Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
339 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low just north of the area will drift south into early
this weekend while a weak surface pressure pattern resides
across the region. Atlantic high pressure will remain the
dominant weather feature into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Convection trying to organize coming into inland portions of the
forecast area from the SC Midlands on the backside of an upper
level low, which is expected to move south toward the SC coast
overnight. Sufficient shear/instability is supporting the
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and we could see a few
severe storms as this ongoing convection merges with the sea
breeze. Looks like best chances of severe weather will be near
and north of the Savannah River. Otherwise it should be quiet
after these storms end early this evening, although could see
more develop late as the upper low approaches, especially across
SC. Most areas should only fall into the mid 70s for overnight
lows, although some lower 70s are possible inland, especially in
rain-cooled areas. Also can't rule out a little light ground
fog, mainly in areas that pick up rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak upper low will saunter south from near the Carolina coast
towards northern Florida as surface lee troughing becomes
established inland. Being situated between this inland trough and
the Bermuda High offshore will result in persistent south to
southwest surface flow, keeping sufficient low-level moisture
over the area. Mainly isolated coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is anticipated, primarily each afternoon along the
seabreeze, barring any mesoscale influences. Slightly above
normal temperatures are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Large-scale ridging will be overhead for the first part of the week
before modest height falls occur mid week in response to a trough
passing north of the area. Atlantic high pressure will remain in
control at the surface, with strengthening inland troughing
promoting stronger moisture advection. POPs will trend from below
climo Sunday toward more normal values by middle of next week as the
deep layer ridging weakens. Temps will likewise trend toward normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR will persist through 18Z Thursday at KSAV/KCHS. Chances have
increased a bit for some impacts from thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly at KCHS from around 21-00Z, so will continue
to monitor radar trends and amend as needed. Also, small risk of
MVFR cigs, mainly this afternoon and late tonight but confidence
too low to mention.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak low-level pressure pattern expected over the
waters through tonight as an upper low pressure system moves
south over the coastal waters. No significant winds/seas are
anticipated across the local waters outside thunderstorms which
are more likely near the SC coast through this evening and again
late tonight.

Wednesday through Sunday: Coastal waters will remain on the western
periphery of the Bermuda High through the period. Primarily S to SW
winds between 5 and 10 knots are expected, with seas ranging 2 to 4
feet, with some gustiness possible each afternoon due to the
seabreeze. A strengthening inland trough may result in sufficient
tightening of the pressure gradient to raise winds to 15 to 20 knots
this weekend into early next week, but at this time conditions
appear to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tide levels late this week into early next week due to the
lunar perigee and new moon will result in the possibility for minor
coastal flooding during the evening high tides, especially along the
SC coast.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...JMC/RJB
MARINE...JMC/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
958 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-201400-
Coastal Bryan-Coastal Chatham-Coastal Liberty-Coastal McIntosh-
Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
958 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Coastal Flooding: Tide levels will be elevated late this
week into early next week due to the lunar perigee and new moon.
Minor saltwater flooding of low-lying areas could occur during the
evening high tides, and Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-
SCZ040-042>045-047-052-201400-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 nm-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 nm-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 nm...including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 nm-Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Inland Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Inland McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Tidal Berkeley-
958 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
547 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0514 PM     HAIL             HANAHAN                 32.92N  80.00W
07/19/2017  E1.25 INCH       BERKELEY           SC   PUBLIC

            A PUBLIC REPORT OF PEA TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL IN
            HANAHAN. REPORT RELAYED THE NWS GSP OFFICE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1700478

BSH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
558 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

SCZ048-049-192230-
Coastal Colleton-Beaufort-
558 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF BEAUFORT AND COLLETON
COUNTIES...

At 558 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Bennetts Point
to Beaufort Marine Corps Air Station, and moving southwest at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Beaufort, Port Royal, Edisto Beach, Bennetts Point, Shell Point,
Burton, Ladys Island and Beaufort Marine Corps Air Station.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Report damage directly to the Charleston National Weather Service at
1-888-383-2024 when it is safe to do so. You can also email your
report to nws.charlestonsc@noaa.gov.

&&

LAT...LON 3246 8031 3242 8034 3244 8040 3243 8041
      3241 8040 3236 8081 3252 8076 3262 8039
      3257 8039 3255 8042 3249 8033 3253 8035
      3251 8031 3252 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 025DEG 10KT 3258 8038 3249 8072