Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
254 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push into the forecast area late tonight then move
offshore on Tuesday, with weak high pressure prevailing through
Tuesday night. A warm front will lift through on Wednesday, followed
by a strong cold front clearing the area by early Thursday. Cooler
high pressure will prevail into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of our area.

Severe Weather Potential: Radar and surface observations show
severe thunderstorms with some tornado warning across much of
the Southeast. Thermodynamics appear conducive for maintenance
of the squall line with MLCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg, impressive
shear with robust low and mid level wind fields to arrive. 0-6
km shear of 45-55 kt suggests that damaging winds are the main
threat with storms, but steepening mid level lapse rates and
favorable CAPE within the hail growth zone also support some
storms with large hail.

Discrete supercells are forming in areas where, the 0-1 km
shear is 30-40 kt, SRH both in the 0-1km and 0-3 km layer is
greater than 200-300 ms/secs and EHI is 2-3. Also the models
have a Sig Tor values of 2 or 3. These conditions support a risk
for a few tornadoes from these supercells. However, the squall
line moving in from the west will likely merge with the discrete
cells as the afternoon progresses.

The most likely timing of any severe weather is from now until 9
PM.

Rainfall: A rapid SW to NE storm motion will likely prevent any
major flood concerns. But with PWat in excess of the 90th
percentile for this time of year there certainly could be some
minor flooding concerns. We stayed close to the WPC forecast of
rainfall, which shows average amounts of 3/4 to 1 1/4 inches
this afternoon and tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tuesday and Tuesday night: Southwesterly flow will prevail aloft
through the day and the first part of the overnight, before the
pattern begins to amplify late. The frontal zone, and the deeper
moisture and ongoing precipitation, looks to start the day aligned
near the coast or just offshore. At this point it looks like Tuesday
will be dry with any lingering showers confined to the coastal
waters. Warm west-southwest flow will prevail and highs are expected
to top out in the mid 80s. Weak high pressure will build in from the
north through the overnight. The aforementioned front will begin to
lift back to the north as a warm front late, and isolated showers
will be possible across the southern portion of the forecast area
closer to the Altamaha. Lows will be mild, ranging from around 60
north to the mid 60s south.

Wednesday and Wednesday night: Another very active day with
potential severe weather is expected. The models shows a vigorous
shortwave passing through in the southwesterly flow around the main
trough over the Upper Midwest. The warm front will lift north of the
area in the morning and warm/moist environment will become
widespread by the afternoon. Model progs show a rapidly
destabilizing atmosphere with 2500-3000 J/kg of CAPE and 40-50 knots
of 0-6km shear. Wind profiles show good veering of the flow with
height and steep mid level lapse rates with notable amounts of hail
CAPE. Needless to say it looks like a significant severe event is
possible, and this makes sense given the Day 3 Enhanced/Slight risk
for the forecast area. Will maintain the severe mention in the HWO.
Heavy rain and flooding could also become a concern, especially
after potentially locally heavy rain on Monday. Overnight, the cold
front will sweep through late and could bring additional showers and
storms along the actual front. Will maintain a blanket likely PoP
overnight.

Thursday: The cold front will push offshore Thursday morning and a
tight pressure gradient will support strong surface winds through
the day. We could see a few wrap around showers, but rain chances
are limited to the slight chance to chance range. Temperatures will
feel much cooler than previous days, though values will be near
normal. Strong wind gusts are expected and a Wind Advisory could be
needed for gusts of 35 mph or stronger. A Lake Wind Advisory will
almost certainly be needed even if a Wind Advisory isn't.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A strong low pressure system will remain over the northeastern
states on Friday before lifting out to sea early in the weekend.
High pressure will build in wake of the system and much drier air
will move into the area. Rain chances are essentially non-existent.
Temperatures will be cooler than normal early in the period then
moderate a bit as the surface high shifts into the Atlantic and
southerly return flow sets up.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ceilings have lowered to low-end VFR or high-end MVFR, in
advance of a strong line of severe TSRA approaching from the
west. This line of storms is expected to impact KSAV between
21-23Z and KCSH between ending 22-00Z. Expect at least MVFR
with brief IFR in moderate to heavy rains and potential gusts
in excess of 40 kt. The TAFs will be amended as the storms get
closer and timing/impacts become more definite. Following the
line of storms, conditions will improve. However, late night
stratus will impact the airfields behind the main band of
convection that pulls away after midnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Restrictions in showers/thunderstorms
possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: Southerly winds have increased ahead of an
approaching cold front. S winds will veer further to the SW
tonight, with highest winds of 20-30 kt to occur. Seas will
build considerably within the favorable fetch, achieving 6 or 7
ft within 20 nm, but up to 8 or 9 ft on the outer GA waters.
These winds are also supportive of 2-3 ft waves in Charleston
Harbor.

Mariners are advised that strong or even severe t-storms are
possible after 5 or 6 pm today into the first part of tonight.
Damaging winds, frequent lightning strikes and maybe even
isolated large hail and waterspouts can occur.

