Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
339 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper low just north of the area will drift south into early
this weekend while a weak surface pressure pattern resides
across the region. Atlantic high pressure will remain the
dominant weather feature into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Convection trying to organize coming into inland portions of the
forecast area from the SC Midlands on the backside of an upper
level low, which is expected to move south toward the SC coast
overnight. Sufficient shear/instability is supporting the
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and we could see a few
severe storms as this ongoing convection merges with the sea
breeze. Looks like best chances of severe weather will be near
and north of the Savannah River. Otherwise it should be quiet
after these storms end early this evening, although could see
more develop late as the upper low approaches, especially across
SC. Most areas should only fall into the mid 70s for overnight
lows, although some lower 70s are possible inland, especially in
rain-cooled areas. Also can't rule out a little light ground
fog, mainly in areas that pick up rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak upper low will saunter south from near the Carolina coast
towards northern Florida as surface lee troughing becomes
established inland. Being situated between this inland trough and
the Bermuda High offshore will result in persistent south to
southwest surface flow, keeping sufficient low-level moisture
over the area. Mainly isolated coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is anticipated, primarily each afternoon along the
seabreeze, barring any mesoscale influences. Slightly above
normal temperatures are expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Large-scale ridging will be overhead for the first part of the week
before modest height falls occur mid week in response to a trough
passing north of the area. Atlantic high pressure will remain in
control at the surface, with strengthening inland troughing
promoting stronger moisture advection. POPs will trend from below
climo Sunday toward more normal values by middle of next week as the
deep layer ridging weakens. Temps will likewise trend toward normal
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR will persist through 18Z Thursday at KSAV/KCHS. Chances have
increased a bit for some impacts from thunderstorms this
afternoon, mainly at KCHS from around 21-00Z, so will continue
to monitor radar trends and amend as needed. Also, small risk of
MVFR cigs, mainly this afternoon and late tonight but confidence
too low to mention.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: A weak low-level pressure pattern expected over the
waters through tonight as an upper low pressure system moves
south over the coastal waters. No significant winds/seas are
anticipated across the local waters outside thunderstorms which
are more likely near the SC coast through this evening and again
late tonight.

Wednesday through Sunday: Coastal waters will remain on the western
periphery of the Bermuda High through the period. Primarily S to SW
winds between 5 and 10 knots are expected, with seas ranging 2 to 4
feet, with some gustiness possible each afternoon due to the
seabreeze. A strengthening inland trough may result in sufficient
tightening of the pressure gradient to raise winds to 15 to 20 knots
this weekend into early next week, but at this time conditions
appear to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Elevated tide levels late this week into early next week due to the
lunar perigee and new moon will result in the possibility for minor
coastal flooding during the evening high tides, especially along the
SC coast.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...CEB
AVIATION...JMC/RJB
MARINE...JMC/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
958 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

GAZ117-119-139-141-SCZ048>051-201400-
Coastal Bryan-Coastal Chatham-Coastal Liberty-Coastal McIntosh-
Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-Coastal Jasper-
958 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Coastal Flooding: Tide levels will be elevated late this
week into early next week due to the lunar perigee and new moon.
Minor saltwater flooding of low-lying areas could occur during the
evening high tides, and Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

AMZ330-350-352-354-374-GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-140-
SCZ040-042>045-047-052-201400-
Charleston Harbor-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 nm-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 nm-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 nm...including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 nm-Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Inland Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Inland McIntosh-
Allendale-Hampton-Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Inland Berkeley-
Inland Jasper-Tidal Berkeley-
958 AM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters,
southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter assistance is not anticipated at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
303 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

SCZ040-191930-
Allendale-
303 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF ALLENDALE COUNTY...

At 302 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated a
strong thunderstorm near Ulmer, or 8 miles southeast of Barnwell,
moving south at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of this storm include...
Allendale, Sycamore, Ulmer and Seigling.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3305 8113 3305 8110 3303 8108 3302 8110
      3297 8135 3311 8136 3311 8129 3312 8124
      3312 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 1902Z 001DEG 8KT 3315 8127

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston SC
402 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

SCZ043-192030-
Inland Colleton-
402 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF COLLETON COUNTY...

At 402 PM EDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from Smoaks to near
Canadys, and moving southeast at 10 mph.

  HAZARD...strong winds 45 to 55 mph and excessive cloud to ground
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light, unsecured objects. All outdoor activities should
           cease. Move indoors immediately.

Some locations in the path of these storms include...
Smoaks, Williams, Padgetts, Canadys and Ruffin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify. Be certain to monitor local radio and TV
stations as well as local cable TV outlets for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3317 8075 3315 8070 3311 8067 3307 8062
      3306 8059 3306 8056 3302 8051 3293 8070
      3306 8090 3309 8088 3313 8089 3318 8079
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 310DEG 11KT 3311 8083 3304 8067