Special Weather Statement, NWS Columbia, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
432 PM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough across the area and high moisture will result in
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms which may
linger through Tuesday. Thunderstorms more isolated by midweek
as ridge builds over the area. Temperatures will warm to well
above normal by the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Frontal boundary remains north of the area this afternoon. Air
mass remains moist and moderately unstable. Precipitable water
near 2 inches across the east CWA. Short wave trough
approaching from the northwest. Radar showing scattered showers
developing. Severe thunderstorm potential appears lower than
yesterday with weak shear and weaker instability. However there
remains a heavy rain threat. Strong short wave trough over
southern Alabama. Convection along the FL panhandle may advect
northeast as short wave lifts toward the region. This is
supported by latest HRRR. Will continue mention of high chance
to likely pops most of the area although late today the chance
may decrease in the Piedmont. Convection should diminish 03z-
06z. Overnight lows in the low 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Weak surface trough remains across the area. This will remain
the focusing mechanism for additional showers and thunderstorms
through Monday. Positively tilted upper level trough over the
eastern CONUS through the period. Relatively cold aloft with 500
mb temperatures to -10C. So steep low-mid level lapse rates
supports resulting in moderate to possible strong instability. Although
shear remains weak...pulse severe possible. Some drier air may
advect in across the north Midlands. Highs around 90 both days.
overnight lows in the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Models still indicating the potential for a weak cut-off upper
low developing over the area Tuesday through Wednesday as the
cwa gets squeezed between the strong ridge across the central US
and another ridge in the western Atlantic. By Thursday the
ridge west of the region appears to strengthen and move
eastward, pushing the upper low out of the area late in the
period. Still expecting the convection to become more diurnal
and more scattered to isolated later in the week. Temperatures
near normal early in the period but warming trend late week to
above normal again. Expect temperatures near 100 degrees by next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Variable conditions through much of the TAF period.

Stalled frontal boundary remains across the area with showers
and thunderstorms moving through the area. Main concern is a
group of thunderstorms moving toward AGS/DNL from the south and
arriving around 22z. Other concern will again be wind gusts
potential...however potential is lower than yesterday.
Convection will diminish with sunset with potential for stratus
and fog to develop through the early morning hours. Cloud cover
will again lessen impacts...however have remained with MVFR
vsbys at CAE/CUB/DNL and IFR at AGS/OGB. Conditions will return
to VFR by 15z with another round of convection expected to begin
around 18z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Showers and thunderstorms with
associated restrictions expected Monday as a front remains
stalled over the area. Low confidence in showers and
thunderstorms Tuesday through Thursday. Restrictions also
possible in late night/early morning stratus and fog each day.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
316 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-170730-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Lancaster-Chesterfield-
McCormick-Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-
Richland-Lee-Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-
Bamberg-
316 AM EDT Sun Jul 16 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms through Tonight could possibly contain strong to
damaging winds, along with heavy rain with localized flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Monday, A few thunderstorms with damaging wind will be possible
along a decaying surface front. The storms may also contain heavy
rain with localized flooding.

Friday and Saturday, heat index values may climb back above 105
degrees in many areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
550 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

SCZ022-028-162230-
Kershaw-Richland-
550 PM EDT SUN JUL 16 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN LEXINGTON...CENTRAL
RICHLAND AND SOUTHWESTERN KERSHAW COUNTIES...

At 549 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Fort Jackson,
or near Woodfields, moving west at 5 mph.

Winds up to 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Columbia, West Columbia, Cayce, Forest Acres, Dentsville, St.
Andrews, Woodfields, Arcadia Lakes, Five Points, Woodfield, Fort
Jackson and Seven Oaks.

Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding and ponding of water on roadways. Do not drive
your vehicle through flooded roadways.

LAT...LON 3407 8066 3391 8101 3392 8103 3393 8102
      3400 8105 3401 8107 3401 8109 3407 8114
      3422 8085
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 074DEG 5KT 3409 8086

CJR

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