pressure center shifts to the east Friday night, winds will shift to
the northeast. A light northeast to variable flow is expected
Saturday through Sunday.  A southerly flow will return to Lake Erie
for the early part of next week as a storm system develops to the
west.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flood Watch until 10 PM EST this evening for OHZ011>014-
     020>023-029>033-089.
PA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EST this evening for PAZ001>003.
MARINE...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Kubina
NEAR TERM...Kubina
SHORT TERM...Kubina
LONG TERM...Garnet
AVIATION...Garnet
MARINE...Garnet

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
400 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

OHZ003-006>010-017>019-027-028-036>038-047-130900-
LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE-LORAIN-HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-WYANDOT-
CRAWFORD-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
400 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST OHIO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MODERATE RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES TODAY. RISES IN AREA
STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

OHZ011>014-020>023-029>033-089-PAZ001>003-130900-
CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-
NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD-
400 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FLOOD WATCH.

WINDS COULD GUST TO 40 MPH THIS MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-130900-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE NEARSHORE WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
400 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1159 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

OHZ013-014-020>023-121800-
Trumbull-Ashtabula Inland-Summit-Portage-Geauga-Medina-
1159 AM EST THU JAN 12 2017

...Heavy showers WILL AFFECT WESTERN TRUMBULL...NORTHERN
SUMMIT...SOUTHERN ASHTABULA...SOUTHERN GEAUGA...PORTAGE AND EAST
CENTRAL MEDINA COUNTIES...

Through 1 PM a line of heavy showers will drop another 0.75 to 1.25
inches of rain on already saturated ground which will enhance
ongoing flooding especially in northern Portage County near Mantua
Hiram and Garrettsville.

Locations impacted include...
Akron, Ravenna, Cuyahoga Falls, Kent, Solon, Hudson, Wadsworth,
Twinsburg, Tallmadge, Streetsboro, Macedonia, Newton Falls, South
Russell, Middlefield, Garrettsville, North Bloomfield, Orwell,
Burton, Mantua and West Farmington.

Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

LAT...LON 4170 8053 4113 8099 4105 8183 4135 8146
      4135 8139 4140 8140 4142 8137
TIME...MOT...LOC 1654Z 180DEG 0KT 4128 8119

LaPlante

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
138 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     TSTM WND GST     VIENNA                  41.26N 80.68W
01/12/2017  M58.00 MPH       TRUMBULL           OH   ASOS

            A 58 MPH THUNDERSTORM WIND GUST WAS MEASURED BY AN
            AUTOMATED SENSOR AT THE YOUNGSTOWN-WARREN REGIONAL
            AIRPORT.

&&

KUBINA

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
504 PM EST THU JAN 12 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0503 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MANSFIELD               40.76N 82.53W
01/12/2017  M0.00 INCH       RICHLAND           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            3.28 INCHES OF RAIN FOR 48 HOURS.

&&

LW