Tuesday through Saturday: Conditions will steadily improve on
Tuesday as winds/seas come down in the morning. The lingering Small
Craft Advisories for the Charleston County waters and the outer
Georgia waters will end in the early afternoon. Winds will stay
elevated in the 15-20 knot range through the day, but diminish
further overnight. Southerly winds will increase behind a warm front
on Wednesday, and will rapidly deteriorate late Wednesday night and
especially Thursday behind a strong cold front. Winds will be
strongest and from the west-southwest on Thursday in the cold
advection with 25-30 knots of flow expected. There is also a chance
we could see a period of gales. Conditions will remain elevated
through Friday, before improving Sunday as high pressure builds in
and the low finally departs.

Rip Currents: Winds alone are enough to cause at least an
enhanced risk of rip currents today, but due to lingering swell
energy, we have opted to go with a high risk of rip currents at
all beaches. This means that no one should enter the surf due to
the dangerous conditions.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ048>051.
     Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for SCZ045.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ330-352-354.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ350-374.

&&

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston SC
502 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

GAZ141-042115-
Coastal McIntosh-
502 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Risk for Rip Currents.

Severe Weather: A squall line will likely move through early
this evening. The main weather hazards are damaging winds and large
hail, but a few tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms: Another round of severe weather is possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low pressure system impacts the
area. The primary hazards are damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

SCZ048>050-042115-
Beaufort-Coastal Colleton-Charleston-
502 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 120 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Risk for Rip Currents.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms: Another round of severe weather is possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low pressure system impacts the
area. The primary hazards are damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

GAZ117-119-139-SCZ051-042115-
Coastal Bryan-Coastal Chatham-Coastal Liberty-Coastal Jasper-
502 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 119 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   High Risk for Rip Currents.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms: Another round of severe weather is possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low pressure system impacts the
area. The primary hazards are damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

GAZ140-042115-
Inland McIntosh-
502 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe Weather: A squall line will likely move through early
this evening. The main weather hazards are damaging winds and large
hail, but a few tornadoes are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms: Another round of severe weather is possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low pressure system impacts the
area. The primary hazards are damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

GAZ087-088-099>101-114>116-118-137-138-SCZ040-042-047-042115-
Jenkins-Screven-Candler-Bulloch-Effingham-Tattnall-Evans-
Inland Bryan-Inland Chatham-Long-Inland Liberty-Allendale-Hampton-
Inland Jasper-
502 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 119 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Georgia and
southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms: Another round of severe weather is possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low pressure system impacts the
area. The primary hazards are damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

SCZ043-044-052-042115-
Inland Colleton-Dorchester-Tidal Berkeley-
502 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 120 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms: Another round of severe weather is possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low pressure system impacts the
area. The primary hazards are damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ350-352-354-374-042115-
Waters from South Santee River to Edisto Beach SC out 20 nm-
Waters from Edisto Beach SC to Savannah GA out 20 nm-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA out 20 nm...including
Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary-
Waters from Savannah GA to Altamaha Sound GA extending from 20 to
60 nm-
502 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Severe Weather: A squall line will likely move through early
this evening. The main weather hazards are damaging winds and large
hail, but a few waterspouts are also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms: Another round of severe weather possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low pressure system impacts the
area. The primary hazards are damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated waterspouts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

AMZ330-042115-
Charleston Harbor-
502 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 120 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms: Another round of severe weather possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low pressure system impacts the
area. The primary hazards are damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated waterspouts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

SCZ045-042115-
Inland Berkeley-
502 PM EDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...LAKE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 120 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Wind Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Severe thunderstorms: Another round of severe weather is possible
Wednesday into Wednesday night as a low pressure system impacts the
area. The primary hazards are damaging winds, large hail, and
isolated tornadoes.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please relay any reports of hazardous weather including, but not
limited to large hail, damaging winds and flooding to the National
Weather Service in Charleston at 1-888-383-2024.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
413 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SW RICHMOND HILL      31.93N  81.31W
04/03/2017  E60 MPH          BRYAN              GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A SPOTTER REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH A PASSING
            THUNDERSTORM.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1700097

DPB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
428 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0331 PM     HAIL             1 SW MCINTOSH           31.81N  81.54W
04/03/2017  M2.00 INCH       LIBERTY            GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TRAINED SPOTTER RELAYED A PICTURE OF 2 HAIL STONES
            RANGING FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. THE PICTURE WAS
            FROM EVERSON LANE IN MIDWAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1700098

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
431 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0338 PM     HAIL             5 SE REGISTER           32.32N  81.83W
04/03/2017  E1.25 INCH       BULLOCH            GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LOCAL MEDIA RELAYED A VIEWER REPORT OF HAIL THE SIZE OF
            QUARTES OR SLIGHTLY LARGER NEAR REGISTER.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1700099

BSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
433 PM EDT MON APR 03 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0415 PM     TSTM WND GST     PLANTATION PARK         32.65N  81.59W
04/03/2017  M47 MPH          SCREVEN            GA   AWOS

            THE AWOS SITE KJYL MEASURED A 41 KNOT WIND GUST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER CHS1700100

BSH

